Sunday, September23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fern Park, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 7:21PM Sunday September 23, 2018 7:51 AM EDT (11:51 UTC) Moonrise 5:52PMMoonset 4:47AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 341 Am Edt Sun Sep 23 2018
Today..East winds 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 10 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 10 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 5 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..South winds 5 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 341 Am Edt Sun Sep 23 2018
Synopsis..High pressure will remain north of the area through much of the week. This will maintain a gentle to moderate onshore breeze across the waters. A northeast swell will keep seas elevated 3 to 5 feet through early this week.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Saturday, september 22nd. 41 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 26 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 9 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fern Park, FL
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location: 28.63, -81.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 230740
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
340 am edt Sun sep 23 2018

Discussion
Today-tonight... Band of deeper moisture and low level convergence in
the onshore flow will continue to generate scattered showers and
possibly a few storms over the coastal waters through the morning
hours. Hrrr local WRF concentrate any onshore moving showers and
isolated storms across brevard county and the treasure coast, with
any persistent showers or storms having the potential to produce
localized totals around 1-2 inches this morning. Into the afternoon
coastal showers and storms should weaken, with greatest rain chances
(up to 40-50 percent) shifting inland along and ahead of the east
coast sea breeze. Skies will range from partly to mostly cloudy
today, with highs in the upper 80s along the coast to around 90
degrees over the far interior.

An area of drier air building in from the east may initially keep
rain chances out of the forecast this evening. However after
midnight another surge in low level moisture in the easterly flow
will again produce a slight chance for onshore moving showers
along the coast overnight. Lows will range from the low to mid 70s
for most locations.

Monday... Onshore flow will persist and the GFS still shows a slight
low level wind surge with a band of enhanced moisture over the
coastal waters moving ashore and inland. This moisture band is
evident on satellite and there isn't much deep convection associated
with it. However, as the moisture convergence reaches the local
area, temps aloft will be cooler compared to where the band is at
now. Expect some flare up of convection over the coastal waters
early in the morning and inland with daytime heating. MOS pops,
which have been too high of late, are 40-50% and will trend them
down to 40% which is still above climo for late september.

Tuesday-Saturday... Little change from the pattern that has been
previously advertised. Low pressure currently south of bermuda is
still shown moving west beneath atlantic ridge and then curving
north as it approaches the eastern seaboard, while gradually
weakening into an inverted trough. A weak southern extension of the
low trough may affect the local area on Tue and keep moisture at or
above normal with pops 30-40%.

The models still show an overall moisture decrease wed-sat as a mid
level high pressure ridge builds over the region. The GFS shows
ribbons of more moist and drier air embedded in a southeast east
wind flow, so will stay close to MOS and climo with pops no greater
than 30% by late week.

Little change in temperatures is indicated. The onshore flow will
continue to keep min temps mostly in the mid 70s with a few upper
70s along the coast. High temps will be a few degrees above normal,
mostly in the upper 80s along the coast and lower 90s inland.

Aviation Tempo ifr MVFR conditions will be possible with
scattered onshore moving showers and isolated storms, mainly across
coastal TAF sites from ktix-ksua this morning. Greatest rain chances
then shift inland into the afternoon, with isolated to scattered
showers and storms potentially producing additional cig vis
reductions for inland TAF sites. This activity should shift into
west central florida into the evening, with only a slight chance for
onshore moving showers along the coast past midnight.

Marine
Today-tonight... Ridge north of the area will maintain an easterly
flow across the waters, with speeds around 10 knots. Swells will
keep seas up to 5 feet offshore, while nearshore seas will range
from 3-4 feet.

Monday-Thursday... East flow will persist on mon, likely at 10-15
knots as a weak surge pushes across the waters. A 40% coverage of
showers with a slight chance of storms is indicated. The pressure
gradient should weaken Tue as a weak inverted trough moves across
the waters. On wed, the winds will become southeast-south, then
southeast-east on Thu with speeds continuing around 10 knots. Drying
should decrease the coverage of showers storms. Seas will continue
3-5 feet mon-tue as a northeast swell persists, then become 3-4 feet
wed-thu.

Climate
Melbourne tied its record warm low for Sat sep 22nd (80 degrees
previously set in 2009).

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 87 76 88 76 20 20 40 20
mco 90 75 91 76 40 10 40 10
mlb 89 79 89 76 40 20 40 20
vrb 88 76 89 74 40 20 40 20
lee 91 75 92 75 50 10 40 10
sfb 89 75 91 75 40 10 40 10
orl 90 76 91 76 40 10 40 10
fpr 88 74 89 74 40 20 40 20

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Short term... Weitlich
long term... .Lascody


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 43 mi34 min 81°F 85°F1016.9 hPa
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 46 mi52 min 85°F3 ft
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 62 mi32 min E 9.7 G 16 82°F 1015.6 hPa72°F
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 71 mi67 min W 1 73°F 1017 hPa71°F

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Orlando Executive Airport, FL6 mi59 minENE 510.00 miFair77°F73°F90%1015.5 hPa
Orlando / Sanford Airport, FL12 mi59 minENE 410.00 miFair74°F71°F91%1015.2 hPa
Orlando International Airport, FL14 mi59 minENE 510.00 miA Few Clouds77°F73°F90%1015.1 hPa
Kissimmee Gateway Airport, FL24 mi56 minNE 310.00 miFair76°F73°F94%1015.8 hPa

Wind History from ORL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6N8NE7NE7E11E12E8NE10E14
G21
E13E11E11E7E6E5NE5NE3NE4NE3NE4S3CalmN4NE5
1 day agoNE4E5NE6E8NE7NE12NE8E14
G18
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G19
E12E15E8E10E8E5E5E4CalmCalmNE4N3N4N5N5
2 days agoN4NE5NE4CalmCalmE5NE6E14NE10E14NE7NE9E11E8E4NE3E4E3CalmE4E6E4E3N4

Tide / Current Tables for Titusville, Indian River, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Ponce De Leon Inlet South, Florida (sub)
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.