Sunrise 6:42 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 3:26 AM   Moonset 3:36 PM

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GMZ330 Matagorda Bay- 328 Pm Cdt Sat May 4 2024
Tonight - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Sunday - Southeast winds around 15 knots, becoming east 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.Sunday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming southeast around 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy, becoming slightly choppy after midnight. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening.Monday - Southeast winds around 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming choppy in the late morning and afternoon. Monday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.Tuesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Wednesday - South winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy. Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Thursday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.Thursday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 328 Pm Cdt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
moderate to occasionally strong onshore winds and elevated seas will prevail through the weekend and into next week. Winds and seas will reach small craft should exercise caution levels at times. Shower and Thunderstorm chances continue over the weekend, but a more organized line of Thunderstorms is expected to approach the coast early Sunday morning, potentially bringing gusty winds. Drier conditions return to the area during the upcoming week.

FXUS64 KCRP 042005 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 305 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Key Messages:

- There is a low chance for thunderstorms in the northern Rio Grande Plains, northern Brush Country, and Victoria Crossroads.

Low pressure in west Texas, and a warm front that is stretched across north Texas and into Oklahoma will begin to move tonight as a 500 mb shortwave trough pushes through the region and pushes the sfc low east and the warm front a little south into the Hill Country.
Models are kind of divided into two camps, The ECMWF fires off a storm, or a complex of storms that move into the Hill country and turns east along the front and continues east into southeast and east Texas. The GFS fires off the complex near EPZ and moves east overnight. The CAMs fall into pretty much those two camps. The NBM takes a blend of these two sets spreads the pops south into the northern Brush country with chance (40-50% chance pops from northern Webb county to around VCT. The showers and thunderstorms look to last into the morning on Sunday, however, the models again, are in two camps with the ECMWF bringing a small bull's eye of rain, while the GFS begins to clear out. The NBM continues with 50% pops in most of the forecast area through about 15z, before it begins to medium chance pops 30-40% by 18z, and 20% pops through the afternoon.
Sunday night looks to quiet down and clear out as high pressure and dry air moves back into the region.

LONG TERM
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Key Messages:

- There is a moderate to high chance of heat index values 95 degrees and higher.

Onshore flow will continue to stream moisture into the area, resulting in above normal moisture across South Texas. This will combine with the increasing heat to result in heat index values over 95 degrees. By Wednesday, there is a moderate to high chance that heat index values will be 105 or greater over portions of South Texas. A Heat Advisory may be needed for the latter part of the week. For those of us who think this is "just normal" for South Texas, we need to remember that we aren't quite used to this. The NWS HeatRisk, which takes the time of year into account, indicates a high HeatRisk for each day from Tuesday through the end of the work week--with an Extreme risk for portions of South Texas Thursday.
Please use caution if you need to be outside.

There is still a bit of a cool down on the horizon as a cold front is expected to move through this weekend. At this point, we'll take whatever we can get before summer comes.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

MVFR CIGs will continue over the majority of the forecast area with only VCT that could see any VFR CIGs . With all of the moisture in the low levels (sfc dewpoints around 70), patchy fog (20-30% <5 miles) will reform tonight. the concern tonight into Sunday morning will be for LRD, COT, and VCT as the front and dry line, that has been stalled in central and west Texas, will sag south. Models have been showing a low probability (20-30%) that showers and thunderstorms will make it into VCT and LRD, and a 40% chance of getting into COT. so have put in VCTS for the overnight period at those sites, and have left precipitation out of ALI and CRP. As the disturbance and front move east, the CIGs and VSBYs are expected to clear out by the afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected continue tonight and go through the end of the work week, with Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions expected each afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 75 87 75 88 / 20 40 10 0 Victoria 73 83 73 88 / 40 50 10 0 Laredo 76 91 76 97 / 30 50 0 0 Alice 74 88 74 92 / 30 40 10 0 Rockport 75 84 76 85 / 20 40 10 0 Cotulla 75 90 76 95 / 50 60 10 0 Kingsville 75 87 75 90 / 20 40 10 0 Navy Corpus 76 84 76 86 / 20 40 10 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Port Lavaca
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Sat -- 01:30 AM CDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:24 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:41 AM CDT     0.77 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:39 PM CDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:34 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:32 PM CDT     0.73 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:03 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Lavaca, Matagorda Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Port O'Connor
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Sat -- 04:23 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:31 AM CDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:08 PM CDT     0.61 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:33 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:02 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:18 PM CDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port O'Connor, Matagorda Bay, Texas, Tide feet

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