Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 1:19 PM   Moonset 1:49 AM

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GMZ235 Bays And Waterways From Port Aransas To Port O'connor- 1059 Am Cdt Tue Apr 5 2022
Rest of today - South wind 5 to 10 knots. Bays smooth. Patchy fog late in the morning. Tonight - South wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Patchy fog in the evening, then areas of fog after midnight. Wednesday - Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy to occasionally rough. Wednesday night - North wind 20 to 25 knots. Bays choppy to rough. Thursday - North wind 15 to 20 knots. Bays choppy to occasionally rough. Thursday night - Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Friday - Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots shifting west in the afternoon. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Friday night - South wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Saturday - South wind 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy. Saturday night - South wind around 20 knots. Bays choppy to occasionally rough.

GMZ200 344 Am Cdt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters -
moderate onshore flow will be present today. Winds will decrease to under 15 knots tonight. There is a low to medium chance for showers and Thunderstorms across the local waters today with the best chances across the northern bays and offshore waters. If a storm does develop, there is a low chance they could become strong to severe. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms are expected to continue Friday. Dissipating convection expected Friday night, followed by subsidence/drying Saturday/Sunday, as an upper level disturbance moves east. A warming trend is expected Monday through Wednesday, with weak to moderate onshore flow.

FXUS64 KCRP 160840 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 340 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Key Messages:

- Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms today.
- Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms tomorrow.

During this period, our primary concern revolves around the potential for isolated severe storms. Though some scattered shower and thunderstorm potential is possible this morning, our time of concern is particularly during the afternoon and evening hours today and continuing into Friday. The current atmospheric setup presents favorable conditions for the development of convective activity, driven by southeasterly flow ahead of an advancing surface low and accompanying dryline across Central Texas. This influx of moisture has elevated PWATs to approximately 2.0 inches within the warm sector.

Aloft, the progression of a mid-level trough accompanied by multiple embedded shortwaves, is expected to traverse eastward.
This system will provide the necessary lift to initiate shower and thunderstorm development. Models indicate the potential for a few of these storms to be strong or severe. SBCAPE values exceeding 4000 J/kg, coupled with bulk shear values ranging between 40-50 kts, heighten the potential for severe weather. With this in mind, SPC has increased the risk for severe thunderstorms to a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for today, primarily focusing on areas northeast of I-37. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats. Concurrently, WPC maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall in the Victoria Crossroads region, highlighting the potential for localized flash flooding.

A gradual decrease in convective activity is expected by late evening as diurnal heating wanes. However, a low chance (20-30%)
of rain persists into Friday as the surface low and dryline continue their eastward trajectory. This low will allow for enhanced low-level convergence along the dryline. In addition, SBCAPE values will hover around 4000 J/kg, bulk shear will increase to 70-80 kts, and PWATs will range from 1.5 - 2.0 inches.
These atmospheric parameters suggest a continued risk of showers and thunderstorms, particularly in our eastern areas, a few of which could again be strong to severe. SPC has extended the Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms to include the entirety of the Coastal Plains.

As for temperatures, they will be warm. Highs will top out in mid 80s to low 90s in eastern portions of our area with mid 90s to low 100s out west. With dew points in the upper 70s to lower 80s this will lead to elevated heat indices tomorrow the area. Most should stay below Heat Advisory criteria (less than 110 degrees), but isolated portions of the Southern Coastal Plains could briefly get above that.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Key Messages:

- A risk of heat related impacts Monday through Wednesday across the Brush Country and southern Coastal Plains.

Concur with the deterministic GFS/ECMWF that subsidence/drying (with PWAT values over the CWA falling to below normal) will occur Saturday/Sunday as an upper level disturbance moves east of the region. A warmer airmass is predicted Monday through Wednesday, manifested by an upper ridge that builds over the region, per the GFS/ECMWF. A progressive pattern is expected to remain over the northern 2/3 of the CONUS, contributing to return flow/increasing moisture over the region beginning Saturday night/early Sunday. The GFS/ECMWF predict PWAT values to increase to near/slightly above normal over the CWA Monday through Wednesday. The combination of heating/increasing moisture will increase maximum Heat Index values over the region. WPC predicts a 40-70 percent chance that the maximum Heat Index threshold of 110F will be met over the Brush Country and southern Coastal Plains Monday through Wednesday. The NBM predicts 8s maximum swell period over the coastal waters Saturday/Sunday, which may increase the risk of rip currents along the Gulf-facing beaches of the Middle Texas coast to the Moderate category.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

The TAF forecast tonight is deceptively tricky. Model guidance is not handling the cloud cover very well. Observations show that VFR ceilings currently prevail over the area, but satellite imagery definitely hints at MVFR cloud cover developing at or shortly after 06Z across South Texas. While confidence is low, there is a chance that IFR visibility could develop for VCT and ALI so have left a TEMPO in the TAF for these sites. By midday Thursday, expect VFR conditions to prevail. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, especially over the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads, so have the mention of VCTS for CRP, ALI, and VCT. Some of these storms could be strong to severe.

MARINE
Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Moderate onshore flow will be present today. Winds will decrease to under 15 knots tonight. There is a low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms across the local waters today with the best chances across the northern bays and offshore waters. If a storm does develop, there is a low chance they could become strong to severe. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue Friday. Dissipating convection expected Friday night, followed by subsidence/drying Saturday/Sunday, as an upper level disturbance moves east. A warming trend is expected Monday through Wednesday, with weak to moderate onshore flow. Maximum Heat Index values near 90 to the lower 90s are anticipated for Tuesday/Wednesday.


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 92 78 92 76 / 30 0 20 0 Victoria 89 73 87 71 / 60 20 20 10 Laredo 102 77 98 76 / 0 10 20 0 Alice 94 75 94 73 / 30 10 30 10 Rockport 87 78 88 77 / 40 10 20 10 Cotulla 97 74 96 74 / 20 10 10 0 Kingsville 93 77 92 75 / 20 10 30 10 Navy Corpus 89 80 90 80 / 30 10 30 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Pass Cavallo
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Thu -- 02:47 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:39 AM CDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:34 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:24 PM CDT     1.28 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:17 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:42 PM CDT     0.89 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:09 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pass Cavallo, Texas, Tide feet

Port O'Connor
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Thu -- 02:47 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:34 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:38 AM CDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:16 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:38 PM CDT     0.71 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:10 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port O'Connor, Matagorda Bay, Texas, Tide feet

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Corpus Christi, TX,