Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jones Creek, TX
May 20, 2024 4:11 PM CDT (21:11 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:25 AM Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 4:45 PM Moonset 3:32 AM |
GMZ350 Coastal Waters From Freeport To Matagorda Ship Channel Tx Out 20 Nm-coastal Waters From High Island To Freeport Tx Out 20 Nm- 209 Pm Cdt Mon May 20 2024
Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds.
Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 6 seconds.
Tuesday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: southeast 4 feet at 5 seconds.
Wednesday - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: southeast 4 feet at 5 seconds.
Wednesday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Wave detail: southeast 4 feet at 6 seconds.
Thursday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Wave detail: southeast 4 feet at 6 seconds.
Thursday night - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet.
Friday - South winds around 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet.
Friday night - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet.
Saturday night - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 209 Pm Cdt Mon May 20 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
generally moderate onshore winds can be expected through this week. At times, winds and seas may increase enough for small craft to exercise caution midweek.
generally moderate onshore winds can be expected through this week. At times, winds and seas may increase enough for small craft to exercise caution midweek.
Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 202023 AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 323 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024
New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024
The main story through the week will focus on the heat, which will give us a good taste of full-out summer in late May. Depending on how power restoration efforts go, this may be a specific concern around the Houston metro, but more broadly, heat stress tends to have greater impacts earlier in the season while folks are not yet acclimated. This holiday weekend is a good time to practice all things summer - yes, grilling and boating and such, but also practicing heat safety. A couple things to remember: - Look for forecast temperatures to rise into the holiday, going from lows in the upper 60s to around 70 and highs around 90 degrees today, to lows in the upper 70s to around 80 and highs in the lower to middle 90s a week from today. This should also push peak heat index values from the 90s today to levels that may exceed 105 degrees on Memorial Day.
- While rain chances will be functionally nil most places for most of the week, there's a small chance for showers and thunderstorms coming into the northern parts of the area from the northwest at times during the week. Even here, rain chances are low...but if anything does survive into Southeast Texas, it could involve a strong to severe thunderstorm. The first opportunity for such a conditional threat looks to be Wednesday evening. The northernmost sliver of our area is included in an SPC marginal risk area (threat level 1 of 5) for severe weather.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Visible satellite showing a scattered cumulus field across SE Texas as onshore flow continues ahead of a low pressure system. As with yesterday, will not see much vertical growth with these cumulus clouds as we remain under high pressure and vertical growth is inhibited by subsidence/drier air.
Cloud cover increases tonight, which will trap the warmer air in at the surface. This will lead to pretty warm nighttime lows as temperatures dip into the 70s area wide.
Breezy conditions continue Tuesday as a shortwave trough enters the Four Corners and creates another area of low pressure near the Panhandle. As this surface low deepens, it will interact with the high pressure near SE Texas and create a tighter pressure gradient.
This will result in, SE winds increasing to around 15 mph during the afternoon hours. Increased onshore flow will consequently bring PW values up to around 1.3-1.7" making it feel rather hot and muggy outside. Overhead a moderate (20-25kt) LLJ will battle the subsidence from ridging aloft. Ultimately, the ridging will win as cloud covered increases but the subsidence keeps the area rain free.
Max daytime temperatures will be in the 90s inland with low to mid 80s along the coast. Heat index values will continue to rise, and will be in the 100-105 range for the majority of the area.
Continue to exercise heat safety by staying hydrated, taking frequent breaks, and avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day. Remember to look before you lock, and if the ground is too hot for your hand, it is too hot for pets' paws!
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024
The primary feature in the long term will be subtropical ridge aloft, centered right over Mexico. It looks to stay somewhat stable through the period, with any fluctuations important to the nuances of our forecast weather more to the fringes of its influence. However, in general, a strong subtropical ridge as we head into the summer means heat is the primary thing to pay attention to, and that certainly is the case here.
