Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Palacios, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 7:38PM Thursday March 23, 2017 11:13 PM CDT (04:13 UTC) Moonrise 3:21AMMoonset 2:28PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ330 Matagorda Bay-galveston Bay- 1103 Pm Cdt Thu Mar 23 2017
.small craft should exercise caution...
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy becoming slightly choppy after midnight. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming smooth in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth becoming slightly choppy in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 1103 Pm Cdt Thu Mar 23 2017
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Lowering inland pressures in association with an approaching cold front has tightened the onshore pressure gradient. This will maintain strong southerlies through Friday. This front will approach the coastal waters Saturday but is forecast to stall inland. The highest chances for rain and storms to occur over galveston bay and more eastern gulf waters Friday evening into early Saturday morning. Weaker onshore winds will prevail through the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palacios, TX
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location: 28.69, -96.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 240239
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston/galveston tx
939 pm cdt Thu mar 23 2017

Discussion
Mid evening temperatures across southeast texas are in the upper 60s
to lower 70s. So far today, galveston's low temperature has been 71
degrees. If their temperature remains above 70 degrees for the rest
of the evening, they will tie their march 23rd record high minimum
temperature of 71 degrees set in 1907. Galveston's average temperature
for the month (68.7 degrees through the 22nd) ranks as the 4th warmest
period on record (dating back to 1875). The warmest march 1-22 period
of 69.5 degrees happened back in 1907.

Showers and thunderstorms have developed this evening across the texas
panhandle area in association with an approaching storm system. Latest
available models indicate little change in the timing of tomorrow's
activity for our area as described in previous discussions below. 42

Prev discussion /issued 744 pm cdt Thu mar 23 2017/
aviation...

late day southern forecast area cumulus field now filling in to
either MVFR (near coast) to low endVFR ceilings. This trend of
early eveningVFR decks filling in and lowering to MVFR through
the late evening will accompany persistent moderate southerlies.

Stronger onshore flow will likely maintain an overnight MVFR deck
and preclude fog development. An approaching cold frontal boundary
tomorrow will increase scattered early afternoon shower activity
leading to mid to late afternoon northwestern-to-southeastern
advancing thunderstorm behavior. The question of how strong the
mid-level cap will hold across the middle and southern forecast
area will ultimately determine any late day into early Friday
evening tsra development/areal coverage. 31
prev discussion... /issued 403 pm cdt Thu mar 23 2017/
discussion...

temperatures this afternoon are back in the mid 80s or about 10
degrees above normal for this time of year. Dewpoints have mixed
out heavily from the 60s to the 40s in a few areas with gusty
southerly winds. Upper level analysis has upper level ridging over
much of texas as expected with the strong upper level trough over
the southern rockies. Water vapor imagery and visible for that
matter show cirrus moving over the area with anticyclonic
curvature due to the ridge.

Tonight southerly winds will remain around 10-15 mph so do not
expect any fog to develop. LLJ of 50kts at 850mb should allow for
at least some mixing and sustain higher winds overnight. Winds of
40-50kts at 850mb will continue tomorrow and veer to the SW during
the day. Look for surface winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts over 30
mph at times.

By 18z Friday a fairly stacked low will move into the tx/ok
panhandles with a surface dryline extending from central oklahoma
into central texas. Dryline will act more like a pacific front
which by Saturday may reach the upper texas coast before stalling.

The boundary however will be the main focus for linear convection
in the form of a broken squall line or qlcs. All high resolution
model guidance have fairly consistent timing with the line of
storms pushing into SE texas after 17-18z Friday and push across
through 03-05z Saturday (12pm Fri to 12am sat). Line of storms
could affect houston during the evening hours from 21z to 01z
(4pm to 8pm Friday). Main hazards will be damaging straight line
winds and lightning, brief tornado along the line and then hail.

Overall there is good confidence in some type of line of storms
moving through the area, but low confidence in the
intensity/severity. Synoptic models still show a good trailing
vorticity MAX moving across the northern half of the area from 21z
Friday to 00z Saturday. The vorticity does become channelized
minimizing lift from any PVA farther south of i-10. Greatest
height falls and cooling aloft should be sticks to north of the
area but eventually pushes south by 06z Saturday. By this time all
strong PVA shifts over arkansas/louisiana. What this means is
that the cap may be slow to erode over SE texas and by the time it
does, there may not be any forcing for convection. Instability is
another question as models try to generate 1000-2000 j/kg of cape
but there is some concern that the quality of moisture may not
support surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s or enough to
support the instability. Low level moisture mixed out quite a bit
today and even dewpoints in the gulf are in the mid 60s. The
severe weather threat comes from strong deep layer shear, 50-60kts
of 0-6km shear and low level shear of 20 knots. This will be more
than enough to organize severe convection like a qlcs with a
possible mesovortex along the line. Overall thinking is that the
cap will hold along the coast but remain weaker north of houston.

