Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 6:33 AM   Moonset 9:13 PM

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GMZ350 Coastal Waters From Freeport To Matagorda Ship Channel Tx Out 20 Nm-coastal Waters From High Island To Freeport Tx Out 20 Nm- 346 Pm Cdt Thu May 9 2024
Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northeast toward morning. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: southeast 4 feet at 7 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds. Hazy until early morning. Friday - Northeast winds around 15 knots, veering to east late. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: east 3 feet at 6 seconds. Hazy in the morning. Friday night - Northeast winds around 15 knots, rising to 15 to 20 knots late. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: east 3 feet at 4 seconds and southeast 3 feet at 7 seconds. Saturday - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Wave detail: east 4 feet at 6 seconds. Saturday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots, easing to around 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Wave detail: east 4 feet at 6 seconds. Sunday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Wave detail: east 4 feet at 5 seconds. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Sunday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Monday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Monday night - South winds around 10 knots. Seas around 3 feet. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 3 feet. Tuesday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas around 3 feet.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 346 Pm Cdt Thu May 9 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
a cold front will make its way into the upper texas coastal waters late tonight and early Friday morning. There may be some isolated showers and Thunderstorms ahead of it, but the vast majority of storms will dissipate further inland before reaching the waters. North and northeast winds in the wake of the front will swing back to the southeast by early Sunday as the front moves back inland as a warm front. Periods of showers and Thunderstorms can be expected Sunday and Monday.

FXUS64 KHGX 092354 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 654 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are developing over the central and north central portions of Texas ahead and along a cold front this afternoon. These storms are expected to continue east southeastward and make it into the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region later this evening into early tonight. Although the cap still remains fairly strong for much of Southeast Texas, it is expected to weaken later today. Forecast soundings still show CAPE values of over 4000 J/kg, in particular for areas north of I-10. In addition, they indicate SFC-6km shear values of 45-55 kts, steep mid level, and DCAPE values of over 1000 J/kg. PWs will increase to around 1.8 inches this evening and dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 70s. Overall, any storms that do make it into the aforementioned area has the potential to remain strong to severe and could result in large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out either.

One thing to note is the small potential for a few vort maxes to move across Southeast Texas early this evening, which could lead to locally driven, isolated storms...if they manage to overcome the cap.

SPC now has placed an Enhanced Risk (threat level 3 of 5) north of a line from Washington County into northern Liberty County. A Slight Risk (threat level 2 of 5) exists southward of there to roughly along the I-10 corridor and a Marginal Risk (threat level 1 of 5)
exists for the rest of the area except around Matagorda Bay.

Be prepared and have multiple ways of receiving warnings!

Storms are expected to have either dissipated or moved eastward and away from our region before midnight, ahead of the next cold frontal passage. The front is progged to reach the coastal areas during the late night hours. On Friday, tranquil but breezy conditions are expected as gusty north to northeast winds develops in the wake of the front. Slightly "cooler and drier" air will filter in across the area and result in partly cloudy skies and highs in the low to mid 80s over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region and in the mid to upper 80s elsewhere. The lows Friday night into early Saturday morning will be in the low to mid 60s over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region and in the upper 60s to low 70s elsewhere.

24

LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Though low levels will be drier on Saturday than they have been the past several days, we still anticipate some mid level moisture & cloud cover streaming overhead. Some of the deterministic models show some decent shortwave energy and lift passing across the southern parts of the area, so went ahead and included some low POPs in case we see some associated sprinkles or light rain.

Heading into Saturday night and Sunday, the remnant boundary in the Gulf will move back inland as a warm front. With it comes some deep Gulf moisture as PW's climb to around 2.2" across a good part of the region. A zone of low level speed convergence sets up and combined with additional passing upper impulses we anticipate increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage on Mother's Day.
Somewhat similar setup for Monday as mid-upper trof makes its way across the Southern Plains with a series of embedded vorts continuing to flow on its southern periphery. Wouldn't be surprised to see another 1-4" of rain across the area (highest I-10 northward) before all is said and done. And with the deep moisture and potential mesoscale boundaries/convergent zones you'd keep an eye out for potential localized higher totals. Grounds are already saturated from last weeks rain, and additional heavy rain falling in a shorter time period will be prone to quickly runoff.
So, it's a forecast worth watching this weekend.

With the passage of the mid-upper trof to the east, we'll see some drier condition on Tue with some subtle ridging. That, however, won't last too long. Ridging will slide to the east and we again transition to a messier wsw flow aloft as the next western trof takes shape, a continued onshore llvl flow off the Gulf, and eventually a slow moving front sagging closer to the area later next week. 47

AVIATION
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Haze continues to appear on recent surface observations as a result of smoke transport due to agricultural burning over portions of Central America. This should continue to prevail until the passage of a frontal boundary overnight. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to impact sites north of IAH through approximately 06Z, with some storms becoming strong to severe. A few strong wind gusts will be possible. While storm development near IAH can't be ruled out between around 04-06Z, storms will generally struggle to maintain strength along and south of the I-10 corridor. North winds develop behind the passing boundary overnight, reaching 10-15 knots tomorrow afternoon. Some gusts to 20 knots are expected at times tomorrow.

Cady

MARINE
Issued at 354 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

A cold front will make its way into the upper Texas coastal waters late tonight and early Friday morning. There may be some isolated showers and thunderstorms ahead of it, but the vast majority of storms will dissipate further inland before reaching the waters.
Areas of haze/fog should improve after the wind shift. North and northeast winds in the wake of the front will swing back to the southeast by early Sunday as the front moves back inland as a warm front. Periods of showers and thunderstorms can be expected Sunday and Monday. 47

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 70 83 65 82 / 40 0 10 10 Houston (IAH) 72 88 68 84 / 30 10 10 20 Galveston (GLS) 75 84 73 80 / 10 0 0 20

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 AM CDT Friday for GMZ370-375.

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Port O'Connor
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Thu -- 12:53 AM CDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:38 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:35 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:19 PM CDT     1.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:05 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:14 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port O'Connor, Matagorda Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Pass Cavallo
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Thu -- 06:38 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:36 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:44 AM CDT     1.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:05 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:14 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:36 PM CDT     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pass Cavallo, Texas, Tide feet

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