Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Patrick AFB, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 6:49PM Thursday October 19, 2017 5:46 PM EDT (21:46 UTC) Moonrise 6:09AMMoonset 6:06PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 400 Pm Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday afternoon...
Tonight..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Friday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Friday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 400 Pm Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
Synopsis..A trough along the florida east coast will weaken today. A strong high pressure ridge will remain centered north of florida into this weekend. Gusty northeast winds and seas will remain hazardous for small craft operators. A cold front will approach the area on Tuesday.
Gulf stream hazards..Northeast winds up to 20 knots with seas of 7 to 8 feet through late week. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Thursday october 19th. 44 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 31 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 26 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 16 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Patrick AFB, FL
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location: 28.25, -80.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 192013
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
405 pm edt Thu oct 19 2017

Discussion
First significant cold front of the fall season will push through
central florida by the middle of next week...

through tonight... Scattered small showers continue to move quickly
westward in fairly stout onshore flow this afternoon. Expect inland
activity to wane with the loss of diurnal enhancement, but continue
mainly over the coastal counties through the overnight, with a small
chance for a few of them to occasionally make the eastern reaches of
the interior. A pre-first period will address the ongoing activity
through sunset. Otherwise, partly cloudy with mins ranging from the
u60s-l70s over the interior to the m70s along the coast, with u70s
along the immediate barrier islands.

Friday-Friday night... Pattern looks very similar to start Friday,
with scattered showers moving onshore and inland. However, with the
model guidance showing drier air advecting wsw into the peninsula,
expect coverage of lessen as the afternoon progresses. Pops range
from 20 percent north inland to 40 percent along the treasure coast.

A very small threat for a shower or sprinkle may linger into the
overnight hours along the coast. Temps similar to today - maxes in
the l-m80s along the coast and u80s inland. Mins in the u60s-l70s
inland, m70s over the coastal counties, u70s on the barrier islands.

Saturday-Sunday... A considerably drier air mass will be in place
over east central florida on Saturday. Forecast soundings show a
very large subsidence inversion above 850 mb with any available
moisture being confined to the lower levels. This will greatly
reduce rain chances for much of the area. The GFS has shown very
good run to run continuity with these lower rain chances and the
latest ECMWF seems to have come on board with this scenario. Have
kept a slight chance pop for coastal areas from brevard northward
due to deep layer onshore flow with interior sections remaining dry.

Some enhanced moisture begins to filter into southern areas during
Saturday afternoon resulting in slightly high rain chances from vero
beach through southern osceola county southward (30-40%). Breezy
conditions can be expected during the afternoon as higher winds
aloft mix down to the surface.

On Sunday, the atmosphere will moisten back up as low-level high
pressure over the mid-atlantic states is forecast to be nudged
eastward by an approaching frontal boundary. In response, the local
winds will turn more southeasterly in the lower levels. The increase
in moisture over the area along with cooling temperatures aloft will
lead to showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms during the afternoon
and early evening. Highest pops favor northern areas at 50% (vero
beach northward) with 40% farther south.

Monday-Thursday... A potent short wave trough along the central gulf
coast will eject rapidly NE across the SE CONUS through Monday night,
dragging the first significant cold front of the fall season through
ecfl by Tuesday evening. Increasing moisture ahead of the front will
bring higher rain chances Monday and especially Tuesday, along with
the chance for thunderstorms with the fropa. Interestingly, the ecm,
which was 1bout 12-18 hours slower than the GFS at 00z, trended much
faster with both the mid level trough and surface front, and is now
actually a bit faster than the gfs, which actually slowed some. This
faster solution will bring the coolest air felt in east central
florida since late this past spring starting early Wednesday morning
and continuing into Thursday. After a warm Tuesday afternoon (l-m80s)
mins will fall back to the 60s Tuesday night, with maxes u70s north
to l80s south Wednesday with mins in the m50s to l60s for most of
the area. Slightly cooler on Thursday with maxes in the 70s and mins
in the 50s for all but the immediate coast.

