Wednesday, September26, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Buena Vista, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 7:18PM Wednesday September 26, 2018 7:31 AM EDT (11:31 UTC) Moonrise 7:37PMMoonset 7:32AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 425 Am Edt Wed Sep 26 2018
Today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 10 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday..East winds 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 425 Am Edt Wed Sep 26 2018
Synopsis..High pressure will build over central and north florida into the upcoming weekend, generating a gentle to moderate east to southeast breeze. The ridge will build into the deep south for the weekend, which will result in an increased onshore flow.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday, september 24th. 42 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 32 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 25 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Buena Vista, FL
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location: 28.4, -81.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 260814
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
415 am edt Wed sep 26 2018

Discussion
Narrow moisture plume extending SW out of a tropical disturbance off
the carolina coast positioned south of the i-4 corridor is embedded
within a deep lyr S SE flow that should push it into the vcnty of i-
4 by daybreak, then into the neck of the fl peninsula by sunset.

Evng raobs showed overall moisture to be somewhat lacking, with lcl
and upstream pwat values btwn 1.50"-1.75". However, latest rap40
analysis shows h100-h70 mean rh values btwn 70-80pct... Maximum btwn
i-4 and lake-o assocd with the moisture plume.

Aloft, h70 temps arnd 9c suggest weak thermal mid lvl ridging, but
h50-h70 temps are on the cool side with readings btwn -7c -8c...

yielding moderate lapse rates btwn 6.0-h 6.5c km thru the layer.

Furthermore, mid lvls are on the dry side with h85-h50 dewpoint
depressions btwn 7-10c, suggesting enhanced potential for
microbursts in the convection that does manage to form.

Mostly sunny skies to start the day should allow sfc temps to warm
into the m u80s by late morning, allowing both the east west coast
sea breezes to form by midday. With h100-h70 mean flow roughly
parallel to the orientation of the fl peninsula, expect both to make
uniform inland progress, with a late aftn merger in the vcnty of the
the fl turnpike kissimmee river basin.

Given the lack of moisture and the inland progress of the sea
breeze, will keep pops at 30-40pct over the interior with timing
btwn 16z-24z... And arnd 20pct along the coast with timing btwn 12z-
20z. Convection should be spent by sunset, will keep the interior
dry aft 00z. Slgt chc of low-topped nocturnal shras along the coast
as the h100-h70 mean flow maintains a slight onshore component.

Temps similar to recent days... Aftn maxes in the u80s l90s and
overnight mins in the l m70s.

Thu-thu night...

the mid level ridge aloft will remain just east of florida with low
level southeast flow across the area around the atlantic low level
ridge. Short range models indicate a surge of higher moisture values
lifting NW across southern sections in the afternoon where highest
shower storm chances are expected in the scattered range across the
srn interior. Will continue lower rain chances from orlando
northward with isolated convection lingering across NRN sections
into the evening. Highs near 90 along the coast to around 93 from
orlando and the NRN interior.

Fri-sun...

the mid level ridge aloft is forecast to elongate westward across
east central fl this weekend with low SE flow Fri morning becoming
easterly through the remainder of the weekend. Will keep
shower storm chances mainly in the isolated range Friday Saturday
before an uptick in moisture across the south supports scattered
shower and isolated storms chances across SRN sections by Sunday
afternoon. Highs will be in the lower-mid 90s across the interior to
start the weekend with highs 89-90 near the coast. Stronger low
level onshore flow is forecast by Sunday allowing for breezy
conditions with afternoon temps moderated some by onshore flow from
the atlantic ranging from the upper 80s coast to lower 90s interior.

The rip current risk will be increased for the upcoming weekend with
onshore flow and long period swells at east central fl beaches.

Mon-wed...

high pressure near the mid atlantic into mid week will keep a fairly
tight pressure gradient across the area through wed. Breezy onshore
winds are forecast with some enhanced moisture from an old front
across the atlantic forecast to reach the area Monday night into
Tuesday. With the stronger low level onshore flow and at times bands
of deeper moisture moving through the area rain chances will be
slightly higher into the scattered range with quick westward moving
showers and some storms. Highs are forecast to not be quite as warm
with upper 80s to near 90 for the interior and mid-upper 80s along
the coast. The stronger onshore flow will also bring a period of
rough surf to the beaches and a moderate to high risk of rip
currents.

Aviation Thru 27 12z.

Sfc winds: thru 26 12z... Vrbl AOB 3kts. Btwn 26 12z-26 15z... Bcmg
s SE 5-8kts. Btwn 26 15z-26 18z... Coastal sites bcmg E SE 7-11kts.

Btwn 26 18z-26 21z... Interior sites bcmg E SE 6-9kts. Btwn 27 01z-
27 04z... Bcmg SE 3-5kts.

Vsby wx cigs: thru 26 16z... Coastal sites slgt chc MVFR shras. Btwn
26 16z-26 20z... Interior sites chc MVFR shras slgt chc ifr tsras...

coastal sites slgt chc ifr tsras. Btwn 26 20z-26 24z... Interior
sites chc MVFR shras slgt chc ifr tsras. Aft 27 04z... Coastal sites
slgt chc MVFR shras.

Marine
Today-tonight... Bermuda ridge axis draped over the fl panhandle gulf
coast will generate a light to gentle S SE breeze acrs the lcl
atlc... Sfc winds bcmg E SE near the coast by midday as the east
coast sea breeze dvlps and pushes inland. LCL data buoys measuring 3-
4ft seas, largely due to 3ft E NE swell. Impact of this swell will
be minor, however, as dominant pds are arnd 9sec. Slgt chc
shras tsras, mainly in the gulf stream.

Thu... Se winds to 10-13 knots will keep seas in the 3 ft range near
shore and up to 4 ft offshore.

Fri-sun... High pressure north of the waters will be reinforced by
another high moving toward the mid atlc late this weekend. Onshore
winds to 10 knots Friday will increase to 15 knots Saturday and
around 15 knots Sunday. Seas will build to scec levels near shore
into Sunday with conditions becoming hazardous for small craft
across the east central fl atlantic waters into early next week.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 89 76 90 75 20 20 20 20
mco 93 75 92 75 30 10 20 10
mlb 89 78 89 77 20 20 20 20
vrb 89 78 90 75 20 20 30 20
lee 94 74 93 76 30 10 20 10
sfb 93 75 92 76 30 10 20 10
orl 93 76 93 76 30 10 20 10
fpr 89 77 89 75 20 20 30 20

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Short term aviation... Bragaw
long term impact wx... Volkmer


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 49 mi32 min NNW 1 G 1 79°F 86°F1019.9 hPa (+0.3)
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 58 mi44 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kissimmee Gateway Airport, FL9 mi36 minESE 410.00 miFair77°F75°F96%1018.8 hPa
Orlando International Airport, FL11 mi39 minESE 410.00 miA Few Clouds76°F75°F97%1018.3 hPa
Orlando Executive Airport, FL14 mi39 minNE 310.00 miFair77°F75°F94%1018.8 hPa

Wind History from ISM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3E5E8--SE10E85SE10
G14
SE8SE9E10E10E8E6E5E4E4SE4E6CalmCalmCalmSE3E4
1 day agoCalmE5E556SE5E5SE8E14
G18
SE12E10E9SE4E7E8E5E4NE4NE3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNE3NE5E3E4E3E9E11E10SE9E11E9E11E6E7E5E4E5CalmNE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Titusville, Indian River, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Canaveral Harbor Entrance, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.