Saturday, May27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Aripeka, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 8:22PM Saturday May 27, 2017 11:43 AM EDT (15:43 UTC) Moonrise 7:30AMMoonset 9:30PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 927 Am Edt Sat May 27 2017
Rest of today..Variable winds less than 10 knots becoming northwest around 10 knots early in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tonight..West winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday..West winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday night..West winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday..West winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tuesday..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tuesday night..North winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday..North winds around 5 knots then becoming west in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters smooth.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 927 Am Edt Sat May 27 2017
Synopsis.. High pressure will be the dominant player in our weather across the eastern gulf of mexico through the next several day. The pattern will keep winds and seas generally low. Only gusty conditions will occur near the coast each afternoon as the daily sea-breeze develops and migrates onshore.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aripeka, FL
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location: 28.44, -82.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 271405
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
1005 am edt Sat may 27 2017

Update (rest of today through Sunday)
14z water vapor and h4 rap analysis shows a pattern already
set up to support a benign weekend forecast for the entire
area. Harmless upper level shortwave is exiting our region
this morning... Followed by mid upper level high pressure
building expanding east NE overhead from the gulf of
mexico. This upper level ridging will be in control of our
weather through the duration of the holiday weekend. Very
dry representation on WV imagery was confirmed by the 12z
raob. Once again a very dry troposphere was sampled through
the entire column. The measured pw this morning was only
0.62". To put that into perspective for the 27th of may in
central florida, the 10th percentile value for today is
1.01" and the lowest value every sampled for today is 0.57".

This puts today's pw well below the 5th percentile of
values. Basically... The atmosphere over our heads is dry.

With the lack of moisture and no synoptic forcing to speak
of, it is no wonder our skies are clear this morning. Other
than some passing thin cirrus tonight or Sunday, the pattern
will continue to suggest mostly clear skies right through
the weekend.

At the surface... The subtropical ridge axis lies directly
across the central or south-central fl peninsula and into
the eastern gulf of mexico. This ridge axis will not move
much through the weekend. The ridge axis in the vicinity
means winds and gradient flow are weak... And will be
dominated by sea and land breeze circulations during the day
and night respectively.

Today tonight... As mentioned above, generally benign weather
conditions with warm seasonable temperatures and near 0%
chance of rainfall. Only concern with the current weather
has to do with the forestry fire weather community, as
relative humidity values will be rather low this afternoon
away from the moderating influence of the sea-breeze. Based
on our morning raob, once we mix the boundary layer to
between 900-950mb, we will mix down some very dry air just
above the surface. It will not take very long to reach this
level given the time of year and near 100% of possible
insolation. Therefore, an extended period of sub-critical
level relative humidity is forecast for inland areas.

High temperatures by mid-afternoon should be in the lower
90s away from the coast and middle 80s at the coast. Low
temperatures tonight looks seasonable also, with middle to
upper 60s common inland and lower to middle 70s at the
beaches.

Sunday... More of the same, under plenty of sunshine.

High temperatures are likely to be a degree or two warmer,
but so will dewpoints. Therefore, it will begin to feel a
bit more humid for those with outdoor activities planned.

Have a fun and safe Saturday everyone!

Aviation (27 12z through 28 12z)
Benign aviation forecast through the TAF period for all
terminals. Continued dry atmosphere will keep skies mostly
clear... With only a few passing cirrus at times later in the
forecast period. Winds light and variable early this morning
will shift onshore w-wnw 8-12 knots this afternoon... With
sea-breeze progressively moving inland after 17z. Winds
diminish and become light and variable once again a few
hours after sunset. Some slight potential for shallow MVFR
type ground fog toward dawn Sunday for klal kpgd, however,
confidence still low enough to exclude mention with current
tafs.

Marine
High pressure will be the dominant player in our weather
across the eastern gulf of mexico through the next several
days. The pattern will keep winds and seas generally low.

Only gusty conditions will occur near the coast each
afternoon as the daily sea-breeze develops and migrates
onshore.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 88 73 89 76 0 0 10 0
fmy 93 72 92 73 0 0 0 0
gif 93 68 94 73 0 0 0 0
srq 84 71 86 74 0 0 10 0
bkv 91 64 90 70 0 10 10 0
spg 87 74 88 76 0 0 10 0

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... Red flag warning until 7 pm edt this evening for highlands-
polk.

Gulf waters... None.

Update aviation marine... Mroczka
decision support... Fleming
upper air quality control... Rude


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL 1 mi110 min NW 4.1 G 6 77°F 1019.7 hPa
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 21 mi110 min NNE 6 G 7 76°F 1020.1 hPa
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 33 mi44 min NNW 5.1 G 6 77°F 80°F1019.6 hPa (+1.1)
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 37 mi44 min ESE 1.9 G 4.1
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 37 mi50 min N 1 G 1.9
MCYF1 38 mi44 min 83°F
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 41 mi44 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 76°F 81°F1019.7 hPa (+1.2)
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 47 mi44 min ENE 5.1 G 7 79°F 81°F1019.2 hPa (+1.3)
CLBF1 49 mi110 min Calm G 1.9 80°F 1018.4 hPa

Wind History for Clearwater Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brooksville, Hernando County Airport, FL11 mi51 minVar 410.00 miFair82°F57°F44%1019.4 hPa

Wind History from BKV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW6SW7W6NW11W12NW10W6W6W4S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN44
1 day agoNW14
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W7W3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmN4N7NE4
2 days agoSW12
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Tide / Current Tables for Aripeka, Hammock Creek, Florida
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Aripeka
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:36 AM EDT     2.87 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:30 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:59 AM EDT     0.90 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:36 PM EDT     3.63 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:55 PM EDT     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.41.42.32.82.92.62.31.81.410.91.222.93.53.63.42.82.21.50.70.1-0.3-0.5

Tide / Current Tables for Hudson, Hudson Creek, Florida
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Hudson
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:01 AM EDT     3.22 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:30 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:34 AM EDT     1.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:01 PM EDT     4.08 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:30 PM EDT     -0.68 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.52.433.23.12.72.21.71.31.31.72.43.23.84.13.93.32.51.60.6-0.2-0.6-0.6-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.