Sunrise 6:32 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 3:55 PM   Moonset 3:09 AM

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GMZ330 Matagorda Bay- 313 Am Cdt Sun May 19 2024
Today - East winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy.Tonight - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. Monday through Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 313 Am Cdt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
light to occasionally moderate east to southeast winds today will become southeast tonight and Monday, and this southeast flow will then persist and gradually strengthen for the remainder of the week. Caution flags might be needed for the increasing winds and building seas.

FXUS64 KCRP 190734 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 234 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Key Messages:

- A Elevated risk of heat related impacts from dangerous heat today and Monday across most of South Texas

Sfc and 500 mb ridges are over south Texas this morning with the axis of the sfc high along the Coastal Bend so that inland is getting the return flow off of the Gulf. This has pushed low level moisture into the region overnight, that has been trapped under the inversion. This moisture, evident on satellite (Nighttime Microphysics RGB product), has steadily moved inland coincident with the 90% Sfc RH isopleth on the RAP40 and HRRR this morning. The low clouds are around 1000 feet with VSBYs around 4-6 miles. This will continue until sunrise, and with some mixing and heating, the low clouds will lift as will the VSBY over South Texas.

For the rest of the day, with persistent south to southeast flow will continue with the high situated east along the Gulf Coast, and sfc high situated in West Texas/northern Mexico. This will set up a tight pressure gradient that will continue to pump warm, dry air up from the south. Coupled with the rising 500 mb heights, high temperatures will once again continue to range from around 90near the Coastal Bend to 100-105 in the Rio Grande Plains.

And then like a broken record, it looks like we will go through the same cycle, tonight and Monday. The only issue will be the winds will be a little stronger to the east as the sfc high begins to move more to the east, and the sfc low to the west strengthens. So will expect another night of low clouds and light fog. Monday high temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than today as the pattern stagnates and the heat builds up under the ridge.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Key Messages:

- Increasing risk of heat-related impacts next week

Heat continues to be the biggest concern for the upcoming week. An upper ridge and persistent onshore flow will keep temperatures and moisture increasing through the week, leading to dangerously high heat index values by the end of the week. While daily temperatures will continue to range from the low to mid 90s along the coast to around 105 over the Rio Grande Plains, increasing dewpoints through the week will lead to a Major to Extreme HeatRisk by the middle of the week. Heat index values will range from 110-114 across most of South Texas, with some locations reaching 115 or greater by Wednesday. Heat Advisories will be likely each day by the middle of the week, with Excessive Heat Warnings possible, especially by the end of the week.

There is very low chance of showers on Wednesday and Thursday as a shortwave passes over the area and a boundary stalls to the north.
At this time, none of the models are overly excited about rain chances and neither are the forecasters here--but we can try to keep some small hope alive.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected across the western sites tonight while the eastern sites drop to MVFR due to some patchy fog. With confidence on the denser fog developing and models backing out as well, increased tempo to MVFR conditions instead of IFR. All sites should improve to VFR tomorrow with light winds throughout this TAF cycle.

MARINE
Issued at 231 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Weak northeasterly flow veers back onshore today and persists through tonight increasing to moderate flow Monday. Moderate onshore flow will persist through the end of the week, with periods of strong onshore flow Wednesday and Thursday afternoon across the southern bays and nearshore waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 92 76 94 78 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 92 72 93 76 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 101 77 103 78 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 96 74 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 88 77 89 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 100 76 102 78 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 94 76 95 78 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 88 79 90 80 / 0 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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