Sunday, November19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Cloud, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 5:31PM Sunday November 19, 2017 4:35 PM EST (21:35 UTC) Moonrise 7:40AMMoonset 6:42PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 325 Pm Est Sun Nov 19 2017
.small craft should exercise caution this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 pm through late Monday night...
Tonight..North winds increasing to near 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period 6 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Monday..East winds near 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with a dominant period 6 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Monday night..East winds near 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Chance of showers.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Showers likely.
Thursday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Chance of showers.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Chance of showers.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 325 Pm Est Sun Nov 19 2017
Synopsis..A fast moving cold front will push south of the local atlantic waters by this evening. Increasing north to northeast winds and building seas will spread south tonight through Monday then veer to east-northeast in the afternoon. Winds and seas will slowly decrease through mid week, then increase again by Friday.
Gulf stream hazards..North winds up to 20 knots with seas up to 7 feet will spread southward across the waters overnight. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Thursday november 16th. 45 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 35 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 29 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 20 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 13 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Cloud, FL
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location: 28.1, -81.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 192034
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
330 pm est Sun nov 19 2017

Discussion
Current through tonight... Frontal cloud band now covers the northern
2 3 of the CWA with its back edge already near the estimated frontal
position from mid morning (kx60-k28j-ksgj). The actual front and its
attendant winds shift is along along a lee-dab line. Kmlb shows only
sprinkles from around kissimmee-saint cloud to CAPE canaveral. The
front, its cloud band, and whatever light precip that can get
squeezed out of it will drop across the central and southern cwa
through late evening, and into south florida late tonight. With
temps reaching 85f to its south, a couple light rain showers might
be able to pop through late afternoon post-sunset, however QPF will
be minimal to nil where any rain manages to fall. Quick shot of cool
and dry air will spread down the peninsula overnight as skies clear
out. A steady north wind near 10 mph will make it feel quite cool
tonight. Actual mins will reach the u40s N W of i-4, l-m50s across
the central and interior south, and u50s-l60s along the treasure
coast and immediate barrier islands of south brevard.

Monday... Sunny skies early will keep way to diurnally enhanced
marine stratocumulus as moderate NE post-frontal winds veer quickly
to ene by afternoon. Maxes will reach the l-m70s north and m-u70s
under a breeze of about 15 mph.

Tuesday-Wednesday... Moisture increases from south to north through
the day Tuesday with low-level flow taking on a more southerly
component as high pressure continues to move away from the east
coast. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough is forecast to move across the
gulf coast states and eastern gulf of mexico. The increase in
moisture and the increase in lift caused by several perturbations in
the mid-level flow moving across the area will lead to numerous
showers areawide, with the highest chances closer to the i-4
corridor. Due to such cool temperatures aloft, a few thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out. Cloud cover will increase throughout the day
with mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions expected. Shower chances
continue through overnight Tuesday with most areas seeing pops at
near 50% with around 40% for okeechobee county and the treasure
coast.

Winds are forecast to veer northerly to northeasterly on Wednesday
ushering in some drier air compared to Tuesday. Both the GFS and
ecmwf show a deepening mid-level trough over the western gulf of
mexico with a few pieces of energy breaking away and moving across
the area. These should be sufficient enough to provide enough lift
to generate showers during the afternoon, but with the drier air in
place have capped pops at 30% with no thunder in the forecast at
this time.

Thursday-Friday... Models remain in agreement that a re-amplification
of the eastern CONUS trough will take place though there is still
considerable differences in its timing and amplitude, particularly
over the gulf of mexico. Several pieces of mid upper level energy
will shift down the rockies plains and help carve out the base of
the trough, with weak surface cyclogenesis expected to take place
along a stationary frontal boundary draped over or near the area.

Despite model differences in the evolution of the mid upper level
features, a general consensus of increasing moisture and low level
convergence at the surface are a good bet, so will continue to
advertise 50-60% pops Thursday and lower pops (20-30%) on Friday.

Ample cloud cover will keep maxes tempered with low to mid 70s
advertised.

