Friday, April28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Patrick AFB, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 7:57PM Friday April 28, 2017 4:28 AM EDT (08:28 UTC) Moonrise 7:44AMMoonset 9:32PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 400 Am Edt Fri Apr 28 2017
Today..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Sunday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Monday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Monday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out 60 Nm- 400 Am Edt Fri Apr 28 2017
Synopsis..The atlantic high pressure ridge axis will remain north of florida into early next week. A gentle to moderate southeast breeze today will become moderate to fresh this weekend into Monday, with seas gradually building through the period.
Gulf stream hazards.none. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Thursday april 27th. 42 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 27 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 24 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 9 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Patrick AFB, FL
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location: 28.25, -80.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 280747
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
350 am edt Fri apr 28 2017

Discussion
Another hot day on tap as the fire danger remains high...

today-tonight...

axis of the atlantic surface high pressure ridge will elongate e-w
with its axis remaining roughly along the latitude of ga/sc. A mid
level ridge will build from florida NE into the western atlantic
with 24-hour h50 height rises on the order of 60-80m. This will lead
to a hot, humid, convectively suppressed day with MAX temps reaching
the u80s along the immediate coast, l90s from about i-95 to a little
west of the sjr, and mid 90s across most of the interior. Much like
yesterday, maximum hi values in the u90s will be common away from
the coast, and may nudge triple digits in a few spots. Warm and
humid again tonight with a sultry SE flow keeping mins in the l70s
inland, and m70s along the coast.

Saturday-Sunday... H100-h70 high pres ridge centered near bermuda and
extending wsw into the gomex will be the primary wx feature for
central fl thru the upcoming weekend. Position of the ridge will
generate a brisk SE flow thru 10kft while maintaining a stout low to
mid lvl subsidence inversion that will keep the local airmass well
capped.

The onshore flow will promote the formation of a diffuse east coast
sea breeze as well as rapid inland penetration... Collision with the
west coast sea breeze most likely will occur over west of the cwa.

Fcst pwat values btwn 1.00"-1.25", though much of this will be in
the form of upr lvl cirrus as the SRN branch of the h30-h20 jet
pushes a 60-80kt streak acrs the fl peninsula. While the strength
and depth of the SE flow may generate a few low-topped nocturnal
showers along the treasure coast thru the weekend, impact would be
negligible with QPF well blo 0.10". Will keep pops in the silent
10pct range.

Temps will remain above avg as the southerly wind component
maintains a warm air advection pattern: aftn maxes in the m/u80s
along the coast and u80s/l90s inland. Overnight mins generally in
the l/m70s, though a few interior spots may dip into the u60s.

Monday-Thursday... Highly amplified jet pattern over the central
pacific will push a strong h30-h20 jet core from the pac NW into the
desert sw, where if will feed a dvlpg storm system over the tx
plains. Both gfs/ecmwf models indicate a deep and well organized low
pressure system over the upr midwest by daybreak Mon that will lift
acrs the great lakes on tue, then into ERN canada on wed. The result
will be a broad troughing pattern the eastern half of the CONUS that
will erode the WRN flank of the atlc ridge and shunt its center east
of bermuda, allowing the opportunity for the system to crank a
frontal boundary into central fl on Mon night into tue. Front is
fcst to stall Tue night into Wed over the treasure coast/lake-o
region as the parent low lifts into ERN canada and begins to weaken.

Moisture band associated with the trof will reach central fl Monday
night into tue. Increasing moisture and warm srly flow may generate
isold tsras over the interior as local mesoscale lake/sea breeze
boundaries interact. Front will washout over central fl on Tue as
the atlc ridge tries to rebuild acrs the fl peninsula. However,
global models indicate a secondary mid lvl short wave pushing acrs
the central plains and into the deep south by the end of the fcst
pd... A reflection of the strong and active jet pattern over the
central pacific. GFS is a bit more aggressive than ECMWF wrt its
more organized sfc low and more amplified mid lvl trof, but either
pattern would allow a new frontal boundary and its associated
moisture band to work its way into central fl. Extended numerical
guidance agrees that moisture will be sufficient to support
isold/sct pops thru midweek.

Aviation Vfr. Skc with LCL sct030 13-15z, lifting to few-sct060
inland by afternoon.

Marine
Today-tonight... Se-sse winds 10-13kt, increasing to about 15kt and
backing slightly to se. Seas 3-4ft.

