Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cocoa West, FL
May 14, 2024 11:18 PM EDT (03:18 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:31 AM Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 11:22 AM Moonset 12:38 AM |
AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 1009 Pm Edt Tue May 14 2024
.small craft should exercise caution - .
Rest of tonight - South winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots late this evening and overnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: southeast 4 feet at 6 seconds and northeast 2 feet at 10 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms until early morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms early this morning.
Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 6 seconds and east 2 feet at 9 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: west 2 feet at 4 seconds and east 2 feet at 7 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 4 seconds and northwest 1 foot at 3 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west after midnight. Seas 1 foot. Wave detail: northwest 1 foot at 3 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Friday - South winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon and evening, becoming south after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds and east 1 foot at 8 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers.
Sunday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 952 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis - The atlantic ridge will continue to influence the state of florida through late week. Poor boating conditions are expected to develop Wednesday night into Thursday with increasing south to southwest winds. A frontal boundary is forecast to ease into central florida and the local atlantic waters Friday night and Saturday then become nearly stationary with scattered showers and lightning storms forecast to develop over the local waters.
Gulf stream hazards - South winds increasing 15 to 20 knots this evening.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 6th.
40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 6th.
40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
FXUS62 KMLB 150310 AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1110 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
New UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 1108 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Another active weather day today, with activity moving in from the Gulf earlier in the day with showers and storms developing along the east coast sea breeze into the afternoon and early evening.
Scattered storms are ongoing across the Atlantic this evening, mainly north of Sebastian Inlet. This activity is moving eastward around 15 mph. Any lingering activity will dissipate or move out of the local area over the next hour. The next frontal boundary is shifting eastward across the Gulf States, and will reach the Florida Panhandle tonight. This will bring an increase chance for showers and storms once again overnight and into the early hours on Wednesday, with activity reaching northern FL overnight, brining the threat for strong to isolated severe storms across our northern areas before sunrise. Highest rain and storm chances (PoP 30-60 percent) tonight will be from a Titusville to Lake Kissimmee northward just before sunrise. Main storm threats will be gusty winds of 40-50 mph with isolated up to 60 mph, hail up to 1 inch, and heavy downpours. A tornado can not be ruled out, especially along and north or the I-4 corridor. Temperatures will be warm and muggy tonight, with overnight lows in the low 70s under partly to mostly cloudy skies.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 1108 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Another round of showers and storm are expected later tonight and into Wednesday morning. Have VCSH starting 10Z for most TAF sites, however having it start at 8Z at LEE. VCTS starting at 13/14Z.
MVFR/IFR conditions in stronger storms possible. Have included TEMPOs for 3SM TSRA BKN030 from VRB northward with most sites starting at 14Z, however LEE starts at 13Z and VRB starts at 16Z.
Wind gusts of 35 KT or greater will affect some terminals.
Otherwise, VFR conditions expected. Gusty winds will develop Wednesday by mid morning, with southwest winds increasing to 10-15 KT with gusts up to 20-25 KT. Latest CAMs suggest convection will clear out starting across the north around 21Z and progressing southward to around 23Z. Winds will decrease once again after sunset, with southwest winds decreasing to 5-10 KT overnight.
PREVIOUS MARINE
Issued at 320 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Tonight/Wed...Will continue the marginal SCA across the offshore waters tonight for S/SE winds up to 20 knots and a Caution for the BRevard and Treasure coast nearshore waters. AN even earlier onset of storms is forecast Wednesday, many strong and some severe pushing offshore. Seas 3-4 FT, up to 5 FT offshore.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 320 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Current-Tonight...The strong storms across the north/central sections earlier have long pushed well offshore and the debris cloudiness has diminished allowing reheating. But do not see anything imminent that would spark additional convection through the evening there. While no severe weather was reported, there were a number of classic tree cleaners, storms containing 45-55 mph wind gusts. Isolated sea breeze storms will develop near the coast south of the Cape and around Lake Okeechobee through the early evening. Will need to watch these storms for isolated severe potential into early evening. The next convective cluster seen on hi-res sat over the northern Gulf will reach north FL overnight and could bring a strong/marginal severe threat to northern areas before sunrise.
