Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cocoa, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 6:18PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 4:53 PM EST (21:53 UTC) Moonrise 7:42PMMoonset 7:51AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 345 Pm Est Wed Feb 20 2019
.small craft exercise caution...
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Slight chance of showers.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 345 Pm Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Synopsis..The center of a large high pressure ridge over the western atlantic will settle north of puerto rico into the weekend, with its axis extending westward across central florida. Offshore flow will develop Sunday ahead of a weak cold front that will push into north florida.
Gulf stream hazards..Southeast winds 15 knots with combined seas falling below 7 feet tonight. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday february 18th. 40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 28 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 26 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 16 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cocoa, FL
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location: 28.4, -80.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 202058
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
358 pm est Wed feb 20 2019

Discussion
Tonight... Moisture convergence will increase in the vicinity of
lake county and I 4 corridor this evening as diffuse east and
west coast sea breezes come together. Sufficient low level
moisture will produce scattered showers as a result. Cap at 700
mb is pretty strong so do not expect deep convection (thunder) to
occur. However, locally heavy downpours are possible and showers
may persist through midnight. The bigger forecast challenge is
stratus fog late tonight. With 925 mb winds remaining around 20
knots, this does not bode well for widespread fog but moist S se
flow should be able to produce low (stratus) clouds. Have drawn
patchy fog early Thu for brevard osceola northward.

Thu... Forecast model soundings show slightly drier air advects
into the area in the deep southerly flow. This should produce even
less coverage of the low topped showers we saw during the day
today. Have tapered back the best chance for isolated showers to
late in the day, focused over the north interior. Once the morning
stratus erodes, there should be less cloud cover which will allow
max temps to climb a couple few degrees higher in the mid to
upper 80s so near record highs at sfb mco.

00z Fri - 12z sat... Latest rap40 analysis shows an anomalously
strong sfc high pres ridge pushing off the mid atlc new england
coast with its h100-h70 anticyclone reflection centered off the
carolina coast. The h30-h20 jet pattern also quite strong acrs the
eastern half of the conus... A 190kt zonal jet streak noted over
the canadian maritimes, accompanied by a 120-13kt lifting jet
streak extending back acrs the great lakes and into the central
plains.

The lifting orientation of the overall jet pattern will allow the
h100-h70 anticyclone to remain tucked in over the SW atlc thru late
week, resulting in a continuation of the deep lyr srly low mid lvl
flow regime that has generated the recent warm wx pattern. Given
this pattern has persisted for the past several svrl days, the lcl
airmass has become fully modified, so little change in temps is
anticipated. Mrng mins in the m u60s over most of the area with a
few spots along the treasure coast holding in the l70s. Aftn max
temps in the l80s along the immediate coast... M80s interior. These
will be a solid 10-15f abv climo avgs, which are in the l m50s and
m70s, respectively.

The presence of the ridge will maintain a strong mid lvl subsidence
inversion that will keep the LCL airmass capped blo 10kft. While the
prevailing srly flow will pull ocnl pockets of enhanced low lvl
moisture up from the NW carib SW atlc, overall pwat values will
remain on the low side with readings generally in the 1.00"-1.25"
range... Occasionally nudging up to 1.50". However, given the
suppressive nature of the aforementioned anticyclone and the lifting
nature of the jet stream, any mid upr lvl dynamic support will be
meager at best. Present fcst philosophy of keeping low end pops (20-
30pct) remains valid, mainly in the form of nocturnal coastal
showers and low-topped diurnal showers over the interior.

Sat-wed... (mod prev disc)
the low mid level ridge will slowly weaken and flatten into early
next week as a sharp short wave trough and its attendant low lift
rapidly acrs the oh valley great lakes region. The jet pattern acrs
the CONUS remains quite strong, which will allow the low to lift
rapidly acrs the canadian maritimes Sun night into mon. As it does,
it will abandon the SRN extension of its trailing sfc front, leaving
it to sag down the peninsula before lifting back north on Tuesday as
a weak warm front.

Latest couple of GFS model runs have meandered between stalling the
front over central fl (20 06z) and over south fl (20 12z) during the
12z mon-12z Tue time frame. Both runs, however have lifted the front
back into central fl during the 12z tue-12z Wed time frame, a
solution that is backed up by the ecmwf. This suggests diminishing
optimism of a clean FROPA thru the fl peninsula, and certainly a
continuation of precip thru the middle of next week.

Slightly cooler air could filter into the i-4 corridor, depending on
how far south the front manages to penetrate... Gfs ECMWF mos
guidance does indicate mon-wed MAX temps into the m u70s... Most
likely a combination of cool air advection on mon, then dense cloud
cover rain-cooled air on Tue wed. However, min temps in the
u50s l60s, while cooler, still will be 5-10f abv avg. Further south,
prospects for sig cool air advection into the treasure coast lake-o
region are looking less promising with MAX temps holding in the
u70s l80s... Min temps in the m u60s, largely due to thick cloud
cover and steady onshore flow dvlpg Mon night into tue.

Given the reputation for diminished reliability in the "off hour" gfs
runs, will not make any major changes to the extended fcst, other
than to add 20-30 pops to the "new day-7" (i.E. Wed) timeframe as
the boundary re-transits central fl as a warm front.

