Sunrise 6:40 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 10:32 AM   Moonset 12:04 AM

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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 821 Pm Edt Mon May 13 2024
Rest of tonight - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early this evening. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Tuesday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters choppy. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Wednesday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Wednesday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Thursday - West winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning. Thursday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Friday - South winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Friday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Saturday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 821 Pm Edt Mon May 13 2024
Synopsis - High pressure will shift further out into the atlantic and allow a cold front to approach our area over the next couple of days. Ahead of this cold front, multiple rounds of showers and Thunderstorms will be possible across the gulf waters with the first round moving into the waters this evening and the second round on Tuesday. Isolated waterspouts, strong winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning will be possible with this activity. In addition, winds may approach exercise cautionary levels on Tuesday outside of Thunderstorms as southerly winds increase ahead of the cold front's arrival by Wednesday. The cold front will keep a chance for showers and storms into Wednesday before lower rain chances arrive later this week as high pressure builds in.

FXUS62 KTBW 132357 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 757 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 757 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Strong shear and steep lapse rates above an inversion allowed for several strong thunderstorms to break through the cap this afternoon over the interior, with several reports of hail up to the size of golf balls coming in from Polk County. While these storms shift east and inland, the next round of thunderstorms is already pushing southeast into the Nature Coast and adjacent Gulf waters early this evening. High resolution models are depicting these storms pushing into the Interstate 4 corridor this evening and overnight, but dissipating before reaching southwest Florida.
The parade of active weather does not end there, however, with a series of shortwaves continuing to bring several rounds of storms into the forecast area Tuesday through Thursday.

Some minor adjustments were made to the rain chances for the next few hours to keep up with radar trends. Otherwise, the forecast looks on track, and no other significant changes are planned for the evening update.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 757 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

As storms over the interior shift east and away from TAF sites this evening, another band of thunderstorms over the Gulf is approaching Tampa Bay area terminals and could impact mainly KTPA and KPIE overnight, but should dissipate before making it farther south or east. With that line of dissipating storms, some MVFR ceilings will also be possible between 08-15z Tuesday morning, mainly around KTPA, KPIE, KLAL, and KSRQ. Another round of showers or storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening, with the highest chances again around KTPA, KPIE, KLAL, and KSRQ.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Scattered convection will continue to increase in coverage across interior areas later today as the sea breeze spreads inland and collides with the east coast sea breeze. A few strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail will be possible with this activity given CAPE values in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, 0-6 km bulk shear values of 40-50 kts, and 500mb temps around -8C. Meanwhile, there is potential for additional convective activity from an upstream MCS that is tracking across the FL Panhandle/northern Gulf coast region this afternoon. While there still remains uncertainty on the intensity of this complex and how organized it will be by the time is approaches the coast this evening, recent trends do suggest that the activity should generally be on a weakening trend as it becomes increasingly removed from the better upper support to the north. That said, there will still be a possibility of strong wind gusts, hail, and isolated tornadoes/waterspouts as this activity moves through this evening.

After tonight's wave of convection, we will have another MCS to watch as models show another complex of storms organizing overnight across east TX/LA and eventually sliding across the northern Gulf coast into Tuesday as an upper level trough swings across the Mississippi Valley. This secondary MCS has the potential to be a bit more potent with increased forcing for ascent with the approach of the upper trough and an environment that will be characterized by strong dynamics with plenty of shear. While there remains substantial uncertainty in the track of the MCS and how well it can hold together, this will be something that will need to be monitored closely as there could a damaging wind and tornado risk should this feature maintain its intensity. As a result, the latest Day 2 Outlook from SPC has placed portions Levy County in a Slight risk and a Marginal risk extending southward into Tampa Bay.

The cold front associated with the aforementioned upper level trough will approach our area Tuesday night and around central Florida into Wednesday. This frontal boundary will provide a focus for additional convection on Wednesday with models showing good instability with values up to around 2000 J/kg, 500mb temps around -9C/-10C, and an active subtropical jet of 70-80 kts. Thus, another round of strong to severe storms remains possible and will include a larger portion of the CWA with nearly everywhere included in a Marginal risk except Charlotte and Lee counties where damaging winds and hail will be the primary threats.

Somewhat quieter weather arrives late in the week as ridging moves across the region Thursday, though there should be enough deeper moisture to support additional shower and storm chances for at least areas south of I-4 where the better moisture quality is expected to be. However, models show the quasi-situational frontal boundary across north central Florida lifting back north as a warm front on Friday as surface low pressure moves across the MS Valley. This feature appears to keep the active weather streak in place into the weekend as the system will push a cold front towards the area with another round of convection expected.

MARINE
Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

High pressure will shift further out into the Atlantic and allow a cold front to approach our area over the next couple of days.
Ahead of this cold front, multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the Gulf waters with the first round expected this evening and the second around on Tuesday. Isolated waterspouts, strong winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning will be possible with this activity. In addition, winds may approach exercise cautionary levels on Tuesday outside of thunderstorms as southerly winds increase ahead of the cold front's arrival by Wednesday. The cold front will keep a chance for showers and storms into Wednesday before lower rain chances arrive later this week as high pressure builds in

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Deeper moisture has moved back into the area and RH values are expected to remain above critical levels, though values may drop into the upper 30 percent range at times mainly for areas south of I-4 over the next couple of days. Otherwise, several rounds of thunderstorms will move across the area with the first occurring tonight and the second on Tuesday with highest rain chances across the Nature Coast. Better rain chances then arrive area-wide by Wednesday as a cold front stalls across the region.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 90 79 87 / 30 40 50 70 FMY 77 92 78 91 / 10 10 20 50 GIF 74 95 76 90 / 40 40 40 70 SRQ 77 90 78 88 / 20 20 30 70 BKV 70 93 72 88 / 50 60 50 70 SPG 80 88 80 86 / 20 40 50 70

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Mon -- 01:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:19 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:32 AM EDT     0.90 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:46 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:26 AM EDT     -0.04 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 11:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:08 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:58 PM EDT     0.71 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:38 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:23 PM EDT     -1.09 knots Max Ebb
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