Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 2:04 PM   Moonset 2:11 AM

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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 926 Pm Edt Fri May 17 2024
Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming south 5 to 10 knots late this evening, becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds and east 1 foot at 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early this evening, then a slight chance of showers late this evening. Saturday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds and east 1 foot at 9 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Saturday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds and east 1 foot at 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Sunday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Wave detail: west 2 feet at 3 seconds and northeast 1 foot at 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers with Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Sunday night - South winds around 10 knots, becoming west after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Wave detail: south 1 foot at 3 seconds and northeast 1 foot at 8 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Monday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon and evening, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: east 2 feet at 4 seconds and northeast 2 feet at 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers. Tuesday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers. Wednesday - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming south after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 952 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis - The atlantic ridge will continue to influence the state of florida through late week. Poor boating conditions are expected to develop Wednesday night into Thursday with increasing south to southwest winds. A frontal boundary is forecast to ease into central florida and the local atlantic waters Friday night and Saturday then become nearly stationary with scattered showers and lightning storms forecast to develop over the local waters.
Gulf stream hazards - South winds increasing 15 to 20 knots this evening.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 6th.
40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS62 KMLB 171911 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 311 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

New DISCUSSION, MARINE

DISCUSSION
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

...Near Record Temperatures Saturday with Heat Index Values in the 100-110 Degree Range...

Currently-Sunday... Current local radar imagery shows mostly dry conditions across east central Florida after an active morning and early afternoon with scattered showers and lightning storms which moved through areas mainly along and to the north of Lake Kissimmee to Melbourne. Currently, there are isolated showers over the offshore waters with partly to mostly cloudy skies and dry conditions elsewhere. However, guidance continues to show isolated showers and lighting storms developing into the late afternoon and evening hours along sea breeze boundaries late this afternoon and evening to the south of Orlando which will have the potential to produce gusty winds and cloud to ground lighting strikes. Skies are forecast to become mostly cloudy into the early morning hours leading up to daybreak with low stratus and patchy fog forecast.
Visibility will have the potential to drop to 1 mile or less at times, mainly between 4am and 9am over Lake, western Seminole, western Orange, and western Osceola counties.

A mid/upper level ridge will build over the state of Florida tomorrow with 500mb heights expected to reach 592dm over south- central Florida. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are forecast.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast to develop into tomorrow afternoon with the greatest chance (PoPs ~ 40%) along I-95. The primary hazards will be gusty winds and cloud to ground lighting strikes. Southwest winds are forecast to back onshore near the coast and slightly inland into the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze pushes inland and collides with the west coast sea breeze to the west of I-95. Wind gusts up to 20-25mph from the west- southwest are forecast well inland and from the southeast near the coast. Afternoon highs are forecast to reach the low to upper 90s with heat index values in the 100-110 range with the highest values to the south of Orlando.

Modified Previous Discussion

By Sunday, a surface cold front approaching the area looks to bring our best opportunity for widespread rainfall. 850mb winds increase in the afternoon to around 30-40 kt, building bulk 0-6km shear values to around 50-60 kt, especially from Cape Canaveral southward.
As a mid level trough sweeps across north-central Florida, model soundings suggest mid level lapse rates around 6.5 C/km and 500mb temps cool to -10C. It would not be all too surprising to see a few storms become strong to marginally severe on Sunday, but again, stay tuned as we work to fine tune the forecast in the next 24-48 hours.
One benefit to high chance/likely PoPs on Sunday will be cooler afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. Rain and storms will gradually wind down Sunday night into early Monday morning as the cold front pushes south of the area.

Monday-Thursday...An occluding low pressure system off the Carolina coast will drift seaward through mid week, as high pressure builds from north to south over Florida. Despite dialing Monday's PoPs back a bit for this package, they actually came in a bit higher than the previous forecast, despite models still showing relatively drier air. Low-end rain chances look to linger through Tuesday, especially near the immediate coast, then drier conditions from the middle to latter part of next week. With flow veering out of the north early this week, cooler (relatively speaking) daytime highs are forecast to approach near normal values for mid to late May, but then temperatures begin to climb again Thursday and Friday.

MARINE
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Currently-Saturday... Favorable boating conditions are forecast through Saturday as high pressure builds over the state of Florida.
Southeast winds at 8-14kts will veer offshore overnight. Winds will then back south-southeast into the afternoon Saturday at 10-15kts.
Seas are forecast to build to 1-2ft with up to 3ft offshore.
Scattered showers and isolated lighting storms are forecast into this evening which will have the potential to produce gusty winds and cloud to water lighting strikes. Scattered showers and lighting storms are forecast again Saturday afternoon with the potential to produce wind gusts up to 40mph and cloud to water lighting strikes.

Sunday-Tuesday (Modified Previous Discussion)...High rain and storm chances continue ahead of an approaching cold front. By Sunday, surface winds become SW 10-15 kt along and ahead of the front as it moves across the waters. The highest coverage of scattered showers and lightning storms is expected Sunday. Winds begin to turn out of the N Monday afternoon behind the front. Seas generally 1-2 ft Saturday, 2-3 ft Sunday, except where locally higher in the vicinity of lightning storms.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 646 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Fog which developed from TIX southward early this morning has mostly been MVFR VIS, occasionally falling to IFR. Fog is forecast to continue to lift over the next hour or so. Have kept mention of VCSH at DAB/LEE for a band of diminishing showers approaching the terminals later this morning. Not enough confidence to mention VCSH further southward. Tricky wind forecast today due to various boundaries traversing the area. Predominant winds are forecast out of the southwest, generally backing southward. East winds developing from MLB south with the development of the sea breeze. Winds can become variable at times through the day, generally remaining 10 kts or less.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 72 93 72 86 / 10 40 40 70 MCO 74 95 75 87 / 20 30 40 80 MLB 73 93 74 88 / 30 40 30 80 VRB 72 96 73 90 / 20 40 30 80 LEE 75 93 74 85 / 10 30 50 70 SFB 73 96 74 87 / 10 30 40 80 ORL 75 95 75 88 / 10 30 40 80 FPR 71 96 73 90 / 20 40 20 80

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.

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Canova Beach
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Fri -- 03:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:05 AM EDT     3.05 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:33 AM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:40 PM EDT     3.00 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:54 PM EDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Canova Beach, Florida, Tide feet

Patrick Air Force Base
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Fri -- 03:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:54 AM EDT     3.10 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:21 AM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:29 PM EDT     3.05 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:42 PM EDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Patrick Air Force Base, Florida, Tide feet

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