Sunrise 6:49 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 9:57 PM   Moonset 7:20 AM

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GMZ330 Matagorda Bay- 958 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 25 2024
.small craft should exercise caution - .
Tonight - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Friday - South winds 15 to 25 knots. Bay waters choppy. Friday night - Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Bay waters choppy. Saturday - Southeast winds around 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots late. Bay waters choppy, becoming rough late. Saturday night - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Bay waters rough. Sunday - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to around 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters rough, becoming choppy in the afternoon. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday night - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to around 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters rough, becoming slightly choppy after midnight. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 958 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 25 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
onshore winds will continue to strengthen and seas build overnight. They will remain elevated for the next several days and small craft advisories will likely remain in effect. Rainfall chances increase on Sunday, with scattered showers and storms persisting into Monday. Winds become lighter heading into the early part of next week.

FXUS64 KCRP 260333 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1033 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Key Messages:

- High risk of rip currents this afternoon through Friday

- Wind Advisory conditions possible Friday

- Isolated thunderstorms possible over the northern Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads Friday

There were minor changes made to the forecast. Due to obs reporting higher winds, seas reporting heights around 4 feet and 7 second periods per Buoy 42019 around , along with the influence of the full moon the rip current risk was elevated to a High risk for the rest of today through tomorrow. Erring on the side of caution due to the fact wave heights are expected to increase overnight tonight and winds are expected to persist through tomorrow.

With the presence of increased onshore flow due to the upper level disturbance moving across the southwestern US and a tightening pressure gradient, Wind Advisory conditions will be possible tomorrow. Models have been on a down trend from previous runs with the 13Z run of the NBM ensemble showing lower probabilities. They do however predict wind gusts to still be borderline Wind Advisory criteria, therefore it's not completely out of the question. This will be reassessed later tonight in order to get a better gauge on the threat. Some energy associated with the upper level disturbance will move through the area and combine with above normal PWATS (1.7- 1.9 inches) which could allow for some isolated thunderstorms over the northern Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads Friday. The caveat to this will be higher CIN values which should limit chances.

Conditions will remain humid tonight with lows in the 70s expected.
High temperatures to the east will be in the mid 80s with mid 90s out west due to less cloud cover.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

- Medium to high chance of Wind Advisory conditions for portions of South Texas Saturday

- Very warm Saturday with highs near 100 degrees out west

- Low to medium rain/storm chances daily Sunday through Thursday

Latest medium range models still indicate a strong surface pressure gradient setting up over the area Saturday into Saturday night leading to a medium to high chance of Wind Advisory conditions. This is in response to a deep layer trough advancing from the Rockies into the Central Plains. As this trough lifts into the upper midwest on Sunday, a weak boundary will stall over Central Texas causing our pressure gradient to relax. There remains a low to medium (20-50%)
chance for showers/thunderstorm across our northern CWA on Sunday due to convergence along the boundary and lift associated with the tail end of the upper trough.

A nearly zonal flow aloft will bring a steady stream of s/w's over South Texas through the work week. This will combine with a persistent onshore flow and abundant moisture with PWATs in the 1.5 to 1.9 inch range (99th percentile) to bring daily low end chances for showers and thunderstorms. The main inhibitor is the lack of low level focus. The operational 06z ECMWF is currently an outlier with regards to a slightly deeper trough forming over the eastern CONUS Wed-Thu, bringing a boundary into the region and a potential for a large MCS to sweep through the area. The 12z ECMWF still brings an MCS into the area but is less amplified with upper trough. The rest of the guidance including the EPS, GEFS and GEPS ensemble forecasts maintain a more zonal flow. Will carry low chances for PoPs at this time and continue to monitor.

Temperatures will be very warm on Saturday as a dryline nears the area from the west. Highs are forecast to approach the upper 90s to around 100 degrees over portions of the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains, with maximums in the mid 80s across the east. Otherwise, expect highs to range from the low 80s to mid 90s through the end of the work week, with overnight lows generally in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

MVFR conditions have set in for all eastern sites. Western sites are likely to get to MVFR eventually, but later in the night. All sites improve back to VFR conditions. MVFR conditions begin to return at the end of this forecast period. Gusty southeast winds will persist through the period.

MARINE
Issued at 355 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Moderate to strong onshore flow will persist this afternoon into Friday, as an upper level disturbance approaches the southwestern United States. A persistent strong onshore can be expected through Sunday when Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely.
Winds become weak to moderate during the day Monday and will persist through the remainder of the period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible daily Sunday through Tuesday as a couple weak disturbances move over the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 86 74 86 74 / 10 0 10 0 Victoria 85 72 84 73 / 0 0 10 0 Laredo 95 74 95 74 / 0 10 10 0 Alice 90 73 90 73 / 0 0 10 0 Rockport 82 73 82 74 / 0 0 10 0 Cotulla 94 74 94 75 / 10 20 10 0 Kingsville 88 73 90 74 / 0 0 10 0 Navy Corpus 83 74 85 75 / 0 0 10 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for TXZ345-442-443- 447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ231-232.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ231- 232-236-237.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ250-255-270- 275.

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