Thursday, November23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Aripeka, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 5:35PM Thursday November 23, 2017 10:55 PM EST (03:55 UTC) Moonrise 11:01AMMoonset 9:57PM Illumination 29% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 715 Pm Est Thu Nov 23 2017
.small craft exercise caution...
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Friday..Northeast winds around 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers in the morning.
Friday night..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday..Northeast winds around 5 knots then becoming northwest around 5 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Saturday night..North winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday..North winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday night..North winds around 10 knots then becoming northeast after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots then becoming east around 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday..East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 715 Pm Est Thu Nov 23 2017
Synopsis.. A weak area of low pressure moves east of the forecast waters overnight...followed by high pressure slowly building into the eastern gulf of mexico Friday and Friday night. Interaction between the high pressure and the front east of florida will produce gusty winds near cautionary level over the northern coastal waters overnight through early Friday. As the high settles over northern florida by Saturday...winds decrease to 10 knots or less through the weekend. No other marine issues are expected.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aripeka, FL
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location: 28.44, -82.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 232357
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
657 pm est Thu nov 23 2017

Update (overnight and Friday)
00z water vapor and h4 rap analysis shows amplified deep
layer troughing digging through the central and eastern gulf
of mexico... With a large plume of mid upper level
subtropical moisture streaming northward over the florida
peninsula ahead of the trough axis. As the trough continues
to approach the area... The weak associated surface low is
coming ashore near tampa bay. Most of the favorable synoptic
lift has actually now shifted to our east and
northeast... Resulting in most of the area seeing just a few
lighter scattered showers. More concentrated shower activity
continues to move ashore into the fort myers area as of
7pm... Associated with WAA lift along a lower level theta-e
ridge extending across the SE gulf of mexico to the sw
florida coast. Latest rap progs are for this feature to
shift south with time tonight... And this should shift the
better rain chances south of fort myers eventually as well.

Elsewhere... As mentioned above... The best forcing is gone,
but weak large scale synoptic forcing ahead of the trough
axis along with abundant moisture will still support
isolated to widely scattered showers sprinkles... But qpf
amounts will be very low.

As the surface low shifts slowly southeast through the rest
of the evening... Good agreement that lower level winds from
the north NE across the nature coast will expand down into
the tampa bay area. This flow will support the development
of lower stratus across the area... Initially from tampa bay
area northward... But eventually further south as well. This
stratus will mainly be a concern for the aviation community,
but will likely make for a dreary start to the daylight
hours of Friday. Bufkit profiles from the NAM rap and local
hires models are all showing very favorable thermodynamic
profiles for the stratus... And support only a slow
improvement during Friday morning.

Can not rule out a few isolated showers Friday
morning... However... Drier air will be arriving aloft... Even
in the morning... And this should really end this potential
pretty quickly. Most nwp guidance has trended faster with
the exit of shower potential during the day Friday. By
afternoon... Looking like fairly decent weather region-wide
as the deep and even lower level moisture really becomes
scoured out from W to e.

Pleasant weather then dominates the forecast for the rest of
the holiday weekend.

Aviation (24 00z through 25 00z)...

the only terminals expected to see steady shower potential
through midnight will be kfmy krsw... Although restrictions
associated should not fall below MVFR. Further north toward
tampa bay area terminals, setup seems very favorable for the
development of widespread lower MVFR ifr CIGS after 04-06z.

Have gone with prevailing ifr for ktpa kpie lal after
midnight, with ksrq starting just a bit later. Less
favorable setup down toward fort myers later tonight and
kept things at MVFR. Slow improvement is expected Friday
morning for all terminals... So keeping restrictions in the
forecast through late morning or midday. A return to
prevailingVFR should occur Friday afternoon.

Prev discussion issued 204 pm est Thu nov 23 2017
short term (tonight - Friday)...

a closed upper low sits over the southern portion of the hudson bay
with deep troughing extending south along the east coast into the
central gulf of mexico. This trough is lending support to an area of
low pressure over the eastern gulf of mexico and associated frontal
boundary that is sweeping across florida today. The upper trough
will slowly drift eastward through the period as the surface low and
frontal boundary moves east of florida on Friday. High pressure will
build into the gulf of mexico late Friday bringing clearing
conditions into the weekend.

