Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Melbourne Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 6:19PM Saturday February 23, 2019 9:31 AM EST (14:31 UTC) Moonrise 10:52PMMoonset 9:52AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 326 Am Est Sat Feb 23 2019
Today..South winds 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers in the morning.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Monday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Monday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Chance of showers.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Chance of showers.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 326 Am Est Sat Feb 23 2019
Synopsis..High pressure centered east of the bahamas will generate a gentle to moderate south to southeast breeze today. Offshore flow will develop Sunday as a weak cold front pushes into north florida. The front will reach central florida Sunday night, stalling to the south on Monday, leading to hazardous marine conditions as a northerly wind surge approaches the atlantic waters.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Thursday february 21st. 42 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 29 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 9 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Melbourne Beach, FL
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location: 28.06, -80.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 230748
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
248 am est Sat feb 23 2019

Well above normal temperatures continue this weekend...

Discussion
Today... Central florida will remain on the western periphery of a
large ridge centered just east of the bahamas. Higher moisture
trapped beneath a sharp inversion around 750 mb (7500-8000 feet)
will increase cloud cover and introduce a slightly better chance
for showers relative to Friday. Will keep a small chance for
showers along the space and treasure coasts this morning before
transitioning coverage toward the interior as daytime heating
kicks in. Pops for today will average around 20% areawide, with
better chances (30-40%) expected to hold off until around sunset
along the i-4 corridor. Unusually warm temps continue, though
records will likely remain out of reach given the expected
increase in cloud cover.

Tonight... A closed low moving toward the great lakes and its
attendant surface front advancing across the southeast states
will force the ridge to weaken retreat some overnight. As low-
level winds veer to the south and southwest, an area of weak
convergence is expected to develop in the vicinity of the
interstate 4 corridor. Did not stray far from both mesoscale global
guidance and kept the best chance (30-40%) for showers across
this area. Tapered pops to less than 20% south of titusville and
kissimmee where coverage looks low.

Sun-mon... Deep layer ridging with center just east of the bahamas
will flatten with flow becoming more zonal across the region as
occasional impulses aloft traverse the fl peninsula. The surface
ridge axis across the southern peninsula will get shunted further
east and south with the approach of a cold front that will pass
through ecfl Sun night. This front will maintain its identity but
remain stymied over the fl straits south fl through the remainder of
this period. Initial light swrly surface winds will veer wrly into
late Sun afternoon then NW N Sun night, post-frontal. As high
pressure noses in from the NW during the day on Mon winds will
continue to veer to NE ene E through Mon night. Wind speeds may
increase to around 15 mph on sun, but will increase to 15-20 mph
with higher gusts on Mon as the pressure gradient tightens between
the former front and fairly stout high pressure to the north.

Mid-upper level support for this approaching front will be minimal
and models are not too excited for precip. Have kept a generous
20pct (schc) mention in during the day and early evening over land
trending drier from west to east Sun night. Maintain a schc martin
county on Mon for residual moisture and proximity to front across
south fl. Continue to keep mention of thunder out of the forecast
through this point.

Will need to watch for near record highs for one more day on sun
before cooler temperatures behind the front filter southward sun
night and mon. Maxes well into the 80s on sun, then l-m 70s for
highs on mon, with coastal volusia n. Brevard perhaps struggling
into the u60s. Mins Sun night Mon morning in the l-m 60s except m-
u50s north of i-4. Mins Mon night Tue morning in the 50s l60s most
of the interior except m60s coastal st. Lucie martin counties and
adjacent barrier islands.

Tue-fri... Zonal flow in the mid-levels through the extended
timeframe. Subtle mid-level impulses will traverse the region.

Medium range models trying to figure out when to usher previous
frontal boundary back northward with associated moisture and precip.

Placement, timing of features (surface aloft) still uncertain as
consistency with medium range models not quite there yet. It is
becoming more apparent that moisture will begin to override this
boundary northward late Mon night into Tue as pwats surge to 1.40
inches north of i-4 to near 1.90 inches martin county. We maintain
an easterly surface flow with a light southerly component through
the low-levels. Expect a tightening precip gradient with schc
(20pct) i-4 corridor to 50pct south of vero beach. Mid-levels fairly
cool and cannot rule out isold lightning storms, but not going to
include mention in grids zones just yet. We continue the gradual
trend of increasing precip chances northward Tue night as the
boundary moves northward into south-central fl. Confident enough to
bump the i-4 corridor up to 30pct and 40-50pct southward.

Models insistent on Wed being a wet day with 50pct pops areawide and
the surface boundary very slowly moving northward. The position of
the boundary into past mid-week will be key to where higher precip
values are as pieces of energy embedded within the zonal flow
continue to traverse the region. Keeping elevated pops (40pct) in
areawide on Thu as a result. The rather stubborn unsettled pattern
may very well continue into Fri though trend of moisture surges
combined with disturbances aloft remain tricky to time. For now will
keep 30-40pct mention in the forecast. Still would not be surprised
to see isold mention of thunder in a few periods, but confidence not
high enough at the moment for inclusion.

