Sunday, February17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ridge Manor, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 6:19PM Sunday February 17, 2019 11:19 PM EST (04:19 UTC) Moonrise 4:18PMMoonset 5:24AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 856 Pm Est Sun Feb 17 2019
Rest of tonight..South winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Areas of sea fog reducing visibility to 1 nautical mile or less. A chance of showers.
Monday..South winds around 10 knots diminishing to around 5 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Areas of sea fog reducing visibility to 1 nautical mile or less. A chance of showers.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots then becoming east around 15 knots toward morning. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Tuesday..East winds around 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Wednesday..South winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday night..South winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Thursday..South winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thursday night..South winds around 10 knots then becoming southeast around 5 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday..South winds around 5 knots then becoming southwest late in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 856 Pm Est Sun Feb 17 2019
Synopsis..High pressure over the atlantic will continue the southerly flow through Monday with the threat of sea fog possible. The greatest threat for fog will be later tonight into Monday. A cold front will move into the northern waters Monday night into early Tuesday before quickly dissipating. Some showers are possible across the northern waters ahead and along the frontal boundary. High pressure quickly takes back over with south to southeast winds through the remainder of the period.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ridge Manor, FL
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location: 28.57, -82.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 180004
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
704 pm est Sun feb 17 2019

Update
Looking at latest satellite images not much sign of any sea fog,
but as the night progresses the chance should increase, along with
some fog over land. However, the latest models are indicating that
a deck of clouds between about 3500 and 6000 feet will develop
across the area in the moist southerly flow overnight into Monday
morning and this would limit the overall fog threat on land. For
now will leave the forecast as it is and continue with the patchy
to areas of fog sea fog.

Aviation
Areas of MVFR local ifr conditions will be possible late tonight
into Monday morning as some low clouds and fog develop. Otherwise,
vfr conditions are expected to prevail through Monday with some
areas of ceilings between 3500 and 6000 feet. Southerly flow at
5 to 10 knots tonight will increase to around a 10 knots Monday
mid to late morning and then shift to southwesterly during Monday
afternoon.

Marine...

high pressure over the atlantic will continue the southerly flow
through Monday with the threat of sea fog developing. The greatest
threat for fog will be tonight into tomorrow morning. A cold
front will move into the northern waters Monday night into early
Tuesday before quickly dissipating. High pressure quickly takes
back over with south to southeast winds through the remainder of
the period. A few showers are possible early in the week, but rain
chances generally remain low.

Prev discussion issued 221 pm est Sun feb 17 2019
short term (tonight through Monday)...

our friends to the north across the tennessee valley and southern
appalachians will see periods of heavy rainfall as low pressure
moves east and drags a cold front along with it. However, due to
strong ridging across the bahamas and SE fl, the current jet pattern
and associated storm track is deflected well to our north which will
provide us with a prolonged glimpse of late spring. Widespread low
to mid 80s, and even some upper 80s, is possible today and Monday
which is well above climatological averages. The aforementioned
front will make its into north fl Monday night before stalling and
quickly washing out. Expect only a slight improvement on
humidity, with temps a few degrees cooler across the nature
coast before quickly warming back up.

Similar to the discussion yesterday afternoon, fog (both land and
sea) will be the main weather concern through the short term period.

Moisture trapped beneath the low level subsidence inversion will
promote the development of early morning fog and low stratus Monday
morning, especially where surface winds lighten up. Sea fog is also
likely to develop across the waters by this evening into tomorrow as
this will be the best southerly advection of moisture across the
relatively cooler gulf waters.

Long term (Monday night through next Sunday)...

the center of a stout mid level ridge meandering north of
hispaniola and east of the bahamas sprawls across fl and the
adjacent gulf of mexico waters. A frontal boundary along
the northern gulf coast lifts north Tue as atlantic high
pressure ridges across fl to the central gulf of mexico for
most of the period. Then late in the weekend the ridge
begins to shift away from fl as a cold front approaches.

Warm and generally stable conditions prevail. Lower level
southwesterly to southeasterly flow will provide enough moisture for
slight chance to chance showers most days. In addition the moisture
will keep the air mass on the humid side for feb. Temperatures run
above normal and may come close to a few record values.

Fire weather...

high pressure will dominate our weather pattern. South to
southeast winds will be gusty at times in the afternoon
along with patchy fog overnight into the early morning
hours. Only a slight chance of showers each afternoon with
no significant amounts of rain expected. Otherwise, rh will
remain well above critical levels through the next 7 days
and preclude any fire weather concerns.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 69 80 67 82 10 20 20 20
fmy 70 83 69 84 10 20 10 10
gif 67 84 66 83 0 20 20 30
srq 68 80 67 80 10 10 10 20
bkv 67 83 63 82 10 30 20 30
spg 68 79 67 80 10 20 20 20

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Update aviation marine... 69 close
prev discussion... 42 norman & 09 rude
upper air... 19 hurt
decision support... 11 mckaughan


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL 29 mi86 min S 1.9 G 6 83°F 1016.1 hPa
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 45 mi86 min S 8.9 G 9.9 73°F 1016.9 hPa
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 47 mi32 min SE 8.9 G 9.9
MCYF1 48 mi38 min 73°F

Wind History for TPA Cruise Terminal 2, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brooksville-Tampa Bay Regional Airport, FL17 mi27 minS 410.00 miFair66°F63°F90%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from BKV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE5SE4SE5S9S12S12SW11S10
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1 day agoS3CalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmS3S8SW11SW11SW10W14W13W12
G19
W13W9SW8SW5SW5CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmSE5S6SW6SW7W10W7W11W8SW6W5W5W3CalmCalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for Chassahowitzka, Chassahowitzka River, Florida (2)
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Chassahowitzka
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:49 AM EST     0.48 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:24 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:56 AM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:51 PM EST     0.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:21 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 11:49 PM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.40.40.50.50.40.30.20.1-0-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.10.10.30.40.50.50.40.30.30.20.2

Tide / Current Tables for Chassahowitzka, Chassahowitzka River, Florida
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Chassahowitzka
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:59 AM EST     0.71 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:24 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:15 PM EST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:58 PM EST     0.18 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:21 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:27 PM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.50.60.70.70.70.60.50.40.30.20.1000.10.10.20.20.20.20.10.10.10.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.