Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Lavaca, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 5:55PM Thursday January 17, 2019 10:44 AM CST (16:44 UTC) Moonrise 2:39PMMoonset 3:33AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ330 Matagorda Bay-galveston Bay- 938 Am Cst Thu Jan 17 2019
This afternoon..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south after midnight. Bay waters smooth.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth becoming slightly choppy in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy becoming slightly choppy after midnight. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Saturday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters choppy becoming rough in the afternoon. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a slight chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east after midnight. Bay waters smooth.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 938 Am Cst Thu Jan 17 2019
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Light west to southwest winds will prevail this afternoon in the wake of a disturbance exiting to the east. Warmer air flowing over the cooler waters could produce areas of sea fog early Friday. The next cold front should push through the gulf waters Saturday morning ending the fog and rain chances but ushering in much stronger offshore winds for Saturday night and early Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Lavaca, TX
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location: 28.64, -96.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Corpus Christi, TX
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Fxus64 kcrp 171206 aaa
afdcrp
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service corpus christi tx
606 am cst Thu jan 17 2019

Discussion
Updated for the 12z aviation discussion.

Aviation
Lifr ifr conditions to continue through much of the morning. Drier
air moving in from the west should aid in lifting CIGS toVFR by
the afternoon, but tempo MVFR conditions will be possible through
18z-19z. Will expect low CIGS to build back into the region toward
and after 00z. Sounding profiles favor br fg development in
addition to the lowering CIGS down to ifr MVFR. West winds this
morning will gradually become more southerly at around 5 kts.

Previous discussion issued 440 am cst Thu jan 17 2019
short term (today through Friday)...

remnants of a weakening coastal trough will maintain isolated
showers across the gulf waters through the morning. Drier air will
move in from the west and gradually end rain chances through the
afternoon. This drier air should help lift clouds and may offer
some breaks for partly cloudy conditions in the afternoon. Warmer
temperatures are expected with highs in the low to mid 70s.

Slightly cooler conditions may exist along the coast where clouds
may take longer to lift.

For tonight, expect low level clouds to return with patchy to
areas of fog. Southerly flow will aide in warming overnight
temperatures into the mid to upper 50s. Should see sea fog across
the bays and nearshore waters where water temps are in the upper
50s while dewpoints rise into the low to mid 60s.

Onshore winds will strengthen and become breezy for most locations
Friday in response to deepening surface low pressure across the
southern high plains. This system will bring the next cold front
to the region just outside of the short term. The onshore flow
will return moisture and slight rain chances to the region. Warm
moderate southwest flow at h85 should help in warming temperatures
for Friday with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Despite this warm
flow typically creating a cap over the region, some weakening in
the cap along the sea breeze may allow for a few thunderstorms
inland.

Marine...

weak westerly wind today will gradually shift out of the south by
tonight. Isolated showers will be possible today, mainly across
the gulf waters, with rain chances diminishing for tonight. Winds
will strengthen to more moderate levels Friday ahead of the next
cold front. Isolated showers will return to the region Friday.

Marine conditions will quickly deteriorate Saturday morning as a
strong cold front pushes offshore and over the middle texas
coastal waters. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along
the front Saturday morning, with rain chances ending during the
late afternoon hours. Strong northwest winds, 25-30 knots, are
expected to pick up behind the front. Gusts near 40 knots will be
likely, especially over the offshore gulf waters. Small craft
advisories will be needed through late Sunday morning as winds
will continue to mix down. There will be a brief window Saturday
afternoon where gale conditions will be likely. Seas will be quick
to respond behind the front with seas ranging from 8-10 feet
through Sunday morning.

As high pressures settles in late Sunday, marine conditions will
improve. Onshore flow will resume Monday morning. Southeasterly
flow will strengthen early next weekend in response to another
approaching cold front, resulting in another period of sca
conditions.

Long term (Friday night through Thursday)...

