Saturday, June23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Key Vista, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 8:32PM Saturday June 23, 2018 11:00 PM EDT (03:00 UTC) Moonrise 3:38PMMoonset 2:29AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 858 Pm Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds around 5 knots then becoming south around 5 knots in the late evening and overnight. Bay and inland waters smooth. Isolated Thunderstorms early in the evening.
Sunday..East winds around 5 knots then becoming north late in the morning, then becoming northwest around 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms in the morning, then scattered Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..North winds around 10 knots then becoming east in the late evening and overnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms in the evening, then isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..South winds around 5 knots then becoming southwest late in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth. Isolated Thunderstorms in the morning, then scattered Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southwest winds around 5 knots then becoming southeast around 5 knots in the late evening and overnight. Bay and inland waters smooth. Scattered Thunderstorms in the evening, then scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday..East winds around 5 knots then becoming north early in the afternoon, then becoming west around 5 knots late in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth. Isolated Thunderstorms in the morning, then scattered Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..West winds around 5 knots then becoming southwest around 5 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters smooth. Scattered Thunderstorms in the evening, then scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..Northwest winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. Scattered Thunderstorms in the evening, then scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..Northwest winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. Scattered Thunderstorms.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 858 Pm Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
Synopsis..Light winds and seas to persist over the next several days as high pressure remains over the waters. Persistent west winds will become more southerly/easterly into early next week as the ridge shifts a bit northward. Spotty marine showers and storms will be the only concern, mainly in the evening and overnight through morning hours. These could locally enhance winds and seas.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Key Vista, FL
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location: 28.18, -82.78     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 240013
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
813 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018

Update
Westerly low level flow retreating northward as surface
ridge axis moves from the southern peninsula into central
fl overnight into Sunday. Tbw sounding showing weak flow
over the area this evening as well. Isolated thunderstorms
quickly waning while associated cloud cover to thin later
this evening leaving another warm and humid night. Latest
grids and forecasts on track no significant changes
expected.

Aviation
Afternoon convection ending with debris clouds into the
evening, butVFR conditions overnight with light and
winds. Then expect increased coverage of thunderstorms
Sunday afternoon.

Prev discussion issued 248 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018
short term (today and Sunday)...

a zonal flow pattern overspreads much of the lower 48 with
subtle shortwave troughs across the pacific northwest and
northeast. To the south, weak upper ridging continues to
hold over the gulf of mexico with the surface ridge axis
extending across south florida into the central gulf of
mexico. This feature will be the primary driver of our
weather over the next two days.

For the remainder of today, we continue to monitor
convective trends across the region. Similar to yesterday,
with the persistent westerly flow, it seems storms are
having a very hard time developing without a lifting
mechanism such as the seabreeze. This is the opposite across
the florida atlantic coast, where scattered thunderstorms
are already in progress. Still, based on several recent high
resolution model runs, it seems storms will eventually get
going mainly south of i-4 and east of i-75 where outflows
from west coast storms meet a weak seabreeze. This activity
will likely linger into the evening with gradual
dissipation.

On Sunday, the ridge axis will begin to lift northward,
resulting in winds across southern florida becoming more
southeasterly, and south southwest along the nature coast.

In this configuration, a more active pattern looks to become
established for showers and thunderstorms. Activity should
begin late morning to early afternoon and progress westward
toward the southwest florida coast late afternoon into the
evening, with greater rain chances along the i-75 corridor
than we have recently seen. Showers and storms will move
offshore in the evening hours.

Seasonably hot afternoon temperatures will persist with
highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. With generally onshore
flow, lows will remain quite warm in the mid 70s inland and
upper 70s along the coast.

Long term (Sunday night - Saturday)...

westerly low level flow of late will continue to
transistion to an east southeast flow during the first half
of the upcoming week as the surface ridge axis lifts
northward and sets up shop across the northern florida
peninsula through the period. With the ridge axis to the
north the east-southeast wind flow combined with ample
moisture (pw's in the 1.7 to 2 inch range) will favor the
highest pops and best sea breeze driven storm coverage along
and to the west of i-75 corridor from the tampa bay area
south into southwest fl during the afternoon and early
evening hours.

