Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Patrick Shores, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 5:30PM Friday November 16, 2018 2:48 PM EST (19:48 UTC) Moonrise 1:46PMMoonset 12:24AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 1030 Am Est Fri Nov 16 2018
.small craft should exercise caution...
This afternoon..North winds 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Saturday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Sunday night..East winds 5 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Monday night..North winds 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday..North winds 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 1030 Am Est Fri Nov 16 2018
Synopsis..Moderate to fresh northerly breezes will continue to produce poor to hazardous boating conditions today. Then as an area of high pressure tracks east along the gulf coast into the weekend, winds will veer onshore and weaken.
Gulf stream hazards..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 7 feet. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Thursday, november 15th. 43 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 22 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 13 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 11 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Patrick Shores, FL
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location: 28.21, -80.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 161937
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
237 pm est Fri nov 16 2018

Discussion
Colder than normal again tonight with gradual warming trend into
the weekend...

tonight-Saturday... High pressure centered across the northern gulf
coast expands northward and shifts toward the mid-atlantic coast.

This will veer low level winds onshore later tonight into Saturday
which will begin to modify the dry and cool airmass in place. Still,
a light drainage flow and favorable radiational cooling conditions
will lead to another colder than normal night. Lows will again fall
into the 40s over much of the area, with coastal locations south of
the CAPE potentially remaining at or just above the 50 degree mark.

Into Saturday, mostly sunny skies and relatively light onshore winds
will allow temps to warm into the low to mid 70s, potentially upper
70s along the treasure coast.

Sun-mon... An expansive area of high pressure extending from the deep
south to the ohio river valley will stretch east over the western
atlantic basin through Monday. Local onshore winds will allow
scattered to occasionally broken marine stratocumulus clouds to push
onshore just along the coast. There looks to be enough low-level
moisture for a few light showers to move onshore the volusia coast
Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, expect mostly dry conditions with party
cloudy skies. Morning lows will be in the low 60s in the orlando
metro and along the coast, with upper 50s across the interior.

Afternoon temps will climb to near 80 degrees areawide. As the high
pressure pushes away from the area, local winds will become
northerly by Monday afternoon with just a slight chance of showers
over the northernmost and southern waters. Temps will be near
seasonal: highs in the upper 70s north, and low 80s south; morning
lows in the low 60s along the coast orlando metro, and upper 50s
elsewhere.

Tue-fri... A mostly zonal upper-level pattern over the eastern conus
to start the holiday week will result in slight chance of showers
along the coast and over the waters as northeast winds will favor
development of marine showers. Temps will remain at or slightly
above seasonal values as highs climb into upper 70s low 80s, and
morning lows drop into the upper 50s low 60s.

There is high uncertainty with the extended forecast as GFS and
ecmwf continue to show potent shortwave trough (whose origins can be
traced back to an eastern pacific cutoff low) traversing the
subtropical jet stream across the southern great basin to the
southern plains on Wednesday, and into the northeastern gulf of
mexico by Thursday Friday. Resulting height falls begin to manifest
over the florida peninsula by late Thursday morning with surface low
pressure development hinted at over the central eastern gulf of
mexico. Models are not properly depicting rain chances across the
area if the low does manifest, pops are capped at 40-50 percent with
chance of rain and slight chance of thunderstorms from Thursday
night into Friday. It's still way too early to determine any
potential for severe storms, though upper-level dynamics,
instability, available moisture, and the southerly track of the
surface low are historically good indicators.

Aviation MainlyVFR. Bkn MVFR CIGS still possible at least
through the remainder of the afternoon from kvrb-ksua, but marine
stratocu deck should continue to decrease in coverage into tonight.

Marine
Tonight-Saturday... Northerly winds around 15 knots will continue
into late afternoon, and then will drop to 10-15 knots tonight into
Saturday as they veer onshore. Based on latest buoy obs, nwps
guidance has been coming in a little too high offshore, so will
limit seas to 6 feet over the gulf stream and allow the SCA to
expire with the afternoon package. Small craft will still need to
exercise caution, however, if venturing into these waters tonight.

