Sunrise 6:43 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 11:52 PM   Moonset 8:58 AM

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GMZ350 Coastal Waters From Freeport To Matagorda Ship Channel Tx Out 20 Nm-coastal Waters From High Island To Freeport Tx Out 20 Nm- 332 Pm Cdt Sun Apr 28 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight cdt tonight - ..small craft should exercise caution through early Sunday morning - .
Tonight - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming south around 15 knots late. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Monday - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast around 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms until late afternoon, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late.Monday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening. Wednesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wednesday night - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.Thursday - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Thursday night - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet.Friday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Friday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 332 Pm Cdt Sun Apr 28 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
moderate to strong onshore winds and hazardous seas will continue through late tonight. Minor coastal flooding is expected in vulnerable locations at times of high tide. There is a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. Winds will gradually decrease late Sunday night into Monday, with lingering high seas keeping conditions hazardous through Monday. Generally moderate onshore flow will persist through the rest of the week.

FXUS64 KHGX 282105 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 405 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 405 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT

FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

Light showers are currently ongoing across portions of SE Texas this afternoon, with stronger/severe storms ongoing over portions of Northeast Texas. SPC's mesocale analysis depicts ample instability across SE Texas, with SFC CAPE values of 2500-4000 J/KG, 3km ML CAPE of 5-150 J/KG. MU LIs of -6 to -8, LCL heights of 500-1000m, and midlevel lapse rates of 6.5-7.5 DegC/km. Ample shear remains present throughout the region as well, with Effective Bulk shear around 40- 50 knots and 3km SRH of 150-250 m2s2. 3km EHI values range from 3-5, Supercell Composite values of 8-12, Sig Tor Parameter values of 1-2, and Large Hail Parameter values of 8-16. Enhanced Stretching Potential values of 1-2 are currently focused west of I-45 just north of the US-59 corridor right now, coinciding with higher VTP values of 2-4. Model consensus and current observations suggest isolated/scattered shower/thunderstorm development across SE Texas this afternoon, with a larger line/cluster of storms forming this evening over portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods along a frontal boundary. This complex of thunderstorms should move east/southeasterly overnight, pushing offshore Monday morning.

A Tornado Watch is in effect for areas north of the US-59 corridor until 9 PM Tonight. These discrete storms will be capable of producing all severe hazards, including damaging winds, large hail, and even a few tornadoes. Additionally, these storms will also be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, with some models suggesting the potential for training storms. A Flood Watch is currently in effect across the northern third of our CWA until 10 AM Monday. Rainfall totals will largely be up to 2" though isolated higher amounts of 3-5" or higher will be possible. Locations outside of the current watch areas will still be under a Marginal to Slight Risk of Severe Weather/Excessive rainfall tonight into Monday morning. Keep an eye on the forecast for additional updates, and be sure to have multiple ways of receiving warnings tonight.

The severe weather & heavy rainfall threat come to an end on Monday as this complex of thunderstorms pushes offshore. Isolated showers & storms will be possible Monday night/early Tuesday due to lingering moisture. Otherwise, expect much more benign weather with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s to lower 70s.

03

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 405 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

With an active west to southwest flow aloft, a series of disturbances will be moving across the area through much of this period. With precipitable water values remaining on the elevated side, a persistent onshore flow, and a stalling cold front, look for periods of showers and thunderstorms across the area for much of the week, generally higher inland (up north) and lower closer to the coast. Each day, expect high temperatures in the 80s and low temperatures in an upper 60s to lower 70s range. 42

AVIATION
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

VFR to MVFR CIGS and gusty south to southeasterly winds can be expected across SE Texas this afternoon. Light, isolated showers have begun to develop over the area, with thunderstorms becoming more likely later today. During the late afternoon/early evening, clusters of thunderstorms should develop along a frontal boundary near the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area. This complex of thunderstorms is expected to push east/southeasterly tonight, with CIGS dropping to MVFR/IFR levels. Some of these thunderstorms could become strong to severe at times. These showers and storms should push off offshore/east of the area Monday morning, with CIGs improving in it's wake.

03

MARINE
Issued at 405 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Moderate to strong onshore winds (still at around 20 knots this afternoon) and hazardous seas (10 feet at Buoy 42019 at 2 PM CDT)
will continue through late tonight. Minor coastal flooding is expected in vulnerable locations at times of high tide (mainly during the day today). There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms, with the best chances from this evening through Monday morning, and then again during the day on Tuesday (look for higher winds/seas/bays in and near any storms). Winds will gradually decrease late tonight into Monday, with lingering high seas keeping conditions hazardous through much of the day on Monday. Generally moderate onshore flow will persist through the rest of the upcoming week. 42

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 405 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A Flood Watch is in effect for portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods through 10AM CDT on Monday morning. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop and move through portions of Southeast Texas this afternoon into tonight. Some of these storms may become strong to severe and produce heavy rainfall (rainfall rates up to 2-2.5"/hr) that may lead to localized flooding especially in low-lying areas or areas with poor drainage.
Generally expecting widespread rainfall totals around 2", but pockets of 3-5+" inches will be possible especially if storms train over the same locations repeatedly. The bulk of the heavier rainfall looks to push out of the watch area by sunrise on Monday morning, so the Flood Watch may be cancelled a few hours early.

There are currently no River Flood Warnings in effect. The Trinity River at Moss Bluff (MBFT2) fell below minor flood stage a short while ago, so that River Flood Warning was cancelled. Additional rainfall is expected this afternoon and tonight with the greater confidence for higher rainfall totals along the Upper Trinity River.
As a result, we'll need to monitor observations and forecasts along this basin for impacts from the heavy rain and its subsequent runoff.

You can monitor current and forecast conditions at this weblink: water.weather.gov/ahps2/forecasts.php?wfo=HGX

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 70 86 68 84 / 60 10 10 30 Houston (IAH) 72 86 71 84 / 70 50 20 50 Galveston (GLS) 73 80 72 79 / 50 70 20 50

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Flood Watch through Monday morning for TXZ163-164-176>179-195- 196-198.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ214- 313-337-338-437>439.

Beach Hazards Statement until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until midnight CDT tonight for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for GMZ350-355.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from midnight CDT tonight through late tonight for GMZ350-355.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT Monday for GMZ370-375.

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Port O'Connor
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:54 AM CDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:47 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:01 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:07 PM CDT     1.21 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:59 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port O'Connor, Matagorda Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Pass Cavallo
Click for Map
Sun -- 06:47 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:01 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:49 AM CDT     1.66 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:59 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pass Cavallo, Texas, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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