Monday, May21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Patrick AFB, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 8:11PM Monday May 21, 2018 10:12 PM EDT (02:12 UTC) Moonrise 11:43AMMoonset 12:25AM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 329 Pm Edt Mon May 21 2018
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Slight chance of showers.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 329 Pm Edt Mon May 21 2018
Synopsis..A high pressure ridge extending from bermuda into the carolinas will produce a moderate to fresh southeast breeze early this week, while deep tropical moisture will maintain high coverage of showers and Thunderstorms. Poor to hazardous marine conditions will diminish by mid week as the atlantic ridge axis settles across central florida and weakens.
Gulf stream hazards..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots and choppy seas 5 to 6 feet. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 21st. 38 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 28 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 14 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 8 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Patrick AFB, FL
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 28.25, -80.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus62 kmlb 220156
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
955 pm edt Mon may 21 2018

Update
Widespread precip tapered off to isolated light rain showers a
little after sunset across just about all of the area. Local radars
show spotty showers continuing upstream over the atlantic, with much
higher coverage and intensity of precip over the keys straits and
offshore south florida. Local RAOB and drwp data show SE to sse flow
in the surface to 2km layer, which supports at least some onshore
component to marine shower motion, especially farther south along
the treasure coast. Some redevelopment is likely given the favorable
setup aloft, high pwat air mass in place, an approaching nocturnal
marine instability cycle. Have trimmed pops back to 20 north and
interior, trending up to 40 for the treasure coast. Min temps near
70 l70s once again.

Aviation Vfr most areas. MVFR to local ifr vsbys (possibly MVFR
cigs as well) near 2-3sm bkn025 in showers overnight, with the best
chance along the mlb-sua corridor.

Marine Se flow averaging about 15kt will continue overnight. Seas
3-4ft near shore and 5ft well offshore. Expect coverage of showers
(and an isolated storm or two) to increase later tonight especially
over the gulf stream.

Update aviation... Cristaldi
impact wx... Weitlich

Prev discussion issued 328 pm edt Mon may 21 2018

Heavy rain possible again Tuesday, especially near the coast...

Tuesday... Axis of atlantic surface ridge will extend into north
florida. This will maintain a moist, breezy southeast flow in the
lower levels. The upper level trough in the eastern gulf of mexico
will weaken, but broadly diffluent flow aloft is still shown across
the area. Little change in the extensive cloud cover is expected
with these conditions remaining in place, so high temps are forecast
in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Mos guidance continues to have high rain chances (60-80%), along
the space treasure coasts tonight, then areawide on tue. This
very moist pattern is not likely to come to a halt as fast as the
nam based guidance suggests, so have bumped up pops to likely.

Locally heavy rainfall will continue to occur especially along the
coast where the flood threat has been increasing.

Wednesday... The axis of the atlantic surface ridge is forecast to
settle a little closer to the local area. Low level flow looks a
little more southerly and slightly weaker. Therefore, early morning
atlantic showers should not be pinned at the coast as much as recent
mornings, and with precipitable water forecast to start off a
little lower, convection may become more due to daytime heating.

Mos guidance supports this, showing high temps in the mid 80s at
the coast to around 90 inland. Expect showers storms to be more
scattered as influence of the upper level trough wanes, so will
have 40-50% rain chances for now.

Previous discussion...

thu-sun... The ridge axis does gradually sink south and east while
weakening slightly during the period. Unfortunately the deep plume
of moisture continues across the area into the weekend. Medium range
models show weak surface low development over the southern gulf by
thu with both gfs ECMWF lifting this feature toward the louisiana
coast by sat. The ECMWF remains a bit deeper with this low pressure.

Aloft, troughing will deepen and take up residency across the deep
south to include much of the gomex. This will strengthen the S swrly
steering flow into the holiday weekend as well as send occasional
shortwave impulses over the region. This will signal increasing rain
chances with a threat for heavy rainfall and localized flooding over
already saturated ground. It will remain humid with MAX temps in the
l-m80s with min temps continuing in the u60s to l70s.

Aviation Moderate to heavy showers will continue to occur this
afternoon in volusia county and along the treasure coast. These
heavy downpours are resulting in ifr visibilities of 1-2 sm at
kdab, and MVFR CIGS of bkn-020-030 at kdab and kmlb-ksua. Included
tempo groups in the tafs to account for ongoing rain through
21 21z at all coastal terminals. It is possible that this heavy
rainfall extends beyond the current tempo groups, so amendments
may be needed later this afternoon if the rain persists. The
inland terminals have dodged most of the heavy rainfall so far
today with some light rain and occasional MVFR cigs, but otherwise
vfr conditions. As showers move inland this afternoon some
terminals may see periodic MVFR ifr conditions with any moderate
to heavy shower activity. High resolution models, hrrr and local
wrf, indicate most of the showers will end after 21 24z withVFR
conditions prevailing through the overnight. If the last couple of
days are any indication there may be shower development early in
the morning after 22 06z, as a result I have continued vcsh at all
coastal terminals through the overnight. However, there is too
much uncertainty to include shra in the tafs at this time. Due to
the abundance of moisture and high chances of rain for Tuesday,
have included vcsh prevailing at all terminals after 22 14z.