Let's start by taking a glance at the Euro ensemble's Extreme Forecast Index. When it comes to high temperatures, it's not
that
bad, actually. We've got a signal for potential very unseasonable heat popping up near the coast, where the EFI exceeds 0.5, but for the most part, the real torch is focused more over South Texas. The same cannot be said for overnight lows. EFI values for min temps above 0.5 emerge tonight, and find themselves at a very eyebrow-waggling levels above 0.8 from Tuesday night through the rest of the period. There are even isolated locations exceeding 0.9 along the Gulf Coast. Given the strong ridge, persistent onshore flow feeding in air from above an anomalously warm Gulf, and really warm nights seem like the near certainty the EFI implies. This can cause serious issues for folks who aren't able to get breaks in cooled areas, as the accumulation of heat stress is a major factor, and unseasonably high days followed by potentially record warm nights is not going to provide that opportunity for a break unless air conditioning is involved.
So, the question becomes, "It's going to be hot, but will it be hot enough for any heat advisories or warnings?" And the answer to that is a definite maybe. By Monday, if my forecast is perfect (I wish), we do have some heat index values above 108 emerging which is our threshold for a heat advisory. That said, for a derived parameter that depends on both temperature and dewpoint, I'm not going to get too specific on this. Suffice to say, the trend, like with temps, will also be upwards. This also holds when we consider an alternative look at heat like Wet Bulb Globe Temp. The trend here also shows a drift up from widespread "Moderate" risk area (level 3 of 5) to widespread "High" risk (level 4 of 5) by the weekend. We should find ourselves in something very much like we'd see fully into summer to celebrate the traditional "opening" of summer this weekend.
Beyond the heat, we do have one other thing to talk about, and that will be our small rain chances this week. This scenario is typical for this time of year, when the subtropical ridge is building in but not quite dominant. We'll be spending our evenings watching up to the northwest, to see if convection that fires there earlier in the day survives into any portion of Southeast Texas. The odds are low, and I try to keep my slight chances restricted to areas north of Brenham, Navasota, Huntsville, and the like. The best days still seem to be Wednesday and particularly Thursday, as shortwave troughs pass by to our north, then perhaps again next Monday night. Also of note - in these situations, should anything beat the odds and survive, it could be strong to severe. In keeping with this, SPC has the northernmost sliver of our area in a marginal risk area (threat level 1 of 5)
on Wednesday. Though they do not explicitly delineate such areas on Days 4-8, the placement of a 15 percent/"slight risk" area on Thursday implies much the same situation.
AVIATION
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Mixture of VFR/MVFR CIGs this afternoon, courtesy of a Cu field that is leading to BKN skies at GLS and FEW to SCT skies elsewhere. Expect cloud cover to become more BKN to OVC at MVFR levels tonight into Tuesday morning with a few hours of IFR CIGs possible for some locations from 12-14Z Tuesday morning. Winds will be 8-12 kts out of SE through tomorrow morning, with gusts to 20kts possible Tuesday afternoon.
MARINE
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Generally moderate onshore winds can be expected through this week. At times, winds and seas may increase enough for small craft to exercise caution midweek.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 74 91 76 90 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 75 90 76 89 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 77 85 77 84 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 323 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024
New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024
The main story through the week will focus on the heat, which will give us a good taste of full-out summer in late May. Depending on how power restoration efforts go, this may be a specific concern around the Houston metro, but more broadly, heat stress tends to have greater impacts earlier in the season while folks are not yet acclimated. This holiday weekend is a good time to practice all things summer - yes, grilling and boating and such, but also practicing heat safety. A couple things to remember: - Look for forecast temperatures to rise into the holiday, going from lows in the upper 60s to around 70 and highs around 90 degrees today, to lows in the upper 70s to around 80 and highs in the lower to middle 90s a week from today. This should also push peak heat index values from the 90s today to levels that may exceed 105 degrees on Memorial Day.
