Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Aripeka, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:38PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 5:49 AM EST (10:49 UTC) Moonrise 2:43PMMoonset 2:51AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 259 Am Est Tue Dec 18 2018
Today..Northeast winds around 10 knots then becoming northwest around 5 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tonight..North winds around 5 knots then becoming northeast late in the evening, then becoming east around 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to around 15 knots with gusts to around 30 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Thunderstorms.
Thursday..South winds around 15 knots then becoming southwest late in the afternoon. Gusts around 30 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southwest winds around 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the late evening and overnight. Gusts around 35 knots. Seas 6 to 10 feet. Bay and inland waters rough. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..West winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Seas 10 to 14 feet. Bay and inland waters rough. A chance of showers.
Friday night..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to around 20 knots toward morning. Seas 10 to 14 feet. Bay and inland waters rough. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday..Northwest winds around 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 259 Am Est Tue Dec 18 2018
Synopsis.. Light winds and seas will remain over the waters through Wednesday, with no headlines expected. The next complex storm system will move into the region Thursday, with showers and Thunderstorms and overall hazardous conditions. Winds are forecast to increase near gale force Thursday night into Friday, with seas increasing up to around 14 feet or higher as well. Winds will start to diminish Saturday, and will fall even more for Sunday, but waves will be slower to decrease.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aripeka, FL
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location: 28.44, -82.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 180759
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
259 am est Tue dec 18 2018

Discussion
A quasi-zonal flow remains over the region early this morning with
ridging to our west. At the surface, high pressure is centered to our
northwest, with a low-level northwest flow in place across the local
area. For today, the ridge aloft will build over the region, with
dry weather and temperatures a couple of degrees warmer. The ridge
will continue to shift west of the area through Wednesday as a
deepening trough moves into the central u.S. The surface reflection
associated with this feature will form along the northern gulf
coast southern plains area with a warm front, along with increasing
moisture spreading eastward, leading to showers and thunderstorms for
Wednesday afternoon across mainly the southern half of the forecast
area. Overall, Wednesday will see increasing clouds with temperatures
continuing to warm up by a couple of degrees.

For Wednesday night through Thursday, the surface low will move
through the southeast, with the warm front shifting north of the
area and the cold front passing late Thursday into Thursday night.

Widespread rainfall is likely, with some localized flooding
possible. In addition, we continue to see signals in the models
highlighting the possibility of some severe weather with the squall
line that comes through on Thursday. In particular, the NAM earlier
this afternoon was showing about an 80-knot low-level jet moving
into the region, and the 00z run really has not changed all that
much. The GFS does not show quite as strong of a jet, but still
shows increasing shear over the area, similar to the nam. We still
have some time to watch this, but models have been fairly consistent
over the past couple of days in showing the possibility of some
severe weather and, indeed, the storm prediction center is already
showing a 15 percent chance for severe storms for day 4 (Thursday).

Winds will shift to the west Thursday night into Friday, likely
increasing to gale force. Take this increase in winds plus the
increased wave action into account and we have a very good setup for
some coastal flooding. We will also likely keep clouds and some
shower activity around through Friday before high pressure and drier
air finally moves in for the weekend.

Aviation
Vfr conditions are expected through the forecast period. Light and
variable winds this morning will become west to northwest this
afternoon.

Marine
Light winds and seas will remain over the waters through Wednesday,
with no headlines expected. The next complex storm system will move
into the region Thursday, with showers and thunderstorms and overall
hazardous conditions. Winds are forecast to increase near gale force
Thursday night into Friday, with seas increasing up to around 14
feet or higher as well. Winds will start to diminish Saturday, and
will fall even more for Sunday, but waves will be slower to
decrease.

Fire weather
No fire weather concerns over the next several days as relative
humidity values will remain above critical levels. Some patchy,
shallow ground fog will be possible over the next few nights, mainly
over inland areas, but no widespread fog is anticipated.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 69 53 71 63 0 0 20 90
fmy 72 55 74 65 0 0 20 60
gif 71 51 74 62 0 0 10 70
srq 69 54 70 64 0 0 40 80
bkv 70 47 73 62 0 0 10 90
spg 68 57 70 62 0 0 30 90

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

05 carlisle


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL 1 mi115 min ESE 1 G 1.9 55°F 1019.5 hPa
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 21 mi115 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 56°F 1019.9 hPa
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 33 mi55 min NE 2.9 G 4.1 57°F 64°F1019.7 hPa
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 37 mi55 min N 2.9 G 4.1
MCYF1 38 mi49 min 66°F
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 41 mi49 min NNE 6 G 7 56°F 64°F1019.5 hPa (-0.4)
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 47 mi55 min NNE 1.9 G 4.1 55°F 64°F1019.4 hPa
GCTF1 47 mi49 min 57°F 54°F
CLBF1 49 mi115 min Calm G 1 55°F 1018.5 hPa

Wind History for Clearwater Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brooksville-Tampa Bay Regional Airport, FL11 mi56 minN 00.25 miFog40°F39°F100%1019.8 hPa

Wind History from BKV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4CalmCalmW4NW8NW7NW7W6NW9NW9NW5W7W5NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoW3S3CalmN5N6N63NW4W12
G24
NW11W12NW12W6NW5NW8NW6NW4CalmN4N6N4N3N5N3
2 days agoS4S7S5S5S7S8SW5W8W7SW3S5S5S5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for Aripeka, Hammock Creek, Florida
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Aripeka
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:51 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:43 AM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:10 AM EST     2.28 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:43 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:30 PM EST     0.66 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:31 PM EST     2.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.20.80.40.20.20.40.91.522.32.221.61.20.90.70.71.11.62.22.52.62.4

Tide / Current Tables for Hudson, Florida (2)
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Hudson
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:51 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:18 AM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:35 AM EST     2.55 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:43 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:05 PM EST     0.92 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:56 PM EST     2.87 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.40.80.40.20.30.61.11.72.22.52.52.31.91.41.10.911.41.92.42.72.92.72.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.