Sunrise 6:46 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 10:01 AM

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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 242 Pm Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Tonight - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north late this evening, then becoming southeast after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. Tuesday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. Wednesday - East winds around 5 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. Wednesday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. Thursday night - North winds around 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. Friday - East winds around 10 knots, becoming north in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. Friday night - North winds around 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. Saturday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 242 Pm Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Synopsis - Atlantic high pressure will keep warm and mostly dry conditions in place this week across the gulf waters, though some brief showers or an isolated storm will be possible near the coast mostly during the evening hours through mid week. Otherwise, the pressure gradient will weaken through tonight and allow wind speeds to decrease with winds then generally ranging from 5-10 kts through the remainder of the week and shifting onshore during the afternoon sea breeze.

FXUS62 KTBW 291834 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 234 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER

DISCUSSION
Issued at 233 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

High pressure in the Atlantic remains in control with its associated ridge axis north of the area. This has favored an east-southeast flow today and a sea breeze collision along/near the I-75 corridor, which may allow for some isolated shower activity to develop this evening mostly around southwest FL but thunder chances are still expected to be too low to include in forecast. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough will swing across the lower Mississippi Valley tonight and track towards the Southeast US on Tuesday and this feature will bring an uptick in moisture and some forcing for ascent into the area. This will allow for better precipitation chances tomorrow across portions of the area and overall higher precipitation coverage, but the main focus will be interior areas as a weaker pressure gradient tomorrow will allow the sea breeze to spread further inland so most coastal areas should be dry. Models are also showing that there should be better instability tomorrow so isolated to scattered storms will be possible in interior areas where the best low level convergence is expected to occur and with 500mb temperatures around -10C/-11C, some small hail can't be ruled out but the activity should generally remain sub-severe.

A lingering surface trough off the Southeast coast in the wake of the shortwave trough combined with the sea breeze should allow for another round of scattered showers and isolated storms on Wednesday with interior areas being favored once again as the sea breeze spreads inland. While rain chances will lower late week as upper ridging builds across the eastern US, there still could be some opportunity for showers and storms as weak troughing aloft lingers nearby and the sea breeze develops. By the weekend, conditions appear to be similar with low daily rain chances and highest coverage during the late afternoon and evening sea breeze as a mostly easterly flow sets up south of surface high pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast. Given the mostly easterly flow late week and through the weekend, temperatures remain above average in the upper 80s and low 90s into early next week.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Isolated showers may develop by this evening around southwest FL coastal terminals along the sea breeze and while this activity should be light if it develop, brief restrictions could occur if any heavier pockets of showers develop. As a result, VCSH has been added to southwest FL terminals from roughly 00Z-03Z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are in place throughout the TAF period with winds turning southerly tonight and eventually onshore into Tuesday afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 233 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Atlantic high pressure will keep warm and mostly dry conditions in place this week across the Gulf waters, though some brief showers or an isolated storm will be possible near the coast mostly during the evening hours through mid week. Otherwise, the pressure gradient will weaken through tonight and allow wind speeds to decrease with winds then generally ranging from 5-10 kts through the remainder of the week and shifting onshore during the afternoon sea breeze.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 233 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Warm and dry high pressure continues over the region with minimum RH values approaching or perhaps reaching critical levels at times, particularly in interior areas. While fire danger remains slightly elevated today due to higher wind speeds, wind speeds will generally decrease over the next several days as the pressure gradient relaxes across the area so no red flag conditions are expected at this time. In addition, there will be a slight increase in rain chances into mid week as a disturbance approaches the area with scattered showers and isolated storms possible mostly in interior areas before mostly drier weather returns again late week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 69 86 70 86 / 10 10 0 10 FMY 67 87 69 88 / 20 20 10 20 GIF 65 87 67 89 / 10 20 10 20 SRQ 67 85 68 86 / 10 10 0 10 BKV 62 87 62 88 / 10 10 0 20 SPG 72 84 73 85 / 10 10 0 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Hillsborough Bay
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Mon -- 12:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:37 AM EDT     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:24 PM EDT     3.03 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
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Hillsborough Bay, Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Titusville
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Mon -- 12:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:35 AM EDT     3.92 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:23 AM EDT     3.94 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:20 PM EDT     3.92 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:57 PM EDT     3.95 feet High Tide
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Titusville, Indian River, Florida, Tide feet

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