During Thursday a weakening frontal boundary will sink into
and stall out across the southeastern states. As it does so
the surface ridge axis will get nudged back south a bit to
lie across the central peninsula with a very weak steering
flow expected. This ridge position will favor more uniform
convective coverage each day through Saturday with the
highest pops and sea breeze driven storm coverage expected
along and to the west of the i-75 corridor from levy county
south to lee county each day during the afternoon and early
evening hours. With ample moisture in place and slow storm
motion some locally heavy rains with minor flooding of low
lying and poor drainage areas will be possible each day with
the storms. In addition, frequent lightning strikes and
strong gusty winds will accompany the storms. Temperatures
will run a few degrees above normal through the period with
overnight lows in the mid 70s inland areas, and upper 70s to
around 80 along the coast with daytime highs climbing to
around 90 along the coast, and lower to mid 90s inland each
afternoon.

Marine...

light winds and seas to persist over the next several days
as high pressure remains over the waters. Persistent west
winds will become more southerly easterly into early next
week as the ridge shifts a bit northward. Spotty marine
showers and storms will be the only concern, mainly in the
evening and overnight through morning hours. These could
locally enhance winds and seas. Otherwise, favorable boating
conditions are expected.

Fire weather...

abundant moisture and daily chances for rain will prevent
any fire danger concerns through the coming week.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 79 92 77 92 20 70 30 40
fmy 75 92 74 92 60 70 50 70
gif 75 94 75 94 50 60 40 50
srq 78 91 75 91 10 60 50 40
bkv 74 92 74 93 20 60 30 30
spg 80 90 78 91 10 60 30 40

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... Beach hazards statement until 10 pm edt this evening for
coastal sarasota.

Gulf waters... None.

Update aviation marine... 25 davis
upper air... 27 shiveley
decision support... 72 noah


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 2 mi66 min NW 5.1 G 6 85°F 1016.6 hPa
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 14 mi42 min W 6 G 7
ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL 18 mi126 min W 2.9 G 4.1 86°F 1015.9 hPa
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 25 mi60 min SSE 1 G 1.9
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 25 mi42 min WNW 6 G 7 85°F 89°F1016.2 hPa
MCYF1 26 mi42 min 91°F
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 30 mi48 min WNW 4.1 G 7 85°F 89°F1015.9 hPa
CLBF1 31 mi66 min NW 1.9 G 2.9 88°F 1015.1 hPa
MTBF1 37 mi42 min NW 7 G 8.9 85°F 1016.1 hPa74°F
PMAF1 39 mi42 min 85°F 89°F1016.1 hPa
42098 42 mi30 min 87°F2 ft

Wind History for Clearwater Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport, FL19 mi67 minW 510.00 miFair83°F75°F79%1015.8 hPa
Tampa, Tampa International Airport, FL20 mi67 minWNW 510.00 miOvercast85°F73°F70%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from PIE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6W4W5SW4W3SW3SW3S3SW6W9W7W9W7NW10NW9W116
G15
NW9NW11NW9NW8NW5W5W4
1 day agoW5CalmS4SW3W4SW5W4SW4W6W8NW6NW6NW8NW8NW8NW11
G16
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2 days agoNW3CalmW3SW4W5SW3SW3W5W6W9W6W8W10NW9NW9NW10NW8W7NW8NW9W7W6W4W4

Tide / Current Tables for Anclote, Anclote River, Florida
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Anclote
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:28 AM EDT     1.29 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:30 AM EDT     3.00 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:43 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:57 PM EDT     2.44 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.11.81.51.31.31.51.92.32.7332.82.41.91.30.80.50.40.611.522.32.4

Tide / Current Tables for New Port Richey, Pithlachascotee River, Florida
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New Port Richey
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:15 AM EDT     1.41 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:03 AM EDT     3.19 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:49 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:25 PM EDT     2.59 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.321.71.51.41.51.72.22.633.23.12.82.41.81.20.80.50.40.61.11.82.32.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.