Saturday, September23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Conway, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 7:21PM Saturday September 23, 2017 6:55 AM EDT (10:55 UTC) Moonrise 9:18AMMoonset 8:49PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 409 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday afternoon...
Today..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with a dominant period 14 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 7 to 10 feet with a dominant period 15 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 8 to 11 feet with a dominant period 14 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 8 to 11 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 8 to 11 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Monday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Seas 6 to 8 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 8 feet.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 409 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
Synopsis..Hazardous conditions for small craft operation will develop today, then extend into early next week as hurricane maria moves northward to the east of the bahamas and reaches to offshore the carolinas. A moderate to fresh northeast to north breeze and large swells can be expected over the weekend, then swells will be slow to subside early next week.
Gulf stream hazards..SEas gradually building 7 to 9 feet north of sebastian inlet late tonight into Saturday. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Friday september 22nd. 40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 26 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 11 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Conway, FL
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location: 28.53, -81.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 230814
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
414 am edt Sat sep 23 2017

Increased rain chances today with locally heavy rainfall...

Hazardous boating and surf conditions this weekend...

Discussion
Today tonight... The late evening early morning wind surge along
the coast has dampened and become more uniform e-ne (onshore) at
8-12kt. This will support the current speckling of spotty showers
over the coastal waters to grow in number as the morning unfolds.

Expect winds to persist, but with occasional gusts to 20kt in
vicinity of passing convective cells. A weak inverted surface
trough is still somewhat evident which further supports convective
concerns in the presence of the moisture rich air mass. Keeping a
threat locally heavy rain as a main hazard given coastal
convergence this morning, and the increased vulnerability of the
saint johns river for later today. Rain chances 50-60 percent
today, retreating back to the space and treasure coasts tonight at
30-40 percent; 20 percent or less elsewhere.

Troughing aloft is awkwardly situated along the eastern seaboard
from north fl to just offshore new england with a stubborn mid-
western dome of high pressure ensuring that TC maria treks north
well-east of florida, even the remainder of the bahama chain, as it
passes by the area. Maria's main effects will be to tighten the
pressure gradient elevating winds, especially across the
coastal marine areas and tossing large swells toward the shore.

A high threat of rip currents will be an obvious hazard, but high
surf will further cause beach conditions to be hazardous later this
afternoon through the weekend.

Max temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees, with min
temperatures in the low to mid 70s.

Sun... TC maria will continue to move away from the bahamas as a
mid-upper closed low retrogrades toward the central gulf. Weak
ridging nosing south between the two features will allow a drier
and more stable airmass to shift down the southeast coast. Deeper
moisture initially over our central and southern sections should
support scattered showers and isolated storms (30-40% advertised).

Low-level flow will back from the east to northeast as the
pressure gradient loosens, shifting morning coastal rain chances
west of i-95 early in the afternoon. MAX temps in the upper 80s
to near 90, with min temps low to mid 70s.

A large and long-period swell generated by maria will continue
the threat of large breaking waves in the surf zone and lead to a
high risk for life-threatening rip currents.

Mon-fri... Anomalously low moisture levels, courtesy of drier
north flow on the backside of TC maria, will keep precip chances
below climatology through the period. No more than isolated
showers (pops 20% or less) are advertised at this time, with most
locales expected to remain dry through the week. A weakening
pressure gradient into mid-week will lower winds, becoming light
at times. MAX temps will be near climo in the upper 80s near 90.

Min temps in the low to mid 70s. Dangerous surf and rip currents
will continue at the beaches through early next week.

Aviation
Onshore wind surge ~g20kt has dampened for coastal sites
and now more uniform ene 8-12kt. However, coastal convergence
supporting a bkn025-030 deck with some inland transition to near
kmco-kism. Expect marine showers to increase in number to promote
vcsh through 15-17z all coastal sites, reaching inland sites by 14-
15z. Vcts ensues 17-19z.

Tempo 3sm shra bkn025-035 once timing and distribution better
delineated this morning.

Marine
Today tonight... Marine conditions will be deteriorating as
hurricane maria gains latitude near longitude 72w. E NE winds up
to 15-20 knots and building long period swells generated by maria
will lead to hazardous conditions for small craft. Scattered-
numerous showers and isolated lighting storms will also affect the
atlantic waters. Seas 6-8 feet nearshore today, building to 8-11
feet tonight. Offshore, seas becoming 8-12 feet today and tonight.

Sun... Hazardous boating conditions continue as large swell from
maria propagates into the local waters. Seas 7-10 feet nearshore
and 10-12 feet offshore. Winds start between 15-20 knots early,
decreasing to 10-15 knots at night.

Mon-wed... Seas will remain at or above SCA criteria through the
period as large swells from maria continue to move into the local
waters, though they will gradually subside into mid week. Nearshore
seas 6-9 feet mon, 5-8 tue, and 4-7 on wed. Offshore seas 8-12
feet mon, 7-10 tue, and 6-9 wed. Winds will become northerly
around 10 knots leading to less of a wind chop.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 86 75 86 74 60 20 20 10
mco 87 75 89 73 60 20 30 10
mlb 88 77 87 75 60 30 30 10
vrb 88 76 88 75 60 40 40 10
lee 90 73 90 73 50 20 30 10
sfb 88 73 89 73 60 20 20 10
orl 87 74 89 72 60 20 30 10
fpr 86 76 87 74 60 40 40 10

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... High surf advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 4 am edt Monday
for coastal volusia county-indian river-martin-northern
brevard county-southern brevard county-st. Lucie.

Am... Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt Monday for flagler beach to
volusia-brevard county line 0-20 nm-sebastian inlet to
jupiter inlet 20-60 nm-volusia-brevard county line to
sebastian inlet 0-20 nm.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt Monday for flagler beach to
volusia-brevard county line 20-60 nm-volusia-brevard county
line to sebastian inlet 20-60 nm.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 4 pm edt Monday
for sebastian inlet to jupiter inlet 0-20 nm.

Ulrich sharp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 41 mi37 min NNE 7 G 9.9 78°F 83°F1013 hPa
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 44 mi34 min 83°F4 ft
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 62 mi25 min NE 14 G 18 82°F 84°F1012.2 hPa73°F
ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL 70 mi121 min ENE 4.1 G 6 74°F 1012.1 hPa

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Orlando Executive Airport, FL2 mi62 minN 610.00 miFair76°F73°F91%1012.1 hPa
Orlando International Airport, FL7 mi62 minN 710.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F73°F100%1011.5 hPa
Kissimmee Gateway Airport, FL17 mi59 minNNE 410.00 miFair75°F73°F94%1012.1 hPa
Orlando / Sanford Airport, FL18 mi62 minNNE 410.00 miFair75°F71°F88%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from ORL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3N5N6N6N8N8N6NE11NE10N16
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1 day agoN4N4N4N7NE8NE7NE10NE10E10NE12NE11NE9NE13NE9NE6NE5NE5NE4NE3NE3CalmCalmN4N5
2 days ago--------------------E13E12E10E8E7E6NE5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Titusville, Indian River, Florida
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Titusville
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:42 AM EDT     4.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:45 AM EDT     4.33 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:15 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:24 PM EDT     4.29 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:54 PM EDT     4.34 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.3

Tide / Current Tables for Canaveral Harbor Entrance, Florida
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Canaveral Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:01 AM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:27 AM EDT     4.06 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:34 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:41 PM EDT     3.51 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.921.10.3-0.10.20.81.62.53.5443.52.81.80.90.30.30.61.222.83.43.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.