Friday night kicks off a weekend of fairly active weather across
south texas. A strong mid-level trough will swing across the
state, sending a cold front through the region. Forcing along the
boundary, decent upper level divergence and moisture pooling ahead
of the front will lead to chances for showers and thunderstorms
Friday night into early Saturday morning. The greatest chances
will be across the northern coastal bend and victoria crossroads,
where instability (~800-100 j kg) and shear (40-50 knots) looks to
be the highest. Models are in fairly good agreement with the
front pushing offshore by 12z Saturday. Rain chances will quickly
taper off as drier air filters in behind the front.

We will start out the day on Saturday with temps in the upper 50s
to mid 60s. Temps will remain fairly steady throughout the day
behind the front. Northwest flow drier air behind the system will
allow for skies to clear Saturday afternoon. Clear skies will lead
to a chilly night across south texas as temps drop into the low
to mid 30s across the victoria crossroads and northern coastal
plains with temps in the low to mid 40s along the coast. Sunday
looks to be another cool day as temps will struggle to get out of
the 50s as high pressure settles in with temps dropping into the
mid 30s to mid 40s across the region once again Sunday night.

Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible for a brief period
Saturday afternoon across the western part of the CWA as relative
humidity values will drop into the mid 20s and winds stay elevated
across the region.

Onshore flow will resume early Monday morning, resulting in
warmer temps to kick off the work week. Another front will drop
into the region on Tuesday but does not look to be as strong as
the weekend cold front. Rain chances will also be limited as
moisture will be lacking ahead of the boundary.

Preliminary point temps pops
Corpus christi 73 60 76 57 64 10 10 20 40 20
victoria 73 55 74 53 59 10 10 20 60 20
laredo 72 59 79 55 67 0 10 20 10 10
alice 75 59 79 57 65 10 10 20 30 10
rockport 69 59 72 58 61 10 10 20 50 30
cotulla 73 56 77 52 65 0 10 10 30 10
kingsville 75 60 79 59 66 10 10 20 30 20
navy corpus 69 61 72 59 63 10 10 20 40 30

Crp watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... None.

Cb 85... Aviation


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VCAT2 0 mi57 min W 8.9 G 13 58°F 56°F1023 hPa
PCNT2 - 8773701 - Matagorda Bay; Port O'Connor, TX 17 mi63 min W 9.9 G 13 58°F 58°F1022.7 hPa
SDRT2 - 8773037 - Seadrift, TX 17 mi63 min WSW 7 G 8 58°F 59°F1023.5 hPa
MBET2 21 mi63 min NW 12 G 14 59°F 64°F1021.7 hPa
AWRT2 30 mi63 min W 9.9 G 12 60°F 57°F1023.4 hPa
EMAT2 37 mi57 min W 8 G 15 59°F 58°F1022.6 hPa
RCPT2 - 8774770 - Rockport, TX 49 mi63 min 59°F 1023.3 hPa

Wind History for Port OConnor, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Lavaca - Calhoun County Airport, TX4 mi50 minW 87.00 miOvercast60°F58°F92%1023.7 hPa
Palacios Municipal Airport, TX19 mi52 minW 1310.00 miOvercast62°F60°F93%1023.2 hPa
Victoria, Victoria Regional Airport, TX23 mi54 minW 87.00 miOvercast57°F55°F93%1023.4 hPa

Wind History from PKV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E11E9SE9E9SE7E4SE5SE5SE6S5S3SW4SW4SW7SW6W8W6W6W7W5W7W7W7
1 day agoN5N3NE6N3NE3E3CalmE5E8E6E5E7E5E6E4E6E7E6E8E6E8E6E10E9
2 days ago--N8N9--N7N8N4N3N3N4N3N5N3CalmN4N3CalmNE5NE5NE4NE6NE4NE6N7

Tide / Current Tables for Port Lavaca, Lavaca Causeway, Matagorda Bay, Texas
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Seadrift, San Antonio Bay, Texas
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Corpus Christi, TX (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Corpus Christi, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.