Sunrise 6:42 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 3:24 AM   Moonset 3:35 PM

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GMZ235 Bays And Waterways From Port Aransas To Port O'connor- 1059 Am Cdt Tue Apr 5 2022
Rest of today - South wind 5 to 10 knots. Bays smooth. Patchy fog late in the morning. Tonight - South wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Patchy fog in the evening, then areas of fog after midnight. Wednesday - Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy to occasionally rough. Wednesday night - North wind 20 to 25 knots. Bays choppy to rough. Thursday - North wind 15 to 20 knots. Bays choppy to occasionally rough. Thursday night - Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Friday - Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots shifting west in the afternoon. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Friday night - South wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Saturday - South wind 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy. Saturday night - South wind around 20 knots. Bays choppy to occasionally rough.

GMZ200 1030 Pm Cdt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters -
high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west has resulted in a moderate to strong onshore flow today and a small craft advisory is in effect until 100 am Saturday morning. Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue through next week. The persistent onshore flow will result in seas of 3-6 feet continuing into early next week.

FXUS64 KCRP 032339 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 639 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Key Messages:

- There is a low chance for isolated severe storms across the western Brush Country late this afternoon through late this evening.

Main concern is this evening with the chances for thunderstorms, and whether they will become severe. High pressure is off to the east centered over Mississippi, and a sfc low is in northern Mexico. The pressure gradient has tightened over the Coastal Bend, and caused the winds to increase for a time this afternoon and into the evening. Thunderstorms are beginning to break out in the Big Bend region with the sfc trough that is aligned with the Rio Grande Valley. The HRRR/ARW/FV3 seem to have a good handle on this, with the GFS and ECMWF as well, but the larger models have weaker precipitation. Between 00z and 03z the storms are expected to move into northern Webb and Lasalle counties and move toward the southeast, but as they do the sfc high in Mississippi, is expected to build to the southwest, into the Coastal Bend, eastern Brush Country, and Victoria Crossroads. The models expect that the thunderstorms will get stopped by the sfc high, or pushed south down the Rio Grande Plains. The NAM barely has the thunder getting into the region, before it gets squashed. The only thing overnight then is isolated showers, and with the PWAT around 1.5" or better, a shower here or there is a low chance (<20%). Saturday, the front north of the Hill Country looks to remain there, with chances for rain to move south low (<10%), as the sfc high remains along the Coastal Bend. Saturday night, the models begin to move the front.
the GFS pushes most of the thunderstorms to the east with the isolated to scattered (15-40% chance) showers creeping into the Brush Country. ECMWF pushes it a bit south and has a 500 mb shortwave that runs over the western part, kicking off rain in the western Hill Country, and getting rain into the Brush Country overnight. The NBM has a blend of the two solutions with slight chance to chance pops (15-40%) From Victoria to Laredo and locations north.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Key Messages:

- Increasing risk of heat related impacts next week

Conditions begin with a low to medium chance (30-45%) for scattered thunderstorms Sunday. This will be due to some above normal PWAT values around the 99th percentile along with some associated energy from a upper level disturbance moving across the region to the north. The caveat with these storms will be the solid CIN values across the area which should largely keep things in check. The northern Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads should have the best chances for any convection due to some breaks in higher CIN values.

Temperatures will warm after the disturbance clears and expect our next shot of summer weather by Tuesday. Unfortunately, heat indices will be in the 110-115 degree range across the Coastal Plains and Brush Country Tuesday through Thursday. Therefore, heat stress related impacts will likely occur and the proper preparations should be done in advance.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

MVFR/VFR conditions are expected to become mainly VFR overnight with some convection around 00Z-06Z Saturday. If storms materialize expecting a low (chance <30%) with storms moving from west to east. Some storms may become severe with large hail and damaging winds as threats. Have some IFR CIG's overnight/early morning for eastern sites, otherwise VFR conditions should return tomorrow afternoon accompanied by winds gusting to around 25 knots.



MARINE
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

High pressure to the east and low pressure to the west has strengthened our onshore flow this afternoon so that a Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 100 AM Saturday Morning. However, the high pressure will nose into the Coastal Bend overnight allowing the flow to weaken. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected during the day Sunday. Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue through late next week with seas around 3-6 feet.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 74 88 75 87 / 20 20 10 20 Victoria 73 87 73 85 / 30 10 30 30 Laredo 76 94 75 91 / 40 20 30 40 Alice 74 91 74 89 / 20 20 20 30 Rockport 75 84 75 84 / 20 20 20 20 Cotulla 76 94 75 89 / 40 10 40 40 Kingsville 74 89 75 88 / 20 20 10 20 Navy Corpus 76 85 76 85 / 20 20 10 20

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ255-275.

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