Aviation
MainlyVFR conditions expected. Diurnal heating has allowed shra to
develop push well inland in breezy E NE flow but should diminish
with sunset. Isold-sct shra will continue to push onshore from the
atlc into tonight, mainly affecting coastal terminals with brief
MVFR CIGS vsbys possible. On fri, little change expected. E ne
gradient wind looks a tad stronger ESP across the treasure coast so
breezy conditions expected all areas. Sufficient moisture in the low
levels will support isold-sct shra pushing onshore and well inland.

Marine Friday through Sunday... Poor hazardous boating conditions
continue this weekend with seas generally 5-7 ft nearshore and 7-8
ft for the offshore waters. Winds will be around 15 kts for the
nearshore waters and closer to 20 kts offshore.

Monday-Tuesday... Winds will veer to se-s on Monday ahead of an
approaching strong cold front, which will reach the northern waters
on Tuesday afternoon, and push south of jupiter inlet sometime on
Tuesday evening, preceded by a band of showers and storms. Speeds
will run generally 13-18kt with seas 3-4 feet along the coast
and 5-6ft well offshore.

Hydrology The middle and upper saint johns river basin remains in
flood. River levels are expected to remain nearly steady or only
slightly decrease late this week and into the weekend, even with
some additional light rainfall in the forecast.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 72 83 71 84 30 20 20 20
mco 71 86 69 88 20 20 10 10
mlb 77 86 77 85 30 30 20 20
vrb 75 85 76 85 30 30 20 30
lee 68 87 69 88 10 20 10 10
sfb 70 86 69 87 20 20 10 10
orl 71 86 71 88 20 20 10 10
fpr 75 84 76 85 30 40 30 30

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Saturday for flagler beach
to volusia-brevard county line 0-20 nm.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt Saturday for volusia-brevard
county line to sebastian inlet 0-20 nm.

Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Sunday for flagler beach to
volusia-brevard county line 20-60 nm-sebastian inlet to
jupiter inlet 0-20 nm-sebastian inlet to jupiter inlet 20-
60 nm-volusia-brevard county line to sebastian inlet 20-60
nm.

Short long term... Cristaldi
mid term... .Combs
aviation radar... Kelly


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 11 mi56 min 81°F4 ft
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 11 mi47 min NNE 12 G 16 81°F 82°F1019.4 hPa (-0.4)
SIPF1 28 mi32 min NE 18 80°F 81°F1018 hPa
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 28 mi37 min NE 18 G 19 81°F 82°F1017.5 hPa72°F
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 99 mi53 min NNE 13 G 17

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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N14
G19
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N9
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NE8
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N14
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N12
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G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cocoa - Patrick Air Force Base, FL1 mi1.8 hrsNNE 1710.00 miFair82°F73°F74%1017.7 hPa
Melbourne International Airport, FL10 mi54 minNE 1610.00 miA Few Clouds83°F72°F70%1017.1 hPa
Cocoa Beach, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Skid Strip, FL15 mi1.8 hrsNE 1110.00 miFair84°F71°F66%1017.6 hPa
Titusville, FL21 mi55 minENE 187.00 miPartly Cloudy and Breezy82°F73°F74%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from COF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN14
G25
NE13NE14
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NE12NE14NE15NE14
G18
NE14NE14NE12NE13
G19
NE15NE11NE10NE14NE12NE12
G18
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1 day agoN10N14
G18
N8NE13N15
G23
N14N9N8NE15NE16NE18
G21
NE14NE10NE13NE11NE13NE11E13NE15
G21
NE19
G25
NE19
G24
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G25
N18
G23
2 days agoE5NE7NE7NE6E4NE4NE3E3CalmS4N17
G23
CalmW5N10NW10N9N10N7N5N10NE9N13N10N11

Tide / Current Tables for Patrick Air Force Base, Florida
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Patrick Air Force Base
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Thu -- 01:51 AM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:00 AM EDT     4.85 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:16 PM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:11 PM EDT     4.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.20.60.40.81.62.73.84.64.84.63.92.91.91.10.70.81.42.43.44.34.64.53.92.9

Tide / Current Tables for Canova Beach, Florida
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Canova Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:57 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:10 AM EDT     4.79 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:21 PM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:23 PM EDT     4.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.30.60.30.71.52.53.54.44.84.6431.91.10.70.81.42.33.244.54.53.93

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.