Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Matagorda, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 8:27PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 2:13 AM CDT (07:13 UTC) Moonrise 10:19AMMoonset 11:21PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ350 Coastal Waters From Freeport To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 20 Nm-coastal Waters From High Island To Freeport Out 20 Nm- 336 Pm Cdt Tue Jun 27 2017
.small craft should exercise caution...
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 336 Pm Cdt Tue Jun 27 2017
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. A developing coastal trough will tighten the pressure gradient and onshore winds are expected strengthen through tonight. Tide levels will also likely increase and some minor coastal flooding will be possible.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Matagorda, TX
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location: 28.69, -95.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 280456
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
1156 pm cdt Tue jun 27 2017

Aviation
Ongoing marine convection is well offshore, so despite insistence
of short range models, will delay onset of showers. Wind obs do
show coastal convergence should set up near shore, so will
continue to bring in potential for showers late tonight near the
coast as well as the emergence of some MVFR ceilings. However,
trend in hrrr and ttu WRF does keep iah a bit drier, so step back
down to vcsh there.

Coastward, have to make the call on prob30 to
tempo prevailing nothing. Don't have the confidence in hitting
with tempo or prevailing at this point - not so much the existence
of rain, but in the precise timing. So for now will step back to
vcs.VFR conditions should return around mid-day. By late
afternoon or early evening, the coastal trough should draw far
enough offshore and take convection with it for most to dry out.

Luchs

Prev discussion issued 903 pm cdt Tue jun 27 2017
discussion...

compared to the last couple of nights, the radar this evening is,
well, quiet. Most of the activity is out off the upper texas
coast in the gulf. Aloft water vapor imagery shows a short wave
shearing out over the area within a mean weakness in the upper
level flow with ridging over the baja peninsula. At the surface,
there is a weak pressure trough or coastal trough which has been
driving the shower activity in the gulf. Hrrr rap trends show this
activity increasing through the overnight hours and then pushing
inland. Wpc has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for
tomorrow morning due to the possibility of bands of storms pushing
inland. Cams show most of the activity in the gulf and then
pushing east towards la through the day. Forecast was updated for
ongoing trends which show little activity but then pops increase
through the night in response to developing showers storms with
the coastal trough. Most of the activity will remain south of i-10
but where stronger storms do form and with some training, there
is the potential for high rainfall rates hence the excessive
rainfall outlook. The 00z crp lch soundings still show 2 inches of
precipitable water, certainly enough for heavy rainfall. Outflows
coming from the storms will likely drive convection through the
morning hours into the afternoon. As has been the case lately,
convection will also likely be able to support a funnel cloud or
two and perhaps a waterspout for the coastal areas.

Overpeck
prev discussion... Issued 645 pm cdt Tue jun 27 2017
aviation...

forecast period opens with a fairly straightforward big picture -
slowly diminishing storms for the northern sites, while the worked
over south stays drier. However, timing the specifics for cll,
uts, and cxo into this evening and how quickly things wind down
will be tricky, and may (but hopefully will not) require
amendments.

Otherwise, the next challenge will be the position of a potential
coastal trough late tonight into tomorrow for development of
showers and storms tomorrow. Kept continuity with the previous
forecast and brought vcsh as far north as iah, but latest hrrr and
rap have been playing coy about penetration of rain that far
inland. Any further offshore, and iah and perhaps even sgr and
hou will be drier. Otherwise, tried to highlight a short window
for best chances of storms before this trough gets dragged east
and activity winds down for the day.

Luchs
prev discussion... Issued 346 pm cdt Tue jun 27 2017
discussion...

scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to spread across the
region this afternoon, with isolated amounts of nearly 2 to 2.5
inches having fallen across parts of the houston metro so far
today. Expect this activity to linger through the evening hours,
weakening but not entirely dissipating as a shortwave trough over
south central texas translates across the region. A coastal low
along the middle and lower texas coast is also expected to nudge
into the northwest gulf as a result of the passage of this
feature, but short term guidance differs somewhat on the exact
trajectory this low will take... Which will have a dramatic impact
on rain chances for the region.

Speed convergence along the trough axis is expected to result in
new development along the coastal trough overnight (aided by lift
from the approaching shortwave), with model solutions ranging from
scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the bottom two tiers
of counties with a more northeast trajectory to a dry overnight
forecast with a more easterly trajectory. Have trended with a more
northeast trajectory given greater consensus from 12z guidance
and have maintained the mention of thunderstorms for areas south
of a columbus to cleveland line during the overnight period in the
forecast but confidence is low in just how far inland storms will
extend. What is particularly concerning about the northeast
trajectory is a few solutions (rap hrrr) have shown fairly
consistent run-to-run solutions highlighting a swath of greater
than 3 inch amounts across parts of galveston, brazoria, chambers,
and possibly southeastern harris counties early to late morning
Wednesday. These kinds of amounts exceed flash flood guidance, but
because of concerns about the actual trajectory of the trough
have held off on a flash flood watch for now. However, residents
are advised to check road conditions before beginning their
morning commute should the more pessimistic rap hrrr solution
materialize.