Sun-mon... Boating conditions largely favorable with lightening
gradient winds ascd with broad high pressure north of the region.

East winds on Sunday will become north on Monday, remaining around 5
to 10 mph. Expect seas around 3 feet near the coast and up to 4 to 5
feet well offshore.

Tue-wed... No headlines are anticipated through mid week with seas
around 3 feet near the coast and up to 4 feet offshore. North winds
at 10 mph on Tuesday will become northeast at 10 to 15 mph on
Wednesday. Seas of 3 to 4 feet nearshore and 4 to 5 feet offshore
on Tuesday will decrease to 3 to 4 feet across the waters on
Wednesday.

Fire weather Low level flow veers onshore into the weekend which
will modify the dry and cool airmass in place. This will keep min rh
values above critical levels, but still may see rh values fall into
the 40s over the interior into the afternoon.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 46 73 58 77 0 0 10 20
mco 47 75 58 79 0 0 0 0
mlb 50 76 61 80 0 0 0 10
vrb 51 76 58 81 0 0 0 0
lee 44 73 56 78 0 0 10 0
sfb 47 75 57 79 0 0 10 10
orl 48 75 59 79 0 0 0 0
fpr 50 77 57 80 0 0 0 0

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... Small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for flagler
beach to volusia-brevard county line 20-60 nm-sebastian
inlet to jupiter inlet 0-20 nm-sebastian inlet to jupiter
inlet 20-60 nm-volusia-brevard county line to sebastian
inlet 20-60 nm.

Short term aviation... Weitlich
long term... .Rodriguez


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 14 mi49 min 78°F3 ft
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 14 mi31 min N 9.9 G 14 62°F 78°F1019.5 hPa
SIPF1 26 mi34 min N 17 63°F 64°F1019 hPa
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 31 mi29 min NNW 16 G 19 65°F 1018.1 hPa57°F
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 98 mi49 min NNW 4.1 G 6

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cocoa - Patrick Air Force Base, FL2 mi2.9 hrsNNW 910.00 miA Few Clouds63°F53°F70%1019.7 hPa
Melbourne International Airport, FL7 mi56 minN 1310.00 miFair66°F52°F61%1018.2 hPa
Cocoa Beach, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Skid Strip, FL18 mi2.9 hrsNNW 12 G 1810.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F52°F69%1019.6 hPa
Titusville, FL23 mi61 minNNE 127.00 miA Few Clouds64°F50°F60%1019 hPa

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Last 24hrNW12NW13NW15NW10NW10NW14NW9NW13NW14NW13NW13NW13NW12NW14NW12NW9NW11NW12NW13NW10NW11
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N10N9N10
1 day agoE7E8E9E9SE9SE7SE9SE8SE9SE10S8S9S11S8S9S8S7SW9NW19
G26
NW14NW6CalmW7W8
2 days ago--SE10SE10SE12--S8S8S4S3S3S5S4CalmW6N6N7N8N7NW6NW6NE7NE7E7E7

Tide / Current Tables for Patrick Air Force Base, Florida
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Patrick Air Force Base
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Fri -- 12:24 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:35 AM EST     3.49 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:51 AM EST     1.25 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:45 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:05 PM EST     3.75 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:33 PM EST     1.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.13.43.53.22.82.21.71.41.31.41.92.53.13.63.73.63.22.72.11.61.31.31.52.1

Tide / Current Tables for Canaveral Harbor Entrance, Florida
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Canaveral Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:24 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:33 AM EST     2.87 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:35 AM EST     0.82 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:45 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:55 PM EST     3.41 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:26 PM EST     0.62 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.82.82.72.31.91.30.90.81.11.52.12.83.33.43.32.92.41.610.70.70.91.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.