There are two separate bands of showers and storms making their way
ashore along the west coast of florida this afternoon. The northern
one is located along the nature coast just north of tampa bay and
the southern one is streaming onshore from sarasota southward to
fort myers. 60-90% pops can be expected through the evening hours in
these bands. Rain chances decrease overnight but will still remain
around 30-50% through Friday afternoon. Temperatures will be
slightly below average over the next couple of days as the high
pressure filters in cooler air in the wake of the low pressure and
frontal boundary.

Long term (Friday night through Thursday)...

as we enter the medium range timeframe, the pattern will begin to
change as surface low pressure departs into the atlantic ocean, and
surface high pressure builds southward. This will usher in a rather
prolonged period of relatively cool and dry conditions with a series
of reinforcing cold fronts and dry stable post-frontal airmasses.

For the upcoming weekend, weak surface high pressure will build
southward to the northern gulf coast. A subtle inverted trough
feature may yield increased cloudiness and a shower or two over the
southern eastern gulf of mexico Saturday into Sunday, but this
feature will be ushered quickly southward by a secondary cold front
set to move through early next week. This front will allow for the
dry and seasonal weather to persist through the end of next week.

Daytime highs will rise into the low to mid 70s each day with lows
ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s north to the middle 50s and
lower 60s south. As usual, warmer conditions will reside along the
immediate coast due to water temperatures in the upper 60s and low
70s.

Marine...

an area of low pressure moves across the nature coast with a frontal
boundary extending across the coastal waters. Showers and storms
will continue through the evening hours, then diminishing in
coverage by early Friday morning. High pressure builds into the gulf
of mexico on Friday and into the weekend. Interaction between the
high pressure and the front east of florida will produce gusty winds
near cautionary level late tonight through early Friday. As the high
settles over northern florida by Saturday, the winds decrease to 10
knots or less through the weekend. No other marine issues are
expected.

Fire weather...

high rain chances and humidity levels will preclude any fire weather
concerns through the period.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 63 72 59 74 30 30 0 0
fmy 67 77 60 78 70 30 10 0
gif 62 72 56 76 30 30 10 0
srq 64 72 58 75 30 30 10 0
bkv 60 70 50 74 30 30 10 0
spg 62 71 60 73 30 30 10 0

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Update aviation marine... 14 mroczka
upper air... 99
decision support... 99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL 1 mi122 min NE 1 G 5.1 66°F 1010.7 hPa
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 21 mi62 min NNE 15 G 19 1010.7 hPa
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 33 mi44 min N 15 G 18 67°F 70°F1010.9 hPa
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 37 mi50 min N 7 G 9.9
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 37 mi188 min W 2.9 G 5.1
MCYF1 38 mi38 min 72°F
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 41 mi38 min N 11 G 13 67°F 71°F1010.3 hPa
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 47 mi44 min N 5.1 G 8 67°F 71°F1010.6 hPa
CLBF1 49 mi62 min NNW 4.1 G 8 69°F 1009.6 hPa

Wind History for Clearwater Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brooksville, Hernando County Airport, FL11 mi63 minN 64.00 miFog/Mist66°F64°F93%1010.8 hPa

Wind History from BKV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8NE6E9NE6E5E7CalmSE4SE4CalmNE3NE4N8N9NE11NE18NE7NE9NE8NE10NE8NE7N7N6
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmNE3E3CalmCalmNE3NE4NE5NE4NW3N5NE8NE10NE7NE5NE5NE4NE4NE4NE8NE6NE7
2 days agoE9E9E7E6E5NE3E5NE5E4NE3E4E4SE9
G16
SE10SE13SE11E7SE7E3SE3E4CalmSE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Aripeka, Hammock Creek, Florida
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Aripeka
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:48 AM EST     2.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:55 AM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:00 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:36 PM EST     2.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:57 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:03 PM EST     0.92 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.52.22.82.92.82.41.91.30.80.40.1-00.20.81.422.32.42.21.91.61.310.9

Tide / Current Tables for Hudson, Hudson Creek, Florida
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Hudson
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:13 AM EST     3.27 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:30 AM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:00 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:01 PM EST     2.69 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:38 PM EST     1.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:57 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.533.33.22.82.21.50.80.3-0-00.30.91.62.22.52.72.62.31.91.61.31.31.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.