Sunrise 6:37 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 1:20 PM   Moonset 1:50 AM

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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 216 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Tonight - West winds 5 to 10 knots, diminishing to around 5 knots after midnight, then becoming south late. Bay and inland waters light chop. Friday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. Friday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. Saturday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Saturday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Sunday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Sunday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Monday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Monday night - Northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming north after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Tuesday - North winds around 5 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 216 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis - West to northwest winds today shift back to the southwest Friday as a frontal boundary lifts northward across the area. Another storm system will bring increasing rain chances for the waters over the weekend. No headlines are expected, though winds and seas will be higher in showers and Thunderstorms.

FXUS62 KTBW 161816 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 216 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

DISCUSSION
Flow aloft over the region this afternoon has become nearly zonal, with the surface frontal boundary sitting across the Florida peninsula. South of this boundary and mainly over Lee county, some showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to be possible while relatively drier air has taken hold to the north. This boundary will start to lift back northward tonight as another storm system begins to develop to our west. Low-level flow turns back to southwest through Friday, with increasing moisture once again. The main question for tomorrow's forecast will be rain chances. It would make sense that moisture pooling along the boundary would lead to some rain chances and a few other higher- res models are indicating a weakening MCS moving across the northern Gulf coast region, all of which would likely lead to some shower activity and maybe a few storms. Whatever does develop would then generally push inland with the southwest winds in place.

For Saturday, southwest flow continues across the local area, with warm and humid conditions persisting. Some showers and storms can be expected in the afternoon, but these will again favor interior locations. The frontal boundary associated with the next storm system will move into north Florida Saturday night into Sunday, with increasing shower and storm chances for the northern half of the forecast area. The boundary very slowly shifts southward through Sunday and Sunday night with rain chances moving with it.

A surface low tries to develop off the northeast Florida coast early next week, which will help keep rain chances in the forecast through Monday. Some drier air then moves in for Tuesday and more so for Wednesday, with rain chances confined more to southwest Florida.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
A frontal boundary draped across the region this afternoon will gradually lift northward tonight through Friday, with some sprinkles or light showers possible. At this time, impacts to TAF sites are not expected to be significant, so have left out of the forecast.
Also seeing some indications of possible patchy fog or low clouds near southwest Florida sites, but confidence is on the low side.
Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions can be expected.

MARINE
West to northwest winds today shift back to the southwest Friday as a frontal boundary lifts northward across the area. Another storm system will bring increasing rain chances for the waters over the weekend. No headlines are expected, though winds and seas will be higher in showers and thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER
No Red Flag concerns for the next several days as relative humidity values will remain above normal. A frontal boundary over the region will move north through Friday and then another storm system will bring increasing rain chances for the area through this weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 76 91 79 92 / 10 10 0 20 FMY 77 93 78 95 / 10 10 0 20 GIF 71 95 75 96 / 0 20 0 30 SRQ 76 91 77 93 / 10 10 0 20 BKV 66 93 71 94 / 0 20 0 30 SPG 79 89 81 90 / 10 10 0 20

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.

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Hillsborough Bay
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Thu -- 02:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:37 AM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:43 AM EDT     1.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:20 PM EDT     1.93 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:40 PM EDT     2.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hillsborough Bay, Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa)
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:18 AM EDT     -0.89 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:56 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:08 AM EDT     0.90 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 12:24 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:57 PM EDT     -0.46 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:35 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:09 PM EDT     0.46 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:59 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa), Florida Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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