Sunrise 6:47 AM   Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 11:55 PM   Moonset 9:02 AM

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GMZ330 Matagorda Bay- 332 Pm Cdt Sun Apr 28 2024
.small craft should exercise caution - .
Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Monday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms until late afternoon. Monday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to around 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy, becoming slightly choppy after midnight. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening. Wednesday - Southeast winds around 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming choppy in the afternoon. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.Thursday - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy. Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Friday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Friday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 332 Pm Cdt Sun Apr 28 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
moderate to strong onshore winds and hazardous seas will continue through late tonight. Minor coastal flooding is expected in vulnerable locations at times of high tide. There is a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. Winds will gradually decrease late Sunday night into Monday, with lingering high seas keeping conditions hazardous through Monday. Generally moderate onshore flow will persist through the rest of the week.

FXUS64 KCRP 282344 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 644 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Key Messages:

▶ Low chances for Severe Thunderstorms tomorrow

As daytime heating diminishes tonight, so will rain chances across most of the area except for the Victoria Crossroads where medium to low rain chances will linger through midnight. As we head into tomorrow, conditions look less favorable for development due to the placement of the upper-level trough, however, PWAT values between 1.4-1.5" (around 75th percentile of climatology) and vorticity in the 700 and 850 mb levels will along with unstable atmosphere (SBCAPE 2,500-3,000 J/kg) will keep low chances of thunderstorms in the forecast. If a thunderstorm is able to develop, it will have the ability to become severe with damaging winds and hail as the primary hazards. Therefore, the Storm Prediction Center currently has all of South Texas under a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms tomorrow.

Despite winds weakening to under 20 knots this afternoon and expected to drop under 15 knots tonight and tomorrow, coastal flooding is expected to continue through tomorrow evening as swell heights and periods remain elevated. As of this afternoon, Buoy 42019 was reporting swell heights of over 9 feet and periods just a tick over 9 seconds. Due to observations and webcams from portions of the bays and waterways showing elevated water levels, added the bays to the coastal flood advisory for tonight and tomorrow. Similarly, the rip current risk will also remain high tonight through tomorrow due to the elevated swells and periods. Please use caution if entering the water.

Warm temperatures will continue tomorrow with much of South Texas in the mid to upper 80s while the Brush Country warms into the lower to mid 90s. Temperatures tonight and tomorrow night will remain mild with lows only dropping into the low to mid 70s.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Key Messages:

- Low chance of showers and thunderstorms expected this week

- Minor coastal flooding possible through midweek

Mid Term (Tuesday through Wednesday)...Not much has changed in the models since yesterday, with the idea of a warm, moist air mass (PWAT~1.50") that will stay over South Texas, and especially the Coastal Bend as sfc dewpoints hover around the lower 70s. So the main thing will be upper air pattern and the triggers to get something going. However, the 500 mb pattern is slightly ridged with small shortwave ripples in the flow. So a good(20-40%) chance for showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday afternoon. Although, the Low Res Ensemble Forecast brings the chance for rain up to 50% during the afternoon with the chance of >500J/kg CAPE&>-25 J/kg CIN&>30knots of bulk shear being 40%, the NBM numbers may be under doing it. Instability drops as we lose heating, so not expecting anything overnight, although a shower is possible (10% chance)
overnight and going into Wednesday morning. Wednesday, models would suggest that the flat ridge would begin to break down and allow for slight chance pops (15-20%) in the morning, and low chance (15-30%)
in the afternoon, especially in the Victoria Crossroads region.

Winds are expected diminish Monday, and remain steady on Tuesday, although it could get gusty in the western Brush Country Tuesday night as the lee trough in northern Mexico tightens up the pressure gradient. That relaxes the gradient by 12z/Wed only to have the gradient tighten back up again, but not for most of the forecast area. Gusts only look to be 25-30 mph, but it will be breezy Wednesday.

Extended (Wednesday night through Sunday)...Wednesday night into Sunday is expected to have isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with the PWAT around 1.5 or more (75th percentile for this time of year). So far nothing out of hand. Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue the threat for minor coastal flooding.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions currently across the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads will become predominately MVFR through the evening hours as clouds fill back into the area.
Clouds are expected to spread west with LRD and COT lowering to MVFR/IFR after midnight. All S TX TAF sites are expected to be a mix of IFR/MVFR after midnight with brief periods of LIFR possible due to CIGs . Patchy fog will also lead to periods of MVFR VSBYs, except for COT where the fog may become denser toward early Monday morning where VSBYs may drop to LIFR, as well. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR by mid to late Monday morning. Isolated to scattered showers may be possible across VCT overnight into Monday morning. VCT has the best chance of storms through Monday afternoon. However, confidence is low that storms will impact the TAF sites. Therefore, have left out a mention of convection for the latter part of the TAF period for now.

MARINE
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Winds are expected to weaken to 15-20 knots tonight and 10-15 knots tomorrow morning through tomorrow night. Despite winds weakening to under 20 knots, Small Craft Advisory conditions will remain in effect across the Gulf waters for seas of 7 feet or greater through tomorrow morning. Low to medium rain chances are expected to linger across the offshore waters through tomorrow night. There is a 15-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms daily across the waters through mid week. Winds Wednesday and Thursday will ramp up enough for small craft to exercise caution.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 74 87 74 87 / 20 30 30 40 Victoria 72 88 71 85 / 40 30 20 50 Laredo 74 94 74 94 / 0 30 10 20 Alice 73 91 73 90 / 10 40 20 40 Rockport 75 83 74 84 / 30 30 30 40 Cotulla 71 93 73 94 / 0 10 10 10 Kingsville 74 89 74 89 / 10 40 20 40 Navy Corpus 75 83 74 84 / 20 30 30 40

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ245-342>347- 442-443-447.

High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ345-442-443- 447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ250-255-270- 275.

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Port Lavaca
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Sun -- 05:29 AM CDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:47 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:01 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:43 PM CDT     1.37 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:00 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Lavaca, Matagorda Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Port O'Connor
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:54 AM CDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:47 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:01 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:07 PM CDT     1.21 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:59 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port O'Connor, Matagorda Bay, Texas, Tide feet

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