Wed...Scattered lightning storms will redevelop during the morning ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Conditions will be favorable for another round of strong to severe storms that could begin even earlier than today. Convection should initiate along the differential heating boundary between the debris canopy and sfc heating and develop E/SE from there. Strong mid level flow and cold temps aloft look to produce a better chance for severe storms from mid morning through mid aftn. Large hail and damaging winds appear to be the primary threats with a few tornadoes possible.
Think a watch box (probably a Tornado watch) is more likely tomorrow than it was today for much of EC FL. Max temps should hold in the mid to upper 80s Orlando northward but reach the mid 90s across the south prior to onset of convection.
Thursday-Friday...Mid-level ridging is forecast to set up over the Florida peninsula late this week, with the lingering weak front remaining draped across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County area on Thursday. A plume of moisture will remain situated over this area, with isolated to scattered showers possible. Model guidance does not currently indicate large support for severe storm development, especially with decreasing offshore flow aloft and warming 500 mb temperatures, but some modest instability may be enough to kick off a few isolated strong storms across southern portions of the forecast area. North of the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee area, conditions are forecast to remain mostly dry as a dry air mass with PWATs less than an inch filters in, though a few stray showers still cannot be ruled out across Brevard and Osceola counties. Decided to further decrease PoPs with this forecast package based on model guidance and increasing confidence that the front will sit a bit further south than previously thought. Any showers and storms that do develop will move offshore across the local Atlantic waters and diminish into the overnight hours.
By Friday, the boundary is forecast to lift northward across east central Florida as a weak warm front. Guidance continues to indicate the potential for isolated showers and storms, due to the modest moisture return associated with the front. As a result, kept PoPs around 20 percent for now across east central Florida, but would not be surprised if this continues to trend lower, especially if the Euro trends more towards the GFS (the drier solution). Any activity that develops is expected to diminish during the evening and overnight hours.
Afternoon temperatures will continue to be 5 to 10 degrees above normal across east central Florida through the end of the work week, with highs climbing into the 90s both Thursday and Friday afternoon.
Heat indices in some areas may reach to right around 100. Overnight temperatures will remain in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Saturday-Tuesday...Moisture is forecast to continue increasing across the peninsula this weekend as the mid-level ridge shifts eastward out over the Atlantic. Troughing aloft accompanied by a surface low and its attendant cold front will move towards the Florida peninsula on Sunday, with the front expected to move south of the forecast area late Sunday into Monday. The GFS continues to indicate a cleaner frontal passage compared to the Euro. Model discrepancies continue into Tuesday, with the Euro indicating drier conditions than the GFS. In general, stuck with the NBM as a good middle ground between the models, with PoPs in the 30 to 50 percent range this weekend into early next week. Isolated storms will also be possible. The heat will persist across the peninsula, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Saturday could be particularly toasty, with some areas south of the Orlando metro climbing into the upper 90s and heat indices reaching the 100 to 105 range. Overnight lows will remain in the upper 60s to low 70s.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 71 87 69 91 / 50 70 10 0 MCO 74 87 71 92 / 40 70 20 10 MLB 72 90 72 90 / 20 70 30 20 VRB 72 94 72 93 / 20 70 40 20 LEE 74 85 72 90 / 60 70 20 0 SFB 74 87 72 92 / 50 70 20 10 ORL 74 87 73 92 / 40 70 20 10 FPR 72 94 71 93 / 20 60 40 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ570-572-575.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1110 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
New UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 1108 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Another active weather day today, with activity moving in from the Gulf earlier in the day with showers and storms developing along the east coast sea breeze into the afternoon and early evening.
Scattered storms are ongoing across the Atlantic this evening, mainly north of Sebastian Inlet. This activity is moving eastward around 15 mph. Any lingering activity will dissipate or move out of the local area over the next hour. The next frontal boundary is shifting eastward across the Gulf States, and will reach the Florida Panhandle tonight. This will bring an increase chance for showers and storms once again overnight and into the early hours on Wednesday, with activity reaching northern FL overnight, brining the threat for strong to isolated severe storms across our northern areas before sunrise. Highest rain and storm chances (PoP 30-60 percent) tonight will be from a Titusville to Lake Kissimmee northward just before sunrise. Main storm threats will be gusty winds of 40-50 mph with isolated up to 60 mph, hail up to 1 inch, and heavy downpours. A tornado can not be ruled out, especially along and north or the I-4 corridor. Temperatures will be warm and muggy tonight, with overnight lows in the low 70s under partly to mostly cloudy skies.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 1108 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Another round of showers and storm are expected later tonight and into Wednesday morning. Have VCSH starting 10Z for most TAF sites, however having it start at 8Z at LEE. VCTS starting at 13/14Z.
