Saturday, September23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Jones Creek, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 7:17PM Saturday September 23, 2017 7:38 AM CDT (12:38 UTC) Moonrise 9:17AMMoonset 8:47PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ350 Coastal Waters From Freeport To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 20 Nm-coastal Waters From High Island To Freeport Out 20 Nm- 339 Am Cdt Sat Sep 23 2017
Today..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 339 Am Cdt Sat Sep 23 2017
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Light to moderate southeast winds and seas of 2 to 3 feet will continue well into next week. Winds may approach caution criteria at times, particularly overnight and later next week as a front is expected to approach the area. Periods of showers and Thunderstorms are expected across the waters each day, with the greatest potential during the early morning hours.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jones Creek, TX
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location: 28.77, -95.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 231113
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
613 am cdt Sat sep 23 2017

Aviation
A challenging night, and those challenges should be expected to
continue into today as there remains no new word on when the
issues with observations from the TAF sites might be resolved. Iah
and hou have been augmented manually, which helps for those sites,
but this is not occurring at the other sites. Have appended amd
not sked to send the message that our ability to stay appraised of
conditions at the sites is not as high as normal. Will still
attempt to make amendments as other sources of data allow, but
this observation issue does pose difficulties.

Fog is developing tonight, and is starting to become dense west
of the area. So far, cll has been just east of this more dense
patch, but with 11r and cfd in the neighborhood crashing, cll may
follow shortly. Should see improvement toVFR shortly after the
open of the period, and is likely to continue until fog redevelops
late tonight. Onshore southeasterly flow can be expected again,
increasing to about 10 knots at a MAX this afternoon before
becoming light and variable again overnight.

Isolated to widely scattered showers should pop up across
southeast texas today, but with less coverage than even yesterday
expected, have opted to leave vcsh out of the tafs for now. If a
more preferred area of development becomes apparent near a taf
site, later cycles can address this.

Luchs

Prev discussion issued 401 am cdt Sat sep 23 2017
discussion...

normally i'd discuss current surface features and observations
but due to a communications issue observations from ASOS are not
being transmitted unless by an actual tower observer. This also
means we had to use early 1990s technology called a modem to dial
into the ASOS to get the daily climate report. We will also be
using that methodology to get updates on visibility across the
area. Fortunately we have a state of the art GOES 16 satellite to
help fill in the data holes especially for fog and low clouds.

Overall fog is patchy across the area but that could change over
the next couple of hours. We will of course be monitoring to issue
a dense fog advisory if obs indicate restricted visibility to a
quarter mile. Otherwise patchy fog should dissipate with the onset
of mixing through the boundary layer.

Looking at 00z soundings precipitable water values around 1.8
inches at lch and closer to 2 inches at crp. GOES 16 pw imagery
shows that plume of higher moisture over crp but lower values of
1.5 to 1.6 over SE texas and over to lch. Upper level analysis has
deep long wave trough over the western u.S. And an elongated
ridge through the plains into the midwest. Weak cutoff low was
noted over the SE u.S. Water vapor imagery captures this pattern
well. With all this in mind, forecast will hold onto 20 pops for
Saturday but likely not see much coverage in shower activity.

Latest tends in the hrrr show some showers along the coast after
16z and this activity moves inland. Coverage looks spotty at best.

Sunday through Tuesday moisture from the gulf increases. Amplified
jet stream pattern continues through Tuesday even with one upper
low moving into the northern plains and a jet streak diving south
across the pacific NW Tuesday morning. A cold front looks to push
into the texas panhandle but will be slow to move. Forecast will
keep mainly 30 pops with the increase in moisture and instability
but there will at least be some sinking motion from the ridge to
limit convection.

Higher rain chances look possible Wednesday into Thursday as the
cold front finally pushes southward. Upper low over the 4 corners
region cuts off from the main flow and a trough over the great
lakes develops. This northerly flow aloft helps bring a re-
enforcing area of high pressure into the plains. Cold front should
push through the area on Thursday. The 850mb front lags behind
but pushes through on Friday. High pressure becomes more
entrenched over the plains for next weekend. GFS still wants to
bring much higher moisture into the region ahead of the front but
the amount of QPF it generates Wednesday into Thursday does not
correspond well. Given the more consistent ECMWF in the extended
range, forecast tries to keep with lower pops the ECMWF suggests
with weak 500 mb ridging aloft and drier air pushing in with the
front.

Overpeck
marine...

a prolonged period of light to moderate onshore winds with seas
in the 2-3 foot ballpark continues, and is expected to continue
well into next week. Isolated to scattered showers and storms can
be expected daily. Tides also continue to run above astronomical
values with the continued onshore flow, and may run up to a foot
above normal to begin the new week. While this may start to
approach values at which we begin to see coastal impacts, current
expectations are that tides will stay below those critical values.

A cold front is expected sometime in the back half of next week,
which will increase winds and seas.

Luchs

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 91 72 90 71 90 20 10 10 10 30
houston (iah) 90 73 89 73 89 20 10 30 10 30
galveston (gls) 90 79 90 79 88 20 10 30 10 30

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... None.

Discussion... 39
aviation marine... 25


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SGNT2 0 mi51 min ESE 8 G 11 82°F 83°F1011.8 hPa
EMAT2 17 mi57 min E 7 G 8.9 81°F 83°F1011.6 hPa
FCGT2 - 8772447 - USCG Freeport, TX 20 mi51 min ESE 7 G 8.9 81°F 83°F1012.9 hPa
KBQX 32 mi44 min ESE 5.1 82°F 75°F
LUIT2 33 mi51 min SE 7 G 9.9 81°F
MBET2 45 mi51 min SSE 9.9 G 13 82°F 84°F1010.7 hPa
PCNT2 - 8773701 - Matagorda Bay; Port O'Connor, TX 47 mi57 min ESE 9.9 G 13 81°F 84°F1011.5 hPa

Wind History for USCG Freeport, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay City, Bay City Municipal Airport, TX19 mi44 minENE 33.00 miFog/Mist73°F72°F100%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from BYY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3E5E8E5E9SE12SE10
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SE12E10E8SE6E4CalmCalmE3E3E3CalmE3CalmNE3NE3NE3
1 day agoCalmSE9SE9SE3S10SW12SE6E9NE6W3CalmNE4NE7E5S4E3E6CalmSE4SE4SE4E4E3E4
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S10S6SE4SE5SE4SE4SE4E4SE5SE4SE4SE4SE4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Freeport Harbor, Texas
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Freeport Harbor
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:26 AM CDT     1.60 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:10 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:16 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:49 AM CDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:16 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:27 PM CDT     1.76 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:45 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.11.21.31.41.51.61.61.51.20.90.60.50.40.50.70.91.11.41.61.71.71.61.51.4

Tide / Current Tables for Freeport, DOW Barge Canal, Texas
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Freeport
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:39 AM CDT     1.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:17 AM CDT     1.48 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:10 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:16 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:52 AM CDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:16 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:21 PM CDT     1.79 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:45 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.21.21.31.41.51.51.31.210.80.70.60.70.811.31.51.71.81.81.71.61.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.