Highs near normal in the 70s on Tue with a gradual uptick increase
into late work-week. Lows a little above normal Tue night wed
morning, then well above normal through the extended timeframe.

Aviation
A pocket of higher moisture will keep the chance for MVFR, perhaps
even ifr, ceilings across our interior terminals (ism-mco-sfb-
lee) this morning. Expect ceilings to rise by mid morning with
generallyVFR CIGS this afternoon.

Shra chances will transition from the treasure coast terminals
this morning to inland sites this afternoon. Expect a chance of
showers to persist across the ism-mco-sfb-dab corridor well past
sunset tonight.

Marine
Today-tonight... The western atlantic high will retreat some over
the next 24 hours as a surface front moves across the gulf coast.

As a result, the local pressure gradient will tighten a bit as
winds veer to the south and southwest. Winds generally 10-15
knots into this afternoon will increase closer to 15 knots
overnight. Seas 2-3 feet nearshore and 3-4 feet offshore through
midday will become 3-4 feet everywhere into tonight, perhaps up to
5 feet over the offshore volusia waters.

Sun-wed... A cold front will move across the local coastal waters sun
night and settle across south fl. This same boundary will gradually
and slowly venture back northward into central fl Tue overnight
through Wed as a warm front. Isold-wdly sct shower chances on sun-
sun night with a small threat south of sebastian inlet on mon-mon
night, but mostly dry. Precip chances begin to increase tue-wed
night from the south with advancement north of the warm frontal
boundary. While not in the forecast just yet, isold lightning storms
cannot be ruled out tue-wed night as the pattern remains rather
unsettled with low confidence during this time.

Initial swrly flow will veer wrly late Sun into Sun evening ahead of
the front, then NW N overnight as it passes through. Winds continue
to veer to NE ene E through Mon night as high pressure tries to
build into the area. From the south, Tue night-wed, winds continue
to veer to ese SE S with the northward moving boundary. Wind speeds
aob 15 kts into late sun, but will gradually increase through the
night up to around 20 kts areawide by daybreak Mon morning as recent
models have come in a bit stronger with winds. The pgrad remains
tight into Mon with a slow diminishing trend Mon overnight into mid-
week.

Seas will be a bit slower to respond with 3-4 ft near shore and
perhaps up to 5 ft well offshore north of the CAPE early in the
period. As the winds increase seas will build to 3-5 ft near shore
and 4-6 ft offshore (north of sebastian inlet) by daybreak mon
morning. Seas may approach 7 ft over the gulf stream thru Mon night
before gradually subsiding into the extended from here.

Cautionary statements advisories may be necessary Sun night into at
least early tue.

Climate
Record highs and warm mins for the next few days.

Sat feb 23 Sun feb 24
hi-max hi-min hi-max hi-min
dab 87 2013 69 2013 88 2012 68 1962
mco 89 2013 69 2013 90 1962 68 1962
sfb 88 2013 70 2013 89 2012 70 1962
mlb 90 1961 72 2018 92 1962 72 2018
vrb 89 2008 73 1961 89 2012 71 2018
fpr 89 2932 71 1979 90 2012 70 1949

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 83 67 84 55 20 50 20 10
mco 86 69 89 62 20 30 20 10
mlb 85 68 86 64 20 20 20 20
vrb 84 66 88 66 20 10 20 20
lee 86 69 87 57 20 30 20 10
sfb 86 68 87 60 20 40 20 10
orl 86 70 87 61 20 40 20 10
fpr 84 66 87 66 20 10 20 20

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Ulrich sedlock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 24 mi32 min 68°F2 ft
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 25 mi38 min SSE 8 G 8.9 71°F 70°F1023.1 hPa
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 37 mi22 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 72°F 1022.7 hPa69°F
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 99 mi38 min E 5.1 G 8

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melbourne International Airport, FL5 mi39 minSSE 1010.00 miFair78°F72°F82%1021.8 hPa
Cocoa - Patrick Air Force Base, FL12 mi96 minS 89.00 miFair72°F72°F100%1022.1 hPa

Wind History from MLB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9E10E9SE10SE12E12E10E9E9E7SE8SE8SE9SE8SE9SE7SE6SE5SE5S3SE5S4SE6SE10
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Tide / Current Tables for Canova Beach, Florida
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Canova Beach
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Sat -- 04:33 AM EST     -0.64 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:51 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:35 AM EST     3.74 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:58 PM EST     -0.73 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:18 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:52 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:08 PM EST     3.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.12.110-0.5-0.6-00.9233.63.73.22.31.30.2-0.5-0.7-0.40.31.42.53.33.7

Tide / Current Tables for Patrick Air Force Base, Florida
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Patrick Air Force Base
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:21 AM EST     -0.61 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:51 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:24 AM EST     3.80 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:46 PM EST     -0.70 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:18 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:52 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:57 PM EST     3.72 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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31.90.8-0.1-0.6-0.50.21.22.33.23.73.73.12.21.10.1-0.5-0.7-0.30.61.72.73.53.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.