Sunrise 6:32 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 3:54 PM   Moonset 3:09 AM

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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 216 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2024
Tonight - West winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. Monday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. Monday night - Northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. Tuesday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Tuesday night - North winds around 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Wednesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. Wednesday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. Thursday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. Friday - South winds around 5 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 216 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis - Persistent long period swells from the S gulf are keeping seas elevated into Monday. A frontal boundary will continue to slowly moving across the se gulf tonight with a few showers or Thunderstorms across the waters. Weak high pressure gradually builds into the region by mid week with winds and seas slowly subsiding.

FXUS62 KMLB 192005 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 405 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE

DISCUSSION
Issued at 405 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

-Strong to severe storm threat diminishing into late this afternoon across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast.

-Scattered afternoon showers and storms continuing early this week, with a few stronger storms still possible across the southern Treasure Coast on Monday.

-Turning hotter and drier than normal from mid to late week.

Currently-Tonight...An outflow boundary from earlier convection this morning that pushed south of Melbourne and the developing east coast sea breeze has helped generate scattered showers and storms across Okeechobee County and toward the coast, south of Melbourne in a moist and unstable environment. Some strong to severe storms have already formed across this region, with large hail reports up to 1.0- 1.75" in diameter, and will continue to be possible through late afternoon before convection continues to diminish in coverage and eventually pushes offshore. For now a Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for Okeechobee, Indian River, St. Lucie, and Martin counties, as well as the nearshore adjacent coastal waters through 7 PM, but this may be allowed to end a little early. Showers and isolated storms may still develop northward, mainly toward the coast through this evening where sea breeze can develop, but rain chances have trended much lower. Any storms that develop across this region may also become strong before pushing offshore.

Monday-Next Weekend...(Modified Previous Discussion) Mid level troughing will extend across the FL Peninsula early in the week with surface flow veering out of the north-northeast through Tuesday.
Each afternoon, the east coast sea breeze is expected to push inland as modest PW values of 1.3" to 1.5" remain over the area. NBM guidance continues to indicate the potential for isolated to scattered showers and storms across the area through early this week, with rain chances ranging around 40-50 percent. However, MOS guidance is coming in a little lower, so overall confidence in PoPs remain low. There will still be the potential for a few stronger storms across the southern Treasure Coast on Monday along a slowing southward moving frontal boundary, and SPC has added a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather across this region.

Drier air filters south from Wednesday through late week as surface high pressure and mid level ridging builds across the state. Mentionable PoPs (no more than 20-30%) remain confined to areas south of Orlando. Daytime temperatures Monday and Tuesday will reach to near normal (mid 80s to low 90s) with a few locations along the coast slightly below late May norms (low 80s).
A gradual warming trend returns Wednesday as onshore flow resumes and 500mb temps begin to warm, especially inland. Highs back in the low to mid 90s are expected for the latter half of the work week, except where in the mid/upper 80s at the coast behind the daily sea breeze. An early look at the upcoming holiday weekend from the NBME shows a 60 percent chance or greater for high temperatures in the 90s across the area. In addition, a sea breeze collision across the interior may become more slightly more active in the late afternoon/early evening hours, enough to mention 20-30 PoPs for now.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 405 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Conditions will continue to slowly improve across the Treasure Coast terminals this afternoon into the evening hours as showers and storms continue to move offshore. Winds are forecast to become westerly overnight around 5 knots, with VFR conditions persisting across all terminals. Winds will then pick up around 15Z out of the north-northwest near 10 knots, with gusts up to 20 knots possible, especially along the coast. Another afternoon of isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible on Monday.

MARINE
Issued at 405 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Tonight...Weak frontal boundary pushes southward into the waters into tonight, with southerly winds around 10 knots veering and becoming west to northwest late in the night. Scattered strong to severe storms will continue across the waters, mainly south of Melbourne through sunset, and then convection will gradually diminish overnight. Can't rule out some isolated storms developing and pushing offshore near to north of Melbourne though through this evening, which may also produce some strong gusts and small hail.
Seas will range from 2-3 feet.

This Week...(Modified Previous Discussion) Seas build up to 5-6 ft offshore late Monday night as surface winds veer NNE and briefly increase to around 15 kt. Seas will generally range 3-5 ft Tuesday and fall further mid to late week as high pressure builds over the waters. Rain and storm chances remain elevated on Monday before gradually tapering off mid to late week, as well. Winds NE on Tuesday, 10-15 kt, veering easterly Wednesday and beyond at or around 10 kt. The east coast sea breeze may locally increase wind speeds to around 15 kt each afternoon closer to the coast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 69 83 70 84 / 30 40 20 40 MCO 71 87 70 87 / 20 50 10 50 MLB 71 87 72 85 / 30 40 20 50 VRB 70 89 70 87 / 40 40 30 50 LEE 71 87 69 87 / 10 40 10 50 SFB 70 87 70 87 / 30 50 10 50 ORL 72 88 70 87 / 20 50 10 50 FPR 69 89 69 87 / 40 40 30 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ058- 154-159-164-254-259-264.

AM...Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for AMZ555.

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Aripeka
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Sun -- 04:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:06 AM EDT     0.83 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:24 AM EDT     2.83 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:00 PM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aripeka, Hammock Creek, Florida, Tide feet

Bayport
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Sun -- 12:02 AM EDT     2.44 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:19 AM EDT     1.00 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:58 AM EDT     2.89 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:13 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bayport, Florida, Tide feet

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