Saturday-Sunday... Despite differences in the models late in the
workweek, both advertise dry northwest flow developing over the
weekend as yet another mid upper level trough gets carved out over
the eastern conus. A reinforcing (dry) front will keep temps near to
slightly below normal through Sunday.

Aviation Looks like the MVFR CIGS bkn018-025 behind the front
are breaking up as they're getting eroded by drier air. Frontal
cloud band ovc-bkn050-060 has reached kmlb and will spread south
through ksua through 00z, while the back edge approached klee-kdab
by that time. Skc will then spread southward across kism-kmco-ktix
central corridor through 02-03z, and then across the kmlb-ksua
se corridor from 04z-08z.VFR Monday with skies near few-sct040.

Marine
Tonight-Monday... Northerly wind shift to around 20kt will spread
south down the water overnight, veering to NE by Monday morning, and
then to ene by the afternoon, maintaining it strength for the most
part. Peak seas look to be right around 7ft, so confidence is pretty
high that this will be a lower threshold SCA event.

Advisories already in place, only need to add a cautionary statement
for near shore volusia, and as a lead-in to the advisories that
going into effect this evening tonight.

Tuesday-Wednesday..Winds and seas are forecast to diminish Tuesday
afternoon and evening, but high rain chances along with a few
thunderstorms will keep boating conditions less than favorable.

A chance of showers will stick around on Wednesday with northerly
winds of 10 kt with seas of 3-5 ft nearshore and 4-5 ft for the
offshore waters.

Thursday-Friday... Low pressure is forecast to develop over the
eastern gulf and shift over the peninsula late this week. Confidence
in the wind forecast remains lower than usual given the
uncertainties in the system's strength and track. Seas 3-5 feet
Thursday deteriorating on Friday.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 77 50 73 63 20 0 10 10
mco 80 52 75 60 20 10 10 10
mlb 81 57 76 69 20 20 10 10
vrb 81 61 76 69 10 20 10 10
lee 76 48 74 59 20 0 10 10
sfb 78 51 75 61 20 0 10 10
orl 79 53 74 62 20 10 10 10
fpr 81 62 76 69 10 20 10 20

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 4 am est Tuesday
for sebastian inlet to jupiter inlet 0-20 nm-sebastian
inlet to jupiter inlet 20-60 nm-volusia-brevard county line
to sebastian inlet 0-20 nm-volusia-brevard county line to
sebastian inlet 20-60 nm.

Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 4 am est Tuesday
for flagler beach to volusia-brevard county line 20-60 nm.

Short term... Cristaldi
long term... .Ulrich
aviation... Cristaldi


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SIPF1 44 mi36 min W 8 79°F 80°F1012 hPa (-1.0)
41118 48 mi66 min 73°F1 ft
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 62 mi36 min W 9.7 G 12 76°F 75°F1011.1 hPa (-0.8)67°F
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 65 mi60 min NW 5.1 G 7

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kissimmee Gateway Airport, FL17 mi40 minW 910.00 miOvercast74°F66°F76%1012.6 hPa
Orlando International Airport, FL23 mi43 minW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F64°F74%1011.7 hPa

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Last 24hrSE5W4W3CalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmS3S3SW5SW6SW9SW10W11W10W7W8W9
1 day agoE9E7E6NE5NE5NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmSE95SE9S6SE8SE6
2 days agoE10NE8NE9E8NE3CalmN3CalmCalmN3N4N4N5N6N5N5N7NE8NE73NE7NE5E3E6

Tide / Current Tables for Patrick Air Force Base, Florida
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Patrick Air Force Base
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Sun -- 01:39 AM EST     0.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:37 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:54 AM EST     4.50 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:07 PM EST     0.82 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:39 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:55 PM EST     4.13 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.40.30.81.62.63.64.34.54.23.52.71.81.10.811.62.43.33.94.13.93.22.4

Tide / Current Tables for Canova Beach, Florida
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Canova Beach
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Sun -- 01:49 AM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:37 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:04 AM EST     4.33 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:15 PM EST     0.76 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:39 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 08:09 PM EST     3.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.40.20.61.42.43.344.34.13.52.61.81.10.80.91.52.333.743.83.32.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.