- While rain chances will be functionally nil most places for most of the week, there's a small chance for showers and thunderstorms coming into the northern parts of the area from the northwest at times during the week. Even here, rain chances are low...but if anything does survive into Southeast Texas, it could involve a strong to severe thunderstorm. The first opportunity for such a conditional threat looks to be Wednesday evening. The northernmost sliver of our area is included in an SPC marginal risk area (threat level 1 of 5) for severe weather.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Visible satellite showing a scattered cumulus field across SE Texas as onshore flow continues ahead of a low pressure system. As with yesterday, will not see much vertical growth with these cumulus clouds as we remain under high pressure and vertical growth is inhibited by subsidence/drier air.
Cloud cover increases tonight, which will trap the warmer air in at the surface. This will lead to pretty warm nighttime lows as temperatures dip into the 70s area wide.
Breezy conditions continue Tuesday as a shortwave trough enters the Four Corners and creates another area of low pressure near the Panhandle. As this surface low deepens, it will interact with the high pressure near SE Texas and create a tighter pressure gradient.
This will result in, SE winds increasing to around 15 mph during the afternoon hours. Increased onshore flow will consequently bring PW values up to around 1.3-1.7" making it feel rather hot and muggy outside. Overhead a moderate (20-25kt) LLJ will battle the subsidence from ridging aloft. Ultimately, the ridging will win as cloud covered increases but the subsidence keeps the area rain free.
Max daytime temperatures will be in the 90s inland with low to mid 80s along the coast. Heat index values will continue to rise, and will be in the 100-105 range for the majority of the area.
Continue to exercise heat safety by staying hydrated, taking frequent breaks, and avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day. Remember to look before you lock, and if the ground is too hot for your hand, it is too hot for pets' paws!
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024
The primary feature in the long term will be subtropical ridge aloft, centered right over Mexico. It looks to stay somewhat stable through the period, with any fluctuations important to the nuances of our forecast weather more to the fringes of its influence. However, in general, a strong subtropical ridge as we head into the summer means heat is the primary thing to pay attention to, and that certainly is the case here.
Let's start by taking a glance at the Euro ensemble's Extreme Forecast Index. When it comes to high temperatures, it's not
that
bad, actually. We've got a signal for potential very unseasonable heat popping up near the coast, where the EFI exceeds 0.5, but for the most part, the real torch is focused more over South Texas. The same cannot be said for overnight lows. EFI values for min temps above 0.5 emerge tonight, and find themselves at a very eyebrow-waggling levels above 0.8 from Tuesday night through the rest of the period. There are even isolated locations exceeding 0.9 along the Gulf Coast. Given the strong ridge, persistent onshore flow feeding in air from above an anomalously warm Gulf, and really warm nights seem like the near certainty the EFI implies. This can cause serious issues for folks who aren't able to get breaks in cooled areas, as the accumulation of heat stress is a major factor, and unseasonably high days followed by potentially record warm nights is not going to provide that opportunity for a break unless air conditioning is involved.
So, the question becomes, "It's going to be hot, but will it be hot enough for any heat advisories or warnings?" And the answer to that is a definite maybe. By Monday, if my forecast is perfect (I wish), we do have some heat index values above 108 emerging which is our threshold for a heat advisory. That said, for a derived parameter that depends on both temperature and dewpoint, I'm not going to get too specific on this. Suffice to say, the trend, like with temps, will also be upwards. This also holds when we consider an alternative look at heat like Wet Bulb Globe Temp. The trend here also shows a drift up from widespread "Moderate" risk area (level 3 of 5) to widespread "High" risk (level 4 of 5) by the weekend. We should find ourselves in something very much like we'd see fully into summer to celebrate the traditional "opening" of summer this weekend.
Beyond the heat, we do have one other thing to talk about, and that will be our small rain chances this week. This scenario is typical for this time of year, when the subtropical ridge is building in but not quite dominant. We'll be spending our evenings watching up to the northwest, to see if convection that fires there earlier in the day survives into any portion of Southeast Texas. The odds are low, and I try to keep my slight chances restricted to areas north of Brenham, Navasota, Huntsville, and the like. The best days still seem to be Wednesday and particularly Thursday, as shortwave troughs pass by to our north, then perhaps again next Monday night. Also of note - in these situations, should anything beat the odds and survive, it could be strong to severe. In keeping with this, SPC has the northernmost sliver of our area in a marginal risk area (threat level 1 of 5)
on Wednesday. Though they do not explicitly delineate such areas on Days 4-8, the placement of a 15 percent/"slight risk" area on Thursday implies much the same situation.
