Wednesday, January17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pine Island, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 5:59PM Wednesday January 17, 2018 8:42 PM EST (01:42 UTC) Moonrise 7:42AMMoonset 6:39PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 813 Pm Est Wed Jan 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est Thursday...
Rest of tonight..North winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to around 20 knots toward morning. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy to rough.
Thursday..North winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to around 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday night..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday..Northeast winds around 10 knots then becoming northwest around 5 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday night..North winds around 5 knots then becoming northeast around 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday..East winds around 10 knots then becoming northeast around 5 knots early in the afternoon, then becoming north late in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday night..Northeast winds around 10 knots then becoming east after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday..East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday night..East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Monday..South winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 813 Pm Est Wed Jan 17 2018
Synopsis.. A strong cold front has exited the forecast waters this evening. Advisory level northerly wind and rough seas are ongoing across the eastern gulf of mexico and will continue into Thursday morning. High pressure building just to our north later Thursday will result in a period of lighter winds and calmer seas by Friday...lasting into at least the first half of the upcoming weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pine Island, FL
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location: 28.56, -82.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 180047
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
747 pm est Wed jan 17 2018

Aviation (18 00z through 19 00z)
Cold front has exited south of the area this evening. A band
of post-frontal MVFR CIGS has dropped south of
ktpa kpie klal ksrq... And prevailingVFR conditions can be
expected for these terminals the rest of the forecast
period. The clouds are dissipating as they head south... So
just a chance of a brief MVFR cig for kpgd kfmy krsw through
04z... But chances seem to be decreasing with time. After
04z...VFR for all through the period. Gusty NW winds will
become more northerly and less gusty later tonight... And
generally stay at or less than 10 knots for the daylight
hours Thursday.

Prev discussion issued 502 pm est Wed jan 17 2018

Freeze warning expanded...

update (overnight through early Thursday morning)...

late afternoon high resolution guidance members are adding
increased confidence in a full swing of the winds to a more
northerly or even slightly northeasterly direction during
the second of tonight. If this verifies, there is little
reason to believe that in an advection event such as this,
and given the nearby downstream temperatures already in the
forecast, that colder temperatures (dropping to around
freezing or slightly below) will not eventually make their
way into portions of northern pinellas, coastal manattee,
coastal sarasota, coastal charlotte, and interior lee
counties. Obviously every location in these zones will not
reach freezing... Especially some immediate shore locations,
and much of southern pinellas county, where at least some
fetch of flow off the waters is unavoidable. However,
confidence is now high enough in sufficient areal coverage
of freeze criteria to add these zones to the current freeze
warning. Hazard statement (npwtbw) has been issued, forecast
grids have been updated, and zfp will be issued shortly.

Although some colder temperatures have been added to these
areas above, and wind chills later tonight are now a couple
of degrees colder, wind chill advisories were already in
effect and these areas, and the changes do not impact or
change this hazard.

In addition... Although Thursday night will not be quite as
cold as tonight... It will still be well below normal. The
area of potential freezing temperatures will shrink
considerably from what is in place tonight, but portions of
the nature coast will not escape one additional night of
freezing temps. Have gone ahead and issued a freeze watch
for levy citrus sumter hernando and inland pasco county from
12am Friday through 9 am Friday.

Once this potential freeze is over... Temperatures really
begin to moderate. Temperatures warm very quickly this
weekend... And a lot of the region is expected to see
temperatures back up into the upper 60s to middle 70s by
Sunday.

Prev discussion... Issued 233 pm est Wed jan 17 2018
short term (through Thursday)...

a cold front will work its way through florida as we go
into the afternoon and evening hours. A few clouds will be
associated with the front but no rain is expected. Clouds
will clear a few hours after frontal passage and then most
models agree we will see plummeting dew point
temperatures... Strong northwesterly winds... .Clear
skies... And an arctic airmass settling into the area. All
these ingredients together will result in a very cold night
for western florida.

We will see temperatures in the mid 20's for areas
north of i-4. As we move south of i-4 the farther away from the
coast you go the colder you will get. Along the coast temperatures
could stay just above freezing... But once you get east of i-75
temperatures will be upper 20's to low 30's. Factoring in the winds
(which will be around 10-13 mph) and wind chill values will be the
20's for almost everyone. Some spots in levy county could even see
temperatures in the upper teens.

The arctic airmass will help to keep us clear and cool
through the day on Thursday. We will get plenty of sunshine
but temperatures will struggle to get into the 50's through
the afternoon.

Long term(Thursday night-Wednesday)...

surface high pressure will remain over the region for
Friday and much of the weekend, with a general warming trend
poised to take place. Friday morning will be the last of
the cooler starts for the next week or so, with low
temperatures in the mid to upper 20s across the nature coast
and then 30s and 40s elsewhere. Another freeze for nature
coast seems likely at this point. Highs Friday afternoon
will be in the upper 50s to upper 60s and then warming each
day through the weekend. By the time we get to Sunday
afternoon, portions of the southwest florida region will
approach 80 degrees for highs.