Marine
Tonight-Tuesday... The pressure gradient still looks tightened enough
to maintain 15 knot southeast flow, and possibly up to 20 knots
offshore at times. This will continue to produce poor boating
conditions with seas 3-5 feet and up to 6 feet offshore. The
weather conditions also look poor as scattered to numerous showers
and isolated storms are indicated late tonight in the southern
waters, then spreading northward through tue.

Wednesday-Thursday... The atlantic ridge is still forecast to settle
close to the waters Wed while weakening. This will diminish
south southeast winds and allow seas to subside to 3-4 feet.

Moisture will remain high enough for at least scattered showers and
isolated storms.

Friday-Saturday... The forecast for the start of the memorial day
weekend is still uncertain as the models don't agree on the
evolution of low pressure forecast to develop over the
central eastern gulf of mexico. The atlantic ridge looks like it
is going to become well established again with an axis to our
north. This will provide a moist southeast wind flow, and while
the speed forecast is uncertain, at least some increase towards
15-20 knots would be expected.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 71 80 70 84 40 60 40 40
mco 70 82 70 88 30 70 30 50
mlb 73 80 73 84 50 70 40 50
vrb 73 81 72 85 60 70 40 50
lee 71 83 70 88 30 70 30 50
sfb 70 81 70 87 40 70 40 50
orl 70 81 70 87 30 70 30 50
fpr 72 81 72 84 60 70 40 50

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 11 mi49 min 78°F3 ft
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 11 mi42 min E 6 G 9.9 76°F 79°F1020 hPa
41118 25 mi42 min 77°F3 ft
SIPF1 28 mi42 min SE 11 77°F 78°F1019 hPa
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 28 mi32 min ESE 14 G 16 78°F 77°F1018.9 hPa73°F
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 99 mi66 min N 4.1 G 6

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
Last
24hr
E7
G10
E7
G12
E10
G14
E14
G19
E10
G13
E7
G11
E9
G15
SE5
G11
SE7
G11
E8
G12
SE6
G11
SE7
G10
SE4
G7
SE6
G11
SE8
G11
SE8
G13
SE8
G12
SE7
G10
SE7
G12
E9
G12
SE7
G11
SE9
SE6
G9
SE5
G8
1 day
ago
SW2
SE4
SE3
E3
NE4
NE6
NE9
G12
NE6
E6
G9
E6
G10
SE8
G13
SE8
G13
SE10
G15
SE9
G14
SE8
G13
SE8
G15
SE6
G11
E6
G12
E8
G11
E7
G10
E6
G10
E6
G11
E6
G10
E7
G11
2 days
ago
SE8
SE6
G9
SE6
SE9
G14
SE7
G11
SE9
G14
SE9
G12
SE11
G14
SE10
G14
SE13
G17
S9
G12
S9
SE7
S9
G23
SE9
G12
SE10
G13
S11
G14
SE9
G14
S8
G11
S7
SW4
W3
S4
SW4

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melbourne International Airport, FL10 mi19 minESE 810.00 miA Few Clouds78°F72°F82%1018.4 hPa
Titusville, FL21 mi85 minSSE 57.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F73°F94%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from COF (wind in knots)
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
Last 24hrSE13SE11SE12SE11SE10SE12SE13SE13SE15SE20SE11SE12SE13SE13SE12SE11SW5CalmSE9SE11SE10SE11SE14SE11
1 day agoS5SW3CalmS3CalmCalmS4S3E5E6E9E11E9E9SE14SE14SE11SE14SE15SE16SE13SE13SE13SE13
2 days agoSE11SE9SE11SE14SE10SE11SE10S8S12SE10SE14S11SE9S7S8S6S7SE8S8S13S14S8S15S7

Tide / Current Tables for Patrick Air Force Base, Florida
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Patrick Air Force Base
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:06 AM EDT     3.83 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:30 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:30 PM EDT     3.51 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:54 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:50 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.53.83.63.12.31.40.60.20.20.71.42.333.53.53.12.41.50.70.200.30.91.8

Tide / Current Tables for Canova Beach, Florida
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Canova Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:21 AM EDT     3.82 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:42 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:44 PM EDT     3.54 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:07 PM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:50 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.33.83.73.22.41.40.70.20.10.51.22.12.83.43.53.22.51.60.80.2-0.10.10.71.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (22,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.