Saturday, June24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Homosassa, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 8:32PM Saturday June 24, 2017 9:57 AM EDT (13:57 UTC) Moonrise 6:10AMMoonset 8:13PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 342 Am Edt Sat Jun 24 2017
Today..Southwest winds around 5 knots then becoming west around 10 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Tonight..West winds around 10 knots diminishing to around 5 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms in the evening.
Sunday..West winds around 5 knots increasing to around 10 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..North winds around 5 knots then becoming northwest around 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots then becoming northeast after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..North winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered Thunderstorms in the evening, then isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms in the morning, then scattered Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 342 Am Edt Sat Jun 24 2017
Synopsis.. No major marine hazards are expected through early next week. High pressure will continue to dominate our area producing a south to southeast flow with winds taking on a southwest and west component during the afternoon/evening hours as the sea breeze forms and pushes inland. While greatest rain chances will remain inland, typical summertime boating precautions should still be exercised as any Thunderstorm can produce gusty winds and locally higher waves. Early into the middle of next work week, a cold front will push south and stall across our area shifting winds to more of a northeasterly direction.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Homosassa, FL
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location: 28.78, -82.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 241147
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
342 am edt Sat jun 24 2017

Aviation (update)
Still seeing some lingering light showers mainly around tampa and
areas north. Also seeing some more steadier showers this morning
about 30 miles out in the gulf. By afternoon, scattered showers and
thunderstorm will develop with the greatest coverage expected across
the interior peninsula.

Short term (today - Sunday night)
Still seeing a few lingering showers around tampa bay this
morning with this activity likely to continue slowly pushing
northwest for a few more hours this morning. The surface
ridge axis placement will keep a light flow in place over
central fl with winds southeasterly across our southern
zones with a more southwesterly flow expected across the
nature coast. This SW flow combined with ample atmospheric
moisture should support some morning showers moving into the
areas north of tampa bay in the mid to late morning.

Elsewhere, terrestrial heating will allow a seabreeze to
develop by early afternoon turning winds onshore near the
coast. Sufficient moisture will be in place across the area
to support shra TSTM development with afternoon seabreeze
collision. Looks like the greatest coverage will be along
and east of i-75 today in the late afternoon to early
evening. Temperatures will be warm again today with low to
mid 90s expected.

Fairly similar weather pattern expected for Sunday although
models are showing a slightly more moist atmosphere compared
to Saturday. This should lead to a bit better coverage of
afternoon showers and storms with the interior peninsula
most likely to see greatest coverage.

Long term (Monday - Friday)
The upcoming work week is shaping up to be an active summer
convection period as several factors work together in order
to keep late afternoon and evening thunderstorms coverage
rather high. Monday begins the long term period with the
florida peninsula residing at or just below the base of
longwave troughing over the eastern conus. Associated with
this trough, we will find a weak frontal boundary that will
have sagged to near the i-10 corridor by morning. This
feature will have a big impact on the Monday forecast,
especially just how far south this boundary sags by the
afternoon hours. This aspect is not 100% agreed upon among
the ensemble members, with the GFS showing the most
southward solution. Using LI as a proxy for surface boundary
position, the front will lie somewhere between gainesville,
and the i-4 corridor. Other guidance members are slightly
shifted northward back closer to i-10. The main impact of
this difference would be just how much drier the forecast
will be for the northern zones (levy citrus). Being behind
the boundary would certainly decrease rain chances, however,
with the GFS being the most aggressive in movement, will
keep a forecast that gives some weight to the more numerous
northern solutions. Things can be adjusted should a trend
toward the current GFS solution appear in later guidance
packages. For everyone else, this combination of synoptic
focus, sea-breeze focus, and a highly moist column south of
the boundary will no doubt support development of numerous
diurnal showers storms. Monday will see the weakest low
level flow of the extended period, and hence the west-coast
sea- breeze will have the best potential to move inland
during the day. Of course, convection may alter some of this
evolution, but feel Monday is the best chance to see
convection consolidate during the evening hours across our
inland areas (similar to the current nam).

The frontal boundary will certainly become stationary by
Monday night, and then decay quickly during the day
Tuesday. The frontal decay will allow continental high
pressure along the eastern seaboard to take control of our
synoptic low level flow. 100-700mb flow will become increasingly
easterly through Tuesday, and become defined by Tuesday
night. The ridge then shifts offshore of the carolinas for
the remainder of the week, with our low level winds veering
slightly out of the southeast.

This E SE flow is an active sea-breeze convection setup for
the florida west coast, as it focuses the greatest low level
focus convergence along the west-coast seabreeze i-75
corridor of the state. This already favorable convection
setup will be enhanced by a very moist and thermodynamically
friendly atmospheric column (pw values at or over 2").

Therefore, the forecasts for the middle and end of the week
will remain similar from day to day. Nocturnal scattered
storms are likely over the eastern gulf of mexico
(especially late along land-breeze boundaries). The landmass
will should see mostly dry conditions during the overnight
and through the morning midday hours. Sct showers and storms
will migrate east to west across the state during the afternoon
hours, and then consolidate in coverage during the late
afternoon early evening hours along the fl west coast. The
synoptic flow will then favor this activity migrating offshore
into the gulf and weakening during the later evening hours.

Temperatures throughout this period look to be near climo,
with no significant synoptic influences to suggest anything
different. Local convective clusters on Monday and Tuesday
may be enough to keep certain areas in the 80s, but to early
to try and get all that detailed at this stage, nor is it
going to change many plans whether high temps are say 90 vs
85.

Marine
No major marine hazards are expected through early next
week. High pressure will continue to dominate our area
producing a south to southeast flow with winds taking on a
southwest and west component during the afternoon evening
hours as the sea breeze forms and pushes inland. While
greatest rain chances will remain inland, typical summertime
boating precautions should still be exercised as any
thunderstorm can produce gusty winds and locally higher
waves.

Fire weather
With moist southeasterly flow continuing into next week,
moisture content and relative humidity values will remain
well above critical levels. This combined with chances for
rain each day will prevent any fire weather concerns.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 91 77 90 76 30 20 40 30
fmy 93 76 92 75 40 30 30 30
gif 94 76 93 74 40 40 50 40
srq 90 76 88 76 20 20 20 20
bkv 92 74 91 73 30 20 40 30
spg 91 78 90 77 30 10 30 20

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Short term aviation marine fire weather... 27 shiveley
mid term long term decision support... 03 paxton


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL 30 mi57 min WSW 2.9 G 5.1 83°F 1018.4 hPa (+1.6)73°F
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 44 mi123 min SE 6 G 6 80°F 1018 hPa

Wind History for Cedar Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Crystal River Airport, FL10 mi2.4 hrsN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F73°F94%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from CGC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4SE3S6SE5SE4SE3W8W5W7W6W5W4W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSE5SE3SE5S5SE3SE4S3W6W6W6W7N3CalmCalmCalmNE8CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSE6SE8
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Tide / Current Tables for Tuckers Island, Homosassa River, Florida
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Tuckers Island
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:42 AM EDT     1.03 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:59 AM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:21 PM EDT     2.37 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:12 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.4-0.20.30.7110.90.80.60.50.50.50.71.11.62.12.32.321.510.50-0.3

Tide / Current Tables for Mangrove Pt., Crystal Bay, Florida
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Mangrove Pt.
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:32 AM EDT     3.05 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:09 AM EDT     1.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:57 PM EDT     4.38 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:13 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:12 PM EDT     -0.88 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.71.72.5332.72.21.71.311.21.72.63.54.14.44.13.32.31.30.3-0.5-0.9-0.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.