Sunrise 6:44 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 1:33 AM   Moonset 12:15 PM

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GMZ330 Matagorda Bay- 247 Pm Cdt Wed May 1 2024
.small craft should exercise caution - .
Tonight - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to around 15 knots late. Bay waters choppy, becoming slightly choppy late. A chance of Thunderstorms.Thursday - Southeast winds around 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then diminishing to around 15 knots late. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming choppy in the late morning and early afternoon, then becoming slightly choppy late. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Friday - Southeast winds around 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots late. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming choppy late. Friday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to around 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy, becoming slightly choppy after midnight. Saturday - Southeast winds around 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming choppy in the afternoon. Saturday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to around 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy, becoming slightly choppy after midnight. Sunday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Sunday night - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy. Monday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Monday night - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 247 Pm Cdt Wed May 1 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
winds remain above caution thresholds this evening, and may flirt with advisory levels on Thursday. Shower and Thunderstorm chances begin to increase today and persist through the rest of the work week, mainly for the galveston bay area and its adjacent waters. Although the strongest storms are expected to remain inland, an isolated stronger storm or two cannot be fully ruled out.

FXUS64 KCRP 012057 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX Issued by National Weather Service Melbourne FL 357 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Current through Thursday night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Southeast surface winds have promoted increasing moisture across the region with afternoon dew points observed in the low to mid 70s.
Convection has been slow to initialize this afternoon with only a few light radar returns across northern portions of the CWA Early afternoon CAM guidance continues to suggest scattered to possibly numerous showers and storms developing this afternoon into the evening. Of note, guidance has shifted activity more northward than morning model runs and greatest focus of initialization now resides along the north central CWA border, generally after 21Z. SPC Mesoanalysis tools continue to suggest a favorable environment for strong to severe storms with surface based CAPE values between 3,500- 4,000 J/kg and DCAPE values greater than 1,000 J/kg. However, the threat continues to remain conditional with models continuing to indicate a warm layer between 850-700mb. Of note, SPC has included a 2% probability of a tornado north of a line from La Salle to Aransas counties where effective layer STP values are greater than 2. In addition, strong to severe storms developing this evening will be capable of strong to damaging wind gusts and frequent cloud to ground lightning. There is a low risk of severe hail. Most convection is forecast to move north and west of the local CWA after 0Z with a few hints of a lingering storm across portions of Webb county into late evening.

Overnight, guidance has hinted at the potential for fog development across the coastal waters, advecting into the Coastal Plains. Any fog development is forecast to lift through sunrise. Into the afternoon, enough low level moisture remains in place on Thursday to support widely isolated showers and lightning storms during the afternoon (PoPs ~20%). High temperatures range the low to mid 90s across much of Brush country and the Rio Grande Plains. Temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 80s along the Coastal Plains and eastward.

LONG TERM
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A series of mid level shortwaves pass overhead through the period.
Model soundings indicate a dry mid layer generally persisting into early next week with limited moisture around 850mb. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through the period with any mention of precip limited to the Rio Grande Plains Friday and Saturday afternoon (PoP ~ 20%). Temperatures widely ranging the 90s across Brush country and the Rio Grande Plains late this week, warm to 100 degrees by Monday. Along the coastal plains and eastward, highs in the mid 80s to low 90s follow a gradual warming trend each afternoon.



AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

MVFR CIGs continue at the TAF sites though some improvement to CIGs is expected as cloud cover begins to thin from ALI to CRP and VCT. Isolated SHRA/TSRA are forecast to begin in the next few hours, delayed some by lingering clouds early this afternoon.
TEMPOs/AMDs may be needed as any TS approach the sites, mainly from KCOT to KVCT. Breezy to gusty winds continue closer to the coast (around 15 kt with gusts near 25 kt).

Storms may linger after 09z and approach VCT closer to 12z Thu. If this scenario is realized, additional changes to the TAF will be necessary, but confidence remains low at this time.

MARINE
Issued at 353 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Small craft should exercise caution tonight for onshore winds of 15- 20 kts across the offshore waters. Onshore flow continues on Thursday, building seas to 4-6 ft. Seas gradually subside Thursday night through Friday as onshore flow falls to 8-12 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 75 87 76 89 / 10 10 0 0 Victoria 74 87 73 87 / 30 20 10 10 Laredo 76 95 75 98 / 20 10 0 20 Alice 74 90 74 92 / 20 20 0 10 Rockport 75 85 75 85 / 10 10 10 0 Cotulla 75 92 75 97 / 30 20 0 20 Kingsville 75 88 75 90 / 10 20 0 10 Navy Corpus 76 85 77 86 / 10 10 10 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ245- 342>347-442-443-447.

High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for TXZ345-442- 443-447.

GM...None.

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