Sunrise 6:36 AM   Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 4:51 PM   Moonset 3:39 AM

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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 1006 Am Edt Mon May 20 2024
This afternoon - Northwest winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. Tonight - Northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming northeast by late evening. Bay and inland waters light chop. Tuesday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest around 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Tuesday night - North winds around 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Wednesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. Wednesday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. Thursday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 1006 Am Edt Mon May 20 2024
Synopsis - Persistent long period swells from the southern gulf are likely to keep seas elevated today. A weak frontal boundary will continue to slowly move across the eastern gulf waters with a few showers or storms possible across the waters. Weak high pressure gradually builds into the region by midweek with winds and seas slowly subsiding.

FXUS62 KTBW 201253 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 853 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 853 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

What's left of the cool front was drifting south into central Florida early this morning with some cumulus clouds along and ahead of it. Low stratus has moved southwest into the northern Nature Coast behind the boundary, but this should lift and dissipate in the next few hours. For the rest of the day west to northwest low level flow will increase across most of the region, with the exception being across the northern Nature Coast where a more north to northeast flow will persist. There could be enough moisture for a few showers this afternoon along this wind shift across the Nature Coast, and further south over the interior, otherwise mostly sunny skies are anticipated. Overall forecast looks on track with no updates needed.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 853 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR expected through period with increasing west to northwest winds up to 10 to 15 knots with some higher gusts this afternoon.
Winds shift to northeast during this evening and then diminish overnight.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 325 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Although much of the area remained rain free on Sunday, limited rain chances are expected to continue today and Tuesday with lingering moisture likely to produce a few showers and storms during the afternoon and evening primarily over the interior as a weak surface boundary remains draped across the peninsula while a trough aloft extends SW across the state from the W Atlantic.

Guidance continues to indicate meager rain chances for W FL today with PoPs generally 20-30 percent. With the setup continuing to favor interior convection and PWATs trending down toward the 1-1.3 inch range across most of the area today through early Tuesday, lower PoPs seem likely with best chances along the interior. As the trough aloft begins to shift east into the Atlantic on Tuesday, surface ridging along the E Seaboard will begin gradually building into the state with low-level NE winds overspreading the area and advecting Atlantic moisture across the state leading to a slight uptick in PoPs Tuesday afternoon with highest chances still focused across the interior but spreading further across W FL.

By Wednesday upper ridging looks to build NE across the state from the SW Gulf while the surface ridge remains in place, leading to mainly dry conditions for the majority of the area as subsidence limits moisture depth and rain chances, mainly to 20 percent or less for southern interior and SWFL locations. Shortwaves and attendant surface low pressure systems trekking across the OH/TN Valleys over the latter half of the week will weaken the ridging aloft while the surface ridge will shift E into the Atlantic in response, causing winds to shift to SE-S locally late week into the weekend with gradually increasing moisture and an increase in rain chances over the weekend into early next week.

Temps generally within a few degrees of average over the early part of the week before warming to above normal over the latter half of the week with the ridging over the area. Expect afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the immediate coast today and Monday with coastal areas in the lower to mid 80s, then warming into the lower to mid 90s mid week and beyond away from the coast with immediate coastal areas in the mid to upper 80s.

MARINE
Issued at 325 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

A weak surface boundary remains over the waters with W-NW winds today increasing along the immediate coast during the afternoon with sea breeze enhancement. High pressure then builds along the E Seaboard and over the waters Tuesday into late week favoring NE to E winds developing over the waters, turning onshore with the sea breeze during the afternoons followed by easterly surges late evening into overnight. The high shifts into the Atlantic late week into the weekend allowing winds to become more S-SE over the weekend into early next week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 325 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

A weak surface boundary remains draped across the state with winds generally NW-N today. High pressure builds into the state Tuesday into late week favoring NE-E winds before shifting into the W Atlantic into the weekend allowing winds to shift out of the SE-S. Expect winds near the coast to turn onshore during the afternoons with the sea breeze.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 90 73 91 75 / 10 10 20 0 FMY 91 72 92 73 / 20 20 30 10 GIF 91 70 90 71 / 30 10 40 0 SRQ 90 71 92 73 / 10 10 20 10 BKV 91 65 91 66 / 20 10 20 0 SPG 88 76 90 77 / 10 10 20 0

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Hwy. 19 bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:36 AM EDT     1.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:10 AM EDT     3.06 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:34 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hwy. 19 bridge, Pithlachascotee River, Florida, Tide feet

Hudson
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Mon -- 12:13 AM EDT     2.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:48 AM EDT     1.30 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:44 AM EDT     3.16 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:42 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hudson, Florida, Tide feet

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