MVFR/IFR conditions in stronger storms possible. Have included TEMPOs for 3SM TSRA BKN030 from VRB northward with most sites starting at 14Z, however LEE starts at 13Z and VRB starts at 16Z.
Wind gusts of 35 KT or greater will affect some terminals.
Otherwise, VFR conditions expected. Gusty winds will develop Wednesday by mid morning, with southwest winds increasing to 10-15 KT with gusts up to 20-25 KT. Latest CAMs suggest convection will clear out starting across the north around 21Z and progressing southward to around 23Z. Winds will decrease once again after sunset, with southwest winds decreasing to 5-10 KT overnight.
PREVIOUS MARINE
Issued at 320 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Tonight/Wed...Will continue the marginal SCA across the offshore waters tonight for S/SE winds up to 20 knots and a Caution for the BRevard and Treasure coast nearshore waters. AN even earlier onset of storms is forecast Wednesday, many strong and some severe pushing offshore. Seas 3-4 FT, up to 5 FT offshore.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 320 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Current-Tonight...The strong storms across the north/central sections earlier have long pushed well offshore and the debris cloudiness has diminished allowing reheating. But do not see anything imminent that would spark additional convection through the evening there. While no severe weather was reported, there were a number of classic tree cleaners, storms containing 45-55 mph wind gusts. Isolated sea breeze storms will develop near the coast south of the Cape and around Lake Okeechobee through the early evening. Will need to watch these storms for isolated severe potential into early evening. The next convective cluster seen on hi-res sat over the northern Gulf will reach north FL overnight and could bring a strong/marginal severe threat to northern areas before sunrise.
Wed...Scattered lightning storms will redevelop during the morning ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Conditions will be favorable for another round of strong to severe storms that could begin even earlier than today. Convection should initiate along the differential heating boundary between the debris canopy and sfc heating and develop E/SE from there. Strong mid level flow and cold temps aloft look to produce a better chance for severe storms from mid morning through mid aftn. Large hail and damaging winds appear to be the primary threats with a few tornadoes possible.
Think a watch box (probably a Tornado watch) is more likely tomorrow than it was today for much of EC FL. Max temps should hold in the mid to upper 80s Orlando northward but reach the mid 90s across the south prior to onset of convection.
Thursday-Friday...Mid-level ridging is forecast to set up over the Florida peninsula late this week, with the lingering weak front remaining draped across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County area on Thursday. A plume of moisture will remain situated over this area, with isolated to scattered showers possible. Model guidance does not currently indicate large support for severe storm development, especially with decreasing offshore flow aloft and warming 500 mb temperatures, but some modest instability may be enough to kick off a few isolated strong storms across southern portions of the forecast area. North of the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee area, conditions are forecast to remain mostly dry as a dry air mass with PWATs less than an inch filters in, though a few stray showers still cannot be ruled out across Brevard and Osceola counties. Decided to further decrease PoPs with this forecast package based on model guidance and increasing confidence that the front will sit a bit further south than previously thought. Any showers and storms that do develop will move offshore across the local Atlantic waters and diminish into the overnight hours.
By Friday, the boundary is forecast to lift northward across east central Florida as a weak warm front. Guidance continues to indicate the potential for isolated showers and storms, due to the modest moisture return associated with the front. As a result, kept PoPs around 20 percent for now across east central Florida, but would not be surprised if this continues to trend lower, especially if the Euro trends more towards the GFS (the drier solution). Any activity that develops is expected to diminish during the evening and overnight hours.
Afternoon temperatures will continue to be 5 to 10 degrees above normal across east central Florida through the end of the work week, with highs climbing into the 90s both Thursday and Friday afternoon.