AVIATION
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Mixture of VFR/MVFR CIGs this afternoon, courtesy of a Cu field that is leading to BKN skies at GLS and FEW to SCT skies elsewhere. Expect cloud cover to become more BKN to OVC at MVFR levels tonight into Tuesday morning with a few hours of IFR CIGs possible for some locations from 12-14Z Tuesday morning. Winds will be 8-12 kts out of SE through tomorrow morning, with gusts to 20kts possible Tuesday afternoon.
MARINE
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Generally moderate onshore winds can be expected through this week. At times, winds and seas may increase enough for small craft to exercise caution midweek.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 74 91 76 90 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 75 90 76 89 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 77 85 77 84 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| EMAT2 | 17 mi | 53 min | E 11G | 83°F | 85°F | 29.83 | ||
| FPST2 | 20 mi | 53 min | E 15G | 80°F | 82°F | 29.83 | ||
| LUIT2 | 33 mi | 53 min | E 11G | 82°F | 85°F | 29.85 | ||
| MBET2 | 45 mi | 53 min | SE 13G | 82°F | 83°F | 29.80 | ||
| PCNT2 - 8773701 - Matagorda Bay; Port O'Connor, TX | 47 mi | 53 min | ENE 11G | 83°F | 85°F | 29.82 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBYY BAY CITY RGNL,TX | 19 sm | 16 min | SSE 10 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 88°F | 73°F | 62% | 29.83 |
Freeport Harbor
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:26 AM CDT 1.83 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:30 AM CDT Moonset
Mon -- 06:26 AM CDT Sunrise
Mon -- 08:44 AM CDT 1.44 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:56 PM CDT 1.58 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:44 PM CDT Moonrise
Mon -- 08:01 PM CDT 0.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:09 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:26 AM CDT 1.83 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:30 AM CDT Moonset
Mon -- 06:26 AM CDT Sunrise
Mon -- 08:44 AM CDT 1.44 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:56 PM CDT 1.58 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:44 PM CDT Moonrise
Mon -- 08:01 PM CDT 0.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:09 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Freeport Harbor, Texas (2), Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.2 |
| 1 am |
| 1.5 |
| 2 am |
| 1.7 |
| 3 am |
| 1.8 |
| 4 am |
| 1.8 |
| 5 am |
| 1.7 |
| 6 am |
| 1.6 |
| 7 am |
| 1.5 |
| 8 am |
| 1.5 |
| 9 am |
| 1.4 |
| 10 am |
| 1.5 |
| 11 am |
| 1.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.7 |
Freeport
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:39 AM CDT 1.71 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:30 AM CDT Moonset
Mon -- 06:26 AM CDT Sunrise
Mon -- 10:26 AM CDT 1.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:29 PM CDT 1.25 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:44 PM CDT Moonrise
Mon -- 08:09 PM CDT Sunset
Mon -- 08:12 PM CDT 0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:39 AM CDT 1.71 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:30 AM CDT Moonset
Mon -- 06:26 AM CDT Sunrise
Mon -- 10:26 AM CDT 1.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:29 PM CDT 1.25 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:44 PM CDT Moonrise
Mon -- 08:09 PM CDT Sunset
Mon -- 08:12 PM CDT 0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Freeport, DOW Barge Canal, Texas, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.1 |
| 1 am |
| 1.4 |
| 2 am |
| 1.6 |
| 3 am |
| 1.7 |
| 4 am |
| 1.7 |
| 5 am |
| 1.6 |
| 6 am |
| 1.6 |
| 7 am |
| 1.4 |
| 8 am |
| 1.3 |
| 9 am |
| 1.3 |
| 10 am |
| 1.2 |
| 11 am |
| 1.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.6 |
Houston/Galveston, TX,
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