Most likely areas for severe weather will be north of a brenham
to cleveland line. This should be where severe threat will be
greatest. Farther north instability will be weaker since moisture
return may not be quite as strong as progged. Regardless, there
are still several issues that make forecasting the threat for
severe weather challenging.

Another trough is expected to push through north texas late
Sunday into Monday. There may be a few storms for extreme northern
areas of the forecast area but think the main threat for any
severe weather will be northeast of the area towards the arklatex
and louisiana. Lastly the active pattern continues for the middle
of next week. Models differ on timing but looks like
Wednesday/Thursday will be another time frame to monitor for
thunderstorm activity. 39
marine...

not a lot of change with the previous thinking with regard to the
upcoming forecast. Light/moderate onshore winds prevailing so
far this afternoon, but will be expecting increased winds (and
then seas) for later tonight in response to the tightening
gradient (via the deepening low moving into the western central
plains). An scec has already been issued for offshore waters for
this afternoon... And have gone a- head and posted caution/advisory
flags for tonight/early tomorrow.

Still keeping with a slight w/nw wind shift for early Sat morning
in the wake of the weak front for mainly the bays/nearshore
waters, but this will be short-lived as onshore winds return
areawide later that afternoon. These winds should pick up once
again late Sun as another system moving off the rockies begins to
develop over the plains. Not sure we will see as much gradient
tightening with this system compared to the one tomorrow, but
cannot rule out scec for this time frame at this time (sun/sun
night). The continuation of this v progressive pattern into next
week could bring more active weather/elevated wind and seas next
tues night-wed night. 41

Preliminary point temps/pops
College station (cll) 66 79 57 81 58 / 10 80 30 10 10
houston (iah) 68 81 65 83 60 / 10 50 60 10 10
galveston (gls) 70 79 71 80 68 / 10 20 50 20 10

Hgx watches/warnings/advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft should exercise caution through Friday afternoon for
the following zones: galveston bay... Matagorda bay.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm cdt Friday for the following
zones: coastal waters from freeport to the matagorda ship
channel out 20 nm... Coastal waters from high island to
freeport out 20 nm... Waters from freeport to the matagorda
ship channel from 20 to 60 nm... Waters from high island to
freeport from 20 to 60 nm.

Small craft should exercise caution until 10 pm cdt this evening
for the following zones: waters from freeport to the
matagorda ship channel from 20 to 60 nm... Waters from high
island to freeport from 20 to 60 nm.

Discussion... 42
aviation/marine... 31


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VCAT2 12 mi44 min SE 18 G 21 73°F 76°F1016.1 hPa
PCNT2 - 8773701 - Matagorda Bay; Port O'Connor, TX 17 mi44 min SE 16 G 19 72°F 1016.2 hPa
MBET2 19 mi44 min S 17 G 20 72°F
EMAT2 25 mi44 min SE 15 G 19 73°F 75°F1016.4 hPa
SDRT2 - 8773037 - Seadrift, TX 26 mi44 min ESE 15 G 17 73°F 75°F1016.4 hPa
AWRT2 39 mi44 min SSE 14 G 19 73°F 76°F1016.1 hPa
SGNT2 41 mi44 min SE 16 G 20 72°F 75°F1017 hPa
KBQX 48 mi39 min SSE 18 G 25 77°F 77°F
MAXT2 - Mission-Aransas Reserve, TX 51 mi74 min 13 74°F 1016 hPa (+1.0)67°F

Wind History for Port OConnor, TX
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Palacios Municipal Airport, TX8 mi21 minSSE 15 G 2410.00 miFair72°F64°F79%1016.7 hPa
Port Lavaca - Calhoun County Airport, TX16 mi19 minSSE 11 G 1410.00 miFair70°F67°F91%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from PKV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE11SE17S14
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6
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CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS12
G18
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S12CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Port Lavaca, Lavaca Causeway, Matagorda Bay, Texas
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Port Lavaca
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:06 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:25 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:26 PM CDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:26 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:40 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:55 PM CDT     0.91 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.90.80.80.80.70.60.50.40.30.20.10.10.10.10.30.40.50.70.80.90.90.90.9

Tide / Current Tables for Port Lavaca, Matagorda Bay, Texas
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Port Lavaca
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:06 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:25 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:11 PM CDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:26 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:40 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:52 PM CDT     0.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.80.80.80.70.70.60.60.50.40.30.20.10.10.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.80.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.