Heat indices in some areas may reach to right around 100. Overnight temperatures will remain in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Saturday-Tuesday...Moisture is forecast to continue increasing across the peninsula this weekend as the mid-level ridge shifts eastward out over the Atlantic. Troughing aloft accompanied by a surface low and its attendant cold front will move towards the Florida peninsula on Sunday, with the front expected to move south of the forecast area late Sunday into Monday. The GFS continues to indicate a cleaner frontal passage compared to the Euro. Model discrepancies continue into Tuesday, with the Euro indicating drier conditions than the GFS. In general, stuck with the NBM as a good middle ground between the models, with PoPs in the 30 to 50 percent range this weekend into early next week. Isolated storms will also be possible. The heat will persist across the peninsula, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Saturday could be particularly toasty, with some areas south of the Orlando metro climbing into the upper 90s and heat indices reaching the 100 to 105 range. Overnight lows will remain in the upper 60s to low 70s.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 71 87 69 91 / 50 70 10 0 MCO 74 87 71 92 / 40 70 20 10 MLB 72 90 72 90 / 20 70 30 20 VRB 72 94 72 93 / 20 70 40 20 LEE 74 85 72 90 / 60 70 20 0 SFB 74 87 72 92 / 50 70 20 10 ORL 74 87 73 92 / 40 70 20 10 FPR 72 94 71 93 / 20 60 40 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ570-572-575.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL | 8 mi | 49 min | SSE 9.9G | 78°F | 84°F | 29.87 | ||
| 41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) | 11 mi | 53 min | 78°F | 4 ft | ||||
| 41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL | 31 mi | 39 min | S 19G | 78°F | 76°F | 29.90 | 71°F | |
| SIPF1 | 38 mi | 34 min | 12 | 82°F | 82°F | 29.85 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KCOF PATRICK AFB,FL | 10 sm | 23 min | SSE 12 | 10 sm | Clear | 79°F | 73°F | 84% | 29.85 | |
| KTIX SPACE COAST RGNL,FL | 11 sm | 2.5 hrs | calm | 7 sm | Partly Cloudy | 84°F | 77°F | 79% | 29.88 | |
| KXMR CAPE CANAVERAL AFS SKID STRIP,FL | 11 sm | 23 min | SSE 10 | 10 sm | Clear | 81°F | 72°F | 74% | 29.84 | |
| KTTS NASA SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY,FL | 17 sm | 23 min | S 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 77°F | 72°F | 83% | 29.85 | |
| KMLB MELBOURNE INTL,FL | 18 sm | 25 min | SE 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 81°F | 72°F | 74% | 29.88 |
Canaveral Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:09 AM EDT 3.85 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:37 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 06:32 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 07:45 AM EDT 0.63 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:21 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 01:31 PM EDT 2.90 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:34 PM EDT 0.66 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:05 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:09 AM EDT 3.85 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:37 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 06:32 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 07:45 AM EDT 0.63 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:21 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 01:31 PM EDT 2.90 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:34 PM EDT 0.66 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:05 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Canaveral Harbor Entrance, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 3.6 |
| 1 am |
| 3.8 |
| 2 am |
| 3.7 |
| 3 am |
| 3.3 |
| 4 am |
| 2.6 |
| 5 am |
| 1.9 |
| 6 am |
| 1.2 |
| 7 am |
| 0.7 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 0.9 |
| 10 am |
| 1.3 |
| 11 am |
| 1.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 1 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.2 |
Canaveral Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:14 AM EDT 3.41 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:37 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 06:32 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 07:35 AM EDT 0.66 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:21 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 01:31 PM EDT 3.00 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:49 PM EDT 0.51 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:05 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:14 AM EDT 3.41 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:37 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 06:32 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 07:35 AM EDT 0.66 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:21 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 01:31 PM EDT 3.00 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:49 PM EDT 0.51 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:05 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Canaveral Harbor Entrance, Florida (2), Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 3.1 |
| 1 am |
| 3.4 |
| 2 am |
| 3.3 |
| 3 am |
| 2.9 |
| 4 am |
| 2.3 |
| 5 am |
| 1.6 |
| 6 am |
| 1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.7 |
| 8 am |
| 0.7 |
| 9 am |
| 1 |
| 10 am |
| 1.5 |
| 11 am |
| 2.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 3 |
| 2 pm |
| 3 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.9 |
Melbourne, FL,
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