Elevated atmospheric moisture levels (precipitable water values in
excess of 1.8-2 inches) and daytime heating will allow
thunderstorm activity to develop again inland on Wednesday, with
daytime inland thunderstorms and nighttime marine thunderstorms
persisting on Thursday and Friday. Highs through the end of the
week are expected to gradually warm from the mid to upper 80s
Wednesday to upper 80s to low 90s by Friday. Thunderstorms may
skirt the northern counties of southeast texas Friday night as an
upper trough rotates across the great plains, but dry and hot
conditions are expected this weekend as upper ridging builds in
from the west. A passing upper level disturbance may weaken the
ridge enough to allow for a few showers (or maybe even a storm)
to develop early next week... With heat index values in the
100-105 degree range persisting this weekend into the beginning of
next week.

Huffman
marine...

a coastal trough will develop tonight and east winds will
strengthen. The trough will help to focus numerous showers and
thunderstorms over the coastal waters tonight and mariners in
small craft should exercise caution tonight. Winds will diminish
on Wednesday as the coastal trough moves east. The pressure
gradient will tighten Wednesday night through Friday as low
pressure deepens in the lee of the rockies and moves across the
central plains on Thursday. Onshore winds will persist through the
weekend but speeds will decrease as the gradient relaxes.

Tides will remain elevated through Wednesday as e-se winds
prevail. Some minor coastal flooding will be possible on the
bolivar peninsula. Rip currents could strengthen due to the strong
and persistent onshore flow.

43

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 71 90 74 91 77 10 30 10 30 10
houston (iah) 73 88 75 89 78 30 50 30 60 20
galveston (gls) 78 85 79 87 81 70 70 50 70 40

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft should exercise caution until 5 am cdt Wednesday for
the following zones: coastal waters from freeport to the
matagorda ship channel out 20 nm... Coastal waters from high
island to freeport out 20 nm... Waters from freeport to the
matagorda ship channel from 20 to 60 nm... Waters from high
island to freeport from 20 to 60 nm.

Discussion... 39
aviation marine... 25


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EMAT2 2 mi43 min E 8.9 G 14 80°F 83°F1011.9 hPa
SGNT2 15 mi43 min SE 13 G 15 80°F 83°F1011.9 hPa
KBQX 29 mi38 min SE 12 81°F 81°F
MBET2 30 mi43 min SSE 15 G 17 81°F
PCNT2 - 8773701 - Matagorda Bay; Port O'Connor, TX 32 mi43 min ESE 13 G 17 81°F 1012 hPa
FCGT2 - 8772447 - USCG Freeport, TX 35 mi43 min E 8.9 G 16 80°F 84°F1013.5 hPa
VCAT2 39 mi43 min ESE 11 G 14 81°F 83°F1012.3 hPa
KBBF 44 mi38 min SSE 14 81°F 73°F
LUIT2 48 mi43 min ESE 11 G 16 80°F
SDRT2 - 8773037 - Seadrift, TX 48 mi43 min N 1.9 G 2.9 77°F 84°F1012.7 hPa

Wind History for Port OConnor, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay City, Bay City Municipal Airport, TX20 mi38 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F73°F97%1013.2 hPa
Palacios Municipal Airport, TX20 mi20 minENE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F73°F97%1012.8 hPa

Wind History from BYY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3CalmNE4E3E4E6CalmE4E4E5E7E6SE6E8E5SE6E4CalmNE3NE3NE3E4CalmCalm
1 day agoNE6SW3CalmNE3NE3N3NE4NE7NE4NE7E3W5CalmE5NE7
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2 days agoW9N6NE3CalmNW3N4N3NE3E3E3SE9NE7E5NE6E8E6E8SE5SE4E3E3E3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Port O'Connor, Matagorda Bay, Texas
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Port O'Connor
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:17 AM CDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:30 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:21 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:05 PM CDT     0.46 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:27 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.100.10.20.30.40.40.50.50.40.40.40.40.40.30.30.20.2

Tide / Current Tables for Pass Cavallo, Texas
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Pass Cavallo
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:30 AM CDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:30 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:42 AM CDT     1.36 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:21 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:44 PM CDT     0.84 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:51 PM CDT     0.97 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:26 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.2-0.2-0.10.10.30.50.811.21.31.41.21.10.90.90.80.90.90.9110.90.70.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.