Sunrise 6:38 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 11:29 AM   Moonset 12:46 AM

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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 1008 Am Edt Tue May 14 2024
.tornado watch 241 in effect until 1 pm edt this afternoon - .
This afternoon - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southwest 3 feet at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters choppy. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely early, then a chance of showers. Tonight - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: southwest 3 feet at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Wednesday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: southwest 3 feet at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters choppy. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Wednesday night - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming west around 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southwest 3 feet at 7 seconds and southwest 2 feet at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening. Thursday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 7 seconds and west 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Thursday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 7 seconds and west 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Friday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Saturday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 1008 Am Edt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis - Multiple rounds of Thunderstorms will impact the waters today as a slow moving cold front approaches the area. Primary concerns will be strong winds, isolated waterspouts, frequent lightning and heavy rain. Winds will also increase ahead of these lines calling for small craft should exercise caution headlines for most areas.

FXUS62 KTBW 141329 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 929 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 925 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

A narrow line of storms is moving across north FL and portions of the Nature Coast, which has fortunately remained sub-severe this morning so far despite the favorable dynamics in place as well as moderate instability. Meanwhile, there is a larger cluster of storms offshore that has been moving ENE across the Gulf waters and recent satellite imagery shows cloud tops colder than -60C associated with this activity. Thus, this next wave of convection offshore may pose another severe risk but there remains uncertainty with how this cluster holds together as it gets closer to the coast. Given the favorable environment in place, will maintain the ongoing tornado watch for our northern counties and adjacent nearshore waters but will continue to keep a close watch on the convection offshore as it continues to approach our area.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 233 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

An active weather pattern continues as multiple rounds of showers and storms move through the area. Another MCS will slide across the northern Gulf and will likely be impacting our northern waters by morning. Current models are keeping the bulk of the convection with this round of storms mainly north of I4. However with the current dynamic setup, some storms could be severe with hail, damaging winds and a possible tornado. SPC currently has areas south to Sarasota county in a slight risk with the remaining areas of the CWA in a marginal risk.

Meanwhile as the MCS moves through today, an upper level trough continues to move across the Mississippi valley. The cold front associated with the trough will bring another round of showers and storms to our area beginning tonight and into tomorrow. Once again with increased instability, 500mb temps around -9/-10C, and a strong westerly flow, severe storms could be possible. Thus SPC, has placed the middle of the peninsula in a marginal risk. Primary threats will be hail and damaging winds.

Though ridging builds back over the area by the end of the week, enough moisture will be available that, rain chances remain in the forecast. By the weekend another cold front approaches the area bringing another round of convection. Hopefully with the multiple rounds of rain and storms, everyone's grass will once again be green.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 738 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Patchy MVFR CIGs this morning before mostly VFR conditions through the early afternoon hours, though flight conditions may deteriorate afterwards as a cluster of storms offshore approaches the area. There remains uncertainty with this activity and overall impacts but greatest precip chances will occur at Tampa Bay area terminals where VCTS has been added to KTPA/KPIE for possible restrictions. A lull in activity will occur tonight but another round of storms will move across the area Wednesday morning with additional restrictions possible.

MARINE
Issued at 233 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact waters this morning. Primary concerns will be strong winds, isolated waterspouts, frequent lightning and heavy rain. Winds will also increase ahead of these lines calling for Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines for most areas.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 233 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

An increase in moisture has helped RH values remain above critical levels for most areas, however they could dip down for areas that are left out of the rainfall. Several rounds of showers/thunderstorms expected through Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 90 78 87 77 / 30 50 80 30 FMY 93 78 92 78 / 10 20 40 30 GIF 94 75 90 74 / 40 40 80 30 SRQ 91 78 89 76 / 20 40 70 40 BKV 93 72 87 68 / 50 60 90 20 SPG 89 80 86 78 / 30 50 70 40

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Chassahowitzka
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Tue -- 01:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:48 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:10 AM EDT     0.18 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:38 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chassahowitzka, Chassahowitzka River, Florida, Tide feet

Halls River Bridge
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Tue -- 01:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:39 AM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:54 PM EDT     0.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:07 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:30 PM EDT     0.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Halls River Bridge, Halls River, Florida, Tide feet

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