Sunrise 6:45 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 3:27 AM   Moonset 3:36 PM

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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 105 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
Tonight - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north late this evening, then becoming east after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: east 1 foot at 2 seconds and west 1 foot at 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms this evening. Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: southeast 1 foot at 2 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Monday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: southwest 1 foot at 3 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: south 1 foot at 3 seconds and south 1 foot at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Tuesday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. Wednesday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. Thursday - Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 105 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis - Atlantic high pressure ridging into the northeastern gulf of mexico this weekend will slide south by mid week, with southeasterly winds becoming more southerly by Wednesday. Winds will turn onshore near the coast each afternoon with the sea breeze. A few showers or storms will be possible each day, mainly in the afternoon and early evening hours. Otherwise, winds will remain less than 15 knots with seas of no more than 2 feet.

FXUS62 KTBW 041710 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 110 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER

DISCUSSION
Issued at 106 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

There is more moisture in place across the penesula this afternoon.
Surface dewpoints are generally in the upper 60s to near 70. Latest visible satellite imagery indicates an expansive cumulus field. Not seeing much in the way of vertical development but expect this will begin later this afternoon. PW values will continue to rise this afternoon and evening to around 1.6 inches. These values are around the 90th percentile for early May climatology. Additionally, there is a weak mid-level shortwave trough moving through the region. All of these factors coupled with peak afternoon heating should lead to our best chance for showers/storms in quite a few days. Chances will range from 20-50% with higher chances across the interior. Activity should peak around 00z (8pm) and begin to diminish in coverage and intensity shortly after this timeframe. Mostly dry conditions are forecast overnight with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

Moisture looks to fade a bit tomorrow afternoon with PW dropping by a tenth of an inch or so. Additionally, mid-level ridging builds in with anticyclonic flow aloft. Due to these factors, decided to lower PoPs slightly for Sunday afternoon. Still expect isolated to scattered showers to develop with precipitation chances around 20- 40%. Highs will once again be on the warm side in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Similar conditions are forecast on Monday with PoPs tapering off in the 20-30% range Monday afternoon.

The surface high will move overhead by Tuesday and slightly drier air will move into the region. PoPs will continue to decrease to only around 10-20% on Tuesday. Upper level heights will continue to build across the region throughout the remainder of the week. These increasing heights will lead to climbing temperatures and dry conditions. Highs Wednesday through the remainder of the forecast period will be in the low 80s to mid 90s. Lows will generally be near 70.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 106 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

VFR conditions will continue across the terminals. A widespread cumulus field has developed across the region. Expect showers/storms to develop later this afternoon/evening in the moist environment. Went ahead and introduced VCTS in the terminals at KPGD, KFMY, KRSW, and KLAL. The highest confidence in showers/storms is at KLAL in the interior. Any ongoing showers/storms should diminish in coverage and intensity after 02z with dry conditions overnight.

MARINE
Issued at 348 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Atlantic high pressure will ridge into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico through the rest of the weekend and into early next week, with southeasterly flow turning onshore near the coast each afternoon with the sea breeze. The ridge will drift south Tuesday and Wednesday, with winds becoming slightly more southerly. Wind speeds will remain below headline criteria. Rain chances will remain low, but a few sea breeze storms could drift into the waters each day during the afternoon and evening hours.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 106 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Afternoon/evening showers/storms are forecast to develop over the next couple of days. Drier conditions will arrive around mid-week.
Minimum RH values will drop down into the 30-40% range across the interior next week but winds will be below red flag criteria.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 89 73 88 73 / 20 20 30 20 FMY 90 70 90 70 / 40 40 30 20 GIF 91 69 90 69 / 30 20 30 20 SRQ 89 71 89 70 / 20 20 20 10 BKV 91 65 90 65 / 20 20 30 20 SPG 87 74 87 75 / 20 20 20 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Bayport
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Sat -- 04:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:01 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:45 AM EDT     3.08 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:42 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bayport, Florida, Tide feet

Aripeka
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Sat -- 04:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:48 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:11 AM EDT     3.01 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:29 PM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:43 PM EDT     2.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aripeka, Hammock Creek, Florida, Tide feet

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