Aviation
Scattered shra should develop across the north interior, mainly
west of mco dab around sunset. Have added a tempo group for lee
around 00z. Have indicated some MVFR mist and hinted at low cloud
bases aft 08z but not indicating ifr CIGS yet. As daytime heating
commences thu, expect diurnal CU field to produce some MVFR cigs
14z-17z.

Marine
Tonight thu... Se pressure gradient is supporting 15 knots with
occasionally higher winds near 20 knots. Combination of a moderate
ne swell and choppy wind waves is producing 7 ft seas across much
of the offshore waters. So will hold onto the SCA offshore and
caution nearshore thru this evening. Winds should decrease a bit
and allow seas to drop below 7 ft overnight offshore but will
likely need to have at least a caution continue there. On thu, se
gradient will support 10-15 knots and seas 3-5 ft.

Fri-fri night... Hi pres centered east of the bahamas and extending
acrs central north fl will maintain a gentle to moderate S SE breeze
over the LCL atlc. Seas generally 3-4ft. Slgt chc of shras thru the
day... Chc of shras overnight.

Sat-sat night... Gradual windshift as the hi pres ridge begins to
weaken ahead of a strong cold front fcst to push acrs the lwr ms
valley and into the deep south. LCL pgrad will tighten slightly by
late aftn early evng, allowing winds to increase to a moderate to
fresh S SW breeze late Sat night into sun. Seas building to 3-4ft
early aftn, up to 5ft over the gulf stream north of sebastian inlet.

Seas building to 4-5ft over the entire offshore leg in the predawn
hrs Sun mrng, but holding at 3-4ft over the nearshore leg. Chc of
shras.

Sun-sun night... Frontal boundary will sag into central fl thru the
day and may push as far south as jupiter inlet lake-o aft sunset
before stalling. Gentle to moderate SW breeze thru the day, veering
to W NW north of sebastian inlet and W SW to the south btwn sunset
and midnight, then N NW areawide overnight into mon. Seas subsiding
to 2-3ft nearshore and 3-4ft offshore with the dvlpg offshore
breeze, though short pd wind chop will result in rough conds over
the open atlc. Slgt chc of shras.

Climate Record highs and warm mins for the next two days...

sanford indeed tied their record high of 85f today.

Feb 20 feb 21 feb 22
hi-max hi-min hi-max hi-min hi-max hi-min
dab 85 1988 69 2018 87 1989 69 2018 87 1962 69 2008
mco 89 1988 69 1961 88 1989 68 1989 88 2003 69 1945
sfb 85 2018 68 1961 87 2003 67 2018 88 2003 68 2008
mlb 86 1988 75 2018 88 1989 75 2018 88 2003 74 2018
vrb 87 1975 73 2018 87 2014 73 2018 89 2003 73 1961
fpr 88 1932 73 2018 89 1989 73 1961 89 2003 73 1961

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 64 83 66 81 30 20 20 20
mco 66 88 66 86 20 20 20 20
mlb 68 85 69 81 10 10 20 20
vrb 68 85 70 81 10 10 20 20
lee 66 87 65 87 40 20 20 20
sfb 65 87 66 85 30 20 20 20
orl 67 87 66 86 20 20 20 20
fpr 67 85 70 82 10 10 20 20

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... Small craft advisory until 11 pm est this evening for flagler
beach to jupiter inlet 20-60 nm.

Short term... Kelly
long term... .Bragaw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 17 mi42 min SE 7 G 12 72°F 70°F1019.6 hPa
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 20 mi54 min 68°F4 ft
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 39 mi34 min SSE 12 G 14 72°F 1019.2 hPa69°F

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Titusville, FL10 mi67 minSSE 15 G 257.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F69°F66%1018.3 hPa
Cocoa Beach, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Skid Strip, FL19 mi58 minSSE 1310.00 miFair77°F69°F79%1018.2 hPa
Cocoa - Patrick Air Force Base, FL20 mi2 hrsSSE 1310.00 miFair76°F70°F83%1018.7 hPa
Orlando International Airport, FL22 mi61 minSSE 1310.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F66°F55%1017.1 hPa

Wind History from TIX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--SE13SE5SE5------------------SE5SE5S7S12S13SE15S15
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1 day agoSE5SE5SE5SE5------------------N6N3N3CalmE5SE8E4E4SE5--SE13
2 days agoS7SE10SE7S5------------------S5S5S5SW5SW7SW6SW7W5SW5NW5W5

Tide / Current Tables for Canaveral Harbor Entrance, Florida
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Canaveral Harbor Entrance
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Wed -- 01:41 AM EST     -0.89 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:08 AM EST     5.00 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:18 PM EST     -0.59 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:16 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:27 PM EST     4.43 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1-0.7-0.9-0.30.82.13.54.554.73.92.61.20-0.5-0.40.31.42.63.74.44.33.72.6

Tide / Current Tables for Titusville, Indian River, Florida
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Titusville
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:30 AM EST     4.05 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:57 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:50 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:24 AM EST     3.99 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:16 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:26 PM EST     4.06 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:30 PM EST     4.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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444444444444444444.14.14.14.1444

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.