Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Jones Creek, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 7:39PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 10:57 AM CDT (15:57 UTC) Moonrise 6:49AMMoonset 7:30PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ350 Coastal Waters From Freeport To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 20 Nm-coastal Waters From High Island To Freeport Out 20 Nm- 918 Am Cdt Tue Mar 28 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 pm cdt this afternoon through Wednesday morning...
Rest of today..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Tonight..Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Wednesday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 7 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 918 Am Cdt Tue Mar 28 2017
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Southeast winds should increase late this afternoon and tonight across the upper texas coastal waters. Seas will continue to gradually build this afternoon and tonight. Winds and seas should decrease Wednesday into Thursday as front pushes off the coast on Thursday. Offshore winds are expected Thursday into Friday but southerly winds develop again for the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jones Creek, TX
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location: 28.77, -95.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 281442
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston/galveston tx
942 am cdt Tue mar 28 2017

Update
Only minor tweaks were made to the previous forecast. Still
looking at the severe weather potential both tomorrow and later
this weekend. Current SPC outlook has all of SE texas in at least
a slight risk with areas to the north and northwest of houston in
an enhanced risk for severe weather tomorrow. Right now the greatest
potential looks to be in the tomorrow afternoon and evening time
frame with damaging winds, hail, tornadoes, and some locally
heavy rainfall all on the table. 11

Prev discussion /issued 639 am cdt Tue mar 28 2017/
aviation... /12z taf/
ceilings range fromVFR along the coast to MVFR over houston
terminals and then ifr/lifr for kcxo/kuts/kcll. The GOES 16
difference channel of 3.9-11 micron really does a great job
showing these low ceilings across the area. Based on this imagery,
ceilings should begin to improve the next couple of hours over
the houston area and points northward. Vad wind profile from the
khgx 88d only shows 15-25 knots in the lowest levels, but those
winds should increase during the day. This will also allow for
some gusts near 25 knots this afternoon with good mixing. Ceilings
should lift toVFR for most areas but then are expected to
decrease in the evening. A 40-50kt LLJ should maintain strong
winds overnight as ceilings become MVFR again. Wednesday should be
a messy day for aviation given the forecast for widespread
convection. Tafs have vcsh starting at 09z but look for vcts/tsra
beginning late morning Wednesday through the afternoon in future
taf updates.

Overpeck
prev discussion... /issued 402 am cdt Tue mar 28 2017/
discussion...

a progressive upper air pattern will bring a couple of stormy
episodes across southeast texas over the next seven days. The
first will begin late tonight through Thursday and the second will
occur over the weekend and into Monday night of the upcoming week.

Both systems will bring slight chances for at least isolated
strong thunderstorms to southeast texas.

The 06z nambufr forecast soundings show a fairly large cap over
the area tonight and early Wednesday morning. Even though this cap
should erode as the upper level storm system moves into the state,
the forecast soundings still showed somewhat of a capping
inversion in place over the southern half of the forecast area on
Wednesday and Wednesday night. A strong low-level jet will
develop overhead and help provide strong wind shear ahead of the
main area of storms. The latest nam12, gfs, and ECMWF all show
better chances for strong storms over the northern half of the
area mainly Wednesday and Wednesday evening. The storm prediction
center as of 3:30 am had best chances for severe potential
generally along and east of a line from madisonville to tomball
and north of a line from tomball to cleveland. Pws are forecast to
reach to around 1.7 inches, indicating the potential for at least
locally heavy rainfall.

Following this system, high pressure will bring a brief warm and
dry period Thursday night through Friday night. The next storm
system will then move across the state from late Saturday through
early Monday. Again looking at widespread rain and thunderstorms
with slight chances for isolated strong or severe storms Sunday
and Sunday night. Locally heavy rainfall also again appears to be
possible, especially in the ECMWF solution with a surface low
moving up the coastal plain.

40
marine...

moderate southerly winds this morning are expected to increase to
around 20 knots in offshore areas of the upper texas coast later
this afternoon and tonight. Winds should reach 20 to 25 knots
tonight with seas building to rough levels. A small craft advisory
will be issued for these areas for this afternoon and tonight. Winds
and seas gradually decrease Wednesday into Thursday. Thursday
offshore winds develop which will allow for seas to decrease further
for the end of the week. Southerly winds develop again over the
weekend.

Tide levels are about a half foot above normal and will likely
remain elevated for the next couple of days. Offshore winds on
Thursday into Friday may push tides lower.

Overpeck

Preliminary point temps/pops
College station (cll) 85 69 79 59 75 / 10 50 80 30 10
houston (iah) 85 71 84 67 80 / 10 20 80 50 30
galveston (gls) 79 72 77 70 77 / 10 10 60 50 30

Hgx watches/warnings/advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft should exercise caution from 4 pm cdt this afternoon
through Wednesday morning for the following zones:
galveston bay... Matagorda bay.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 10 am cdt
Wednesday for the following zones: coastal waters from
freeport to the matagorda ship channel out 20 nm... Coastal
waters from high island to freeport out 20 nm... Waters from
freeport to the matagorda ship channel from 20 to 60 nm...

waters from high island to freeport from 20 to 60 nm.

Discussion... 11


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SGNT2 0 mi40 min SE 15 G 19 74°F 76°F1011.4 hPa
EMAT2 17 mi40 min ESE 14 G 18 75°F 77°F1010.9 hPa
FCGT2 - 8772447 - USCG Freeport, TX 20 mi40 min ESE 13 G 17 75°F 73°F1012.5 hPa
KBQX 32 mi23 min SE 17 79°F 79°F
LUIT2 33 mi40 min SE 12 G 17 74°F
MBET2 45 mi40 min SSE 14 G 16 74°F
PCNT2 - 8773701 - Matagorda Bay; Port O'Connor, TX 47 mi40 min SE 15 G 19 74°F 1010.7 hPa

Wind History for USCG Freeport, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay City, Bay City Municipal Airport, TX19 mi83 minSE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F71°F87%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from BYY (wind in knots)
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S8SE9S9S6SE3SE4SE4E4SE4SE6SE6SE7SE6SE7SE7SE5SE6SE7SE10
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SE7SE5SE9CalmSE5SE4CalmCalmSE4SE4SE3E3CalmSE3S8
2 days agoNW8W10N4NW5W7SW7W4W4S8S5S3CalmCalmCalmS3CalmS4S3S4CalmSE3SE3S7S10

Tide / Current Tables for Freeport Harbor, Texas
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Freeport Harbor
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:19 AM CDT     1.50 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:15 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:47 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:15 AM CDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:32 PM CDT     1.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:37 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:28 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:18 PM CDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.91.11.41.51.51.30.90.60.30.20.30.40.60.91.11.21.21.10.80.40.100

Tide / Current Tables for Freeport, DOW Barge Canal, Texas
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Freeport
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:20 AM CDT     1.53 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:15 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:47 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:49 AM CDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:38 PM CDT     1.25 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:37 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:28 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:31 PM CDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.711.21.41.51.51.31.10.80.60.50.50.50.70.91.11.21.21.10.90.70.50.40.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.