Saturday-Monday... Deep high pres ridge over the W atlc extending
into the gomex/deep south will dominate the LCL wx pattern,
generating a moderate to fresh SE breeze acrs the area into early
next week. Seas 3-5ft sat, building to 4-6ft on sun, then 5-7ft on
mon. The persistent SE flow will place the waters south of sebastian
inlet in the shadow of the NRN bahamas, resulting in rough, short pd
chop. Isold shras on mon, chc of tsras late Mon night as a frontal
boundary approaches the area.

Tuesday... Weak frontal boundary will push into central fl and
washout. Winds diminishing and briefly veering to s/sw before
shifting back to the s/se by late aftn. Seas 3-5ft nearshore and 4-
6ft offshore at daybreak, subsiding to 2-3ft nearshore and 3-4ft
offshore by sunset.

Fire weather Afternoon rh values will reach the mid-upper 30s
west of the sjr this afternoon, with a few hours in the l30s likely
across lake county. County-averaged erc values are generally between
30-40, while the k-b drought index map shows just about all of the
cwa AOA 500, and most of that between 600-700. Only two areas below
this range - north lake/volusia (which had a rain event on 4/4), and
coastal saint lucie/martin (locally very heavy rain fell there 4/23).

The fire danger will remain in the "high" to "very high" range today
even though critical rh values (35 pct)/durations (4-hours), and
average erc values (37) in some counties, fall a few clicks short of
rfw criteria.

This weekend... Deep SE flow should push sufficient atlc humidity
across east central fl to keep min rh values abv critical levels.

Even so, the local fire danger will remain high as a fresh transport
breeze and aftn temps in the l90s generate very good to excellent
dispersion and dry ground conditions keep getting drier in the hot,
dry and breezy conditions, and the Sun angle climbs inexorably
higher as we get into may.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Dab 90 74 87 72 / 10 10 10 10
mco 95 72 91 71 / 10 10 10 10
mlb 88 76 87 72 / 10 10 0 10
vrb 87 75 86 73 / 10 10 0 10
lee 94 73 92 72 / 10 10 10 10
sfb 94 73 90 71 / 10 10 0 10
orl 95 73 91 72 / 10 10 10 10
fpr 88 74 85 74 / 10 10 0 10

Mlb watches/warnings/advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Short term/aviation... Cristaldi
long term/impact wx... Bragaw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 11 mi41 min SSE 8 G 9.9 77°F 79°F1016.5 hPa
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 11 mi38 min 77°F3 ft
SIPF1 28 mi29 min S 7 77°F 1016 hPa (+0.0)
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 28 mi29 min S 12 G 14 77°F 76°F1016.4 hPa (+0.4)76°F
41116 29 mi59 min 76°F3 ft
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 99 mi47 min ESE 1.9 G 4.1

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cocoa - Patrick Air Force Base, FL1 mi31 minS 1010.00 miFair77°F73°F89%1015.3 hPa
Melbourne International Airport, FL10 mi36 minS 610.00 miA Few Clouds77°F73°F88%1015.2 hPa
Cocoa Beach, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Skid Strip, FL15 mi31 minS 1010.00 miA Few Clouds77°F74°F91%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from COF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S6--S7SW10S7SE10SE10SE13SE15SE16SE16SE16SE15SE16SE15SE14SE14S14S15S7S6S9S10
1 day agoW6W5W4W5SW5CalmW9SW10SW11SW10
G18
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2 days agoW11W12W12W10W10NW7W5W9W10W7SW10E12E9SE13SE10SE11S8S5W9SW7W6W8W6W5

Tide / Current Tables for Patrick Air Force Base, Florida
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Patrick Air Force Base
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Fri -- 03:43 AM EDT     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:38 AM EDT     4.25 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:01 PM EDT     -0.79 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:17 PM EDT     4.50 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:31 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.81.60.5-0.2-0.30.21.12.33.44.14.23.72.71.50.4-0.5-0.8-0.50.41.7344.54.4

Tide / Current Tables for Canova Beach, Florida
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Canova Beach
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:53 AM EDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:44 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:58 AM EDT     4.14 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:13 PM EDT     -0.95 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:31 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:36 PM EDT     4.42 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
31.80.6-0.1-0.40.112.13.13.84.13.82.91.70.4-0.5-0.9-0.70.11.32.53.64.34.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.