For early next week, another mid upper-level trough will move into
the eastern part of the country, with an associated cold front
approaching the southeast on Monday. This approaching boundary will
turn our winds more to the southwest and south, allowing
temperatures and dew points to rise even more for Monday. The front
tries to move through on Tuesday, but most of the support aloft
passes well to our north, so the boundary will likely be decaying as
it moves through the peninsula. Even still, there will be about a 20-
30 percent chance for a few showers Monday and Monday night ahead of
it. High pressure then moves in quickly over the southeast for
Wednesday, with just a slight cool-down.

Marine...

a strong cold front will bring gusty winds through the rest
of today and into parts of the overnight hours. Gale force
wind gusts and seas building up to 8 feet can't be ruled
out. High pressure will slowly move toward the region late
tomorrow into the weekend, with improving winds and seas.

Modest easterly wind surges may yield cautionary winds at
times. A cold front will approach the waters early next
week, this may allow for patchy sea fog development as
moisture rides up over the cooler gulf waters. Winds may
also increase in response to the frontal passage mid week.

Fire weather...

a strong cold front will bring breezy north winds and
plummeting dew points overnight. Humidity will easily get
below critical levels tomorrow. However, the ercs and winds
will remain low. This will keeps us above red flag
conditions for Thursday. Moisture will quickly return Friday
and into the weekend with easterly flow allowing us to stay
above critical levels for the rest of the forecast period.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 31 52 38 61 0 0 0 0
fmy 32 57 41 67 0 0 0 0
gif 28 52 36 64 0 0 0 0
srq 34 53 39 62 0 0 0 0
bkv 25 50 30 61 0 0 0 0
spg 34 51 40 61 0 0 0 0

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk until 7 am est Thursday for coastal
charlotte-coastal hillsborough-coastal lee-coastal
manatee-coastal sarasota-pinellas.

Freeze warning from 11 pm this evening to 9 am est
Thursday for coastal charlotte-coastal hernando-
coastal hillsborough-coastal manatee-coastal pasco-
coastal sarasota-desoto-hardee-highlands-inland
charlotte-inland hillsborough-inland lee-inland
manatee-inland sarasota-pinellas-polk.

Wind chill advisory from 11 pm this evening to 10 am est
Thursday for coastal charlotte-coastal hillsborough-
coastal lee-coastal manatee-coastal sarasota-desoto-
hardee-highlands-inland charlotte-inland hillsborough-
inland lee-inland manatee-inland sarasota-pinellas-
polk.

Hard freeze warning from 11 pm this evening to 9 am est
Thursday for coastal citrus-coastal levy-inland
citrus-inland hernando-inland levy-inland pasco-
sumter.

Freeze watch from late Thursday night through Friday
morning for coastal citrus-coastal hernando-coastal
levy-inland citrus-inland hernando-inland levy-inland
pasco-sumter.

Wind chill advisory until 10 am est Thursday for coastal
citrus-coastal hernando-coastal levy-coastal pasco-
inland citrus-inland hernando-inland levy-inland
pasco-sumter.

Gulf waters... Small craft advisory until 6 am est Thursday for charlotte
harbor and pine island sound-coastal waters from
tarpon springs to suwannee river fl out 20 nm-tampa
bay waters-waters from tarpon springs to suwannee
river fl out 20 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm est Thursday for waters
from bonita beach to englewood fl out 20 to 60 nm-
waters from englewood to tarpon springs fl out 20 to
60 nm.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est Thursday for coastal
waters from bonita beach to englewood fl out 20 nm-
coastal waters from englewood to tarpon springs fl
out 20 nm.

Update aviation marine... 99
upper air... 99
decision support... 99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 29 mi108 min N 20 G 24 48°F 1027.3 hPa
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 41 mi42 min NW 22 G 26 47°F 56°F1027 hPa (+0.9)
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL 44 mi42 min N 9.9 G 13 41°F 1027.7 hPa (+1.8)23°F
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 45 mi48 min NNW 7 G 11
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 45 mi126 min NW 7 G 11
MCYF1 46 mi42 min 60°F
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 49 mi42 min NNW 20 G 24 48°F 58°F1026.4 hPa (+0.8)

Wind History for Clearwater Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brooksville, Hernando County Airport, FL13 mi49 minWNW 910.00 miFair43°F34°F71%1026.6 hPa
Crystal River Airport, FL22 mi47 minNNW 610.00 miFair43°F32°F66%1027.1 hPa

Wind History from BKV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW9
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1 day agoNE7NE7NE7NE7NE6NE4NE3CalmNE5NE4NE6NE6NE7NE9E5NE7NE6NE7N9NE5N6N4CalmCalm
2 days agoN7N5N8N6N7N7N8NE9NE8NE7NE7N8NE9N9NE11NE10N6NE9NE9NE10NE7NE7E9NE9

Tide / Current Tables for Bayport, Florida
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Bayport
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:06 AM EST     3.04 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:23 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:41 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:54 AM EST     -0.49 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:46 PM EST     2.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:57 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:39 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:47 PM EST     0.81 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.832.92.521.30.70.1-0.4-0.5-0.20.41.21.92.42.52.321.61.20.90.81.11.8

Tide / Current Tables for Aripeka, Hammock Creek, Florida
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Aripeka
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:32 AM EST     2.93 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:23 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:41 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:41 AM EST     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:12 PM EST     2.40 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:58 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:39 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:34 PM EST     0.66 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.82.92.72.21.71.10.5-0-0.3-0.400.71.52.12.42.32.11.71.30.90.70.71.21.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.