Friday, October20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sanford, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 6:50PM Friday October 20, 2017 8:38 AM EDT (12:38 UTC) Moonrise 7:08AMMoonset 6:45PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 418 Am Edt Fri Oct 20 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Isolated sprinkles.
Tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Saturday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 418 Am Edt Fri Oct 20 2017
Synopsis..A high pressure ridge will remain centered north of florida into this weekend. This will maintain breezy northeast to east winds and hazardous conditions for small craft operation. A cold front will moves through central florida late Tuesday, with increasing coverage of showers and a few storms expected Sunday and Monday.
Gulf stream hazards..Northeast winds up to 20 knots with seas of 7 to 8 feet. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Thursday october 19th. 40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 29 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 24 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 16 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 9 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sanford, FL
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location: 28.83, -81.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 200901
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
500 am edt Fri oct 20 2017

Discussion
First significant cold front of the fall season will push through
central florida by Tuesday night...

today tonight... Drier air rounding the base of high pressure
centered to our north will lessen pops further today, with limited
low-level moisture keeping chances for light showers confined mainly
our southern zones. Not expecting any deep convection (thunder)
today as a building ridge aloft leads to significant subsidence and
drying aloft. Will carry scattered pops (30-40%) across the treasure
coast where enough 1000-850mb moisture remains to support low-topped
marine showers moving onshore in the brisk east flow. Further to the
north, measurable precipitation will be far more the exception than
the rule, so will carry pops of 20% or less with the mention of
isolated sprinkles. For the overnight, low-topped showers will
remain isolated, with little in the way of measurable precipitation
expected. A small chance has been drawn in along the coast south of
cape canaveral.

Afternoon highs will be within a few degrees of their late october
average, ranging from the low 80s along the immediate coast to the
mid 80s across the interior.

Saturday-Monday... H50 high center over florida and the southeastern
conus will hold sway this weekend. The high will eventually give way
to an amplifying trough, which digs SE into the lower ms valley by
mid day Monday, then moves e-ne into the SE CONUS by Monday night.

Strong mid to upper level forced ascent will allow a surface low to
develop along the central gulf coast by Sunday night, then lift nne
rapidly through the tn oh valleys Monday and into the lower great
lakes Monday night. The low will drag the first significant autumnal
cold front toward central florida, which will be preceded by a pre-
frontal trough, and likely a broken band of showers and storms on
Monday night.

In the interim, after one more day of onshore easterly flow and
spotty light rain showers moving onshore, mainly across the south,
low level flow will veer to southeast Sunday-Sunday night, then
southerly through Monday night ahead of the pre-frontal trough.

Pops from 15-20 north to 30-40 far Saturday, will increase to 40
south and 50-60 north on Sunday, owing to increasing moisture and
weak warm frontogenetic forcing. Southerly flow with scattered
showers and a few storms on Monday, with coverage increasing late
Monday night with the approach of the pre-frontal trough. MAX temps
in the m-u80s each day, with mins generally in the l-m70s (highest
along the coast).

Tuesday-Friday..Aforementioned mid level short wave trough dampens
out rapidly as it lifts ne, courtesy of a deep, longer wave trough
which amplifies across the eastern CONUS Wednesday-Thursday, while
becoming negatively tilted. The prefrontal trough and trailing cold
front move through the area Tuesday, which model guidance showing a
reinforcing trough pushing through ecfl late Tuesday night-early
Wednesday morning. Behind these boundaries, strong high pressure
will build form the southern plains into the gulf of mexico and then
florida from Wednesday though sunset Thursday. Modest return flow
develops beginning Thursday night.

Both the mid upper lift looks pretty respectable, and h85 LLJ (35-
45kt) look pretty respectable across north florida from late Monday
night into early Tuesday. Thus, there seems to be at least some
potential for stronger storms from around the i-4 corridor north
during that time frame, before the stronger deep layer wind fields
lift out rapidly during the day. Something to keep an eye on.

Temps near climo norms of l80s l-m60s through Tuesday night. On
Wednesday-Thursday, 70s for highs and mainly 50s for mins, then
rebounding nicely closer to climo for next Friday.

Aviation Drier air filtering in from the northeast will limit the
coverage of onshore-moving showers to our southern terminals, namely
kvrb south. Will maintain vcsh there, otherwise,VFR expected to
prevail with sct clouds between fl020-030. Brisk onshore (east) flow
will become gusty after sunrise.

Marine Today tonight... High pressure centered to the north will
maintain a 5 to 6 mb gradient along the east coast of florida,
leading to brisk northeast-east winds 15-20 knots. A lengthening
fetch of onshore flow will support seas 5-7 feet in the nearshore
zones and up to 8 feet in the offshore zones. No changes to the
small craft advisory.

This weekend... Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue with
winds seas running near 17-21kt 5-7ft Saturday, then decreasing to
around 14-18kt 4-6ft Sunday. SCA will continue through Saturday
night, with cautionary conditions likely offshore on Sunday.

Scattered showers, with a few storms possible late Sunday.

Monday-Tuesday... Winds will veer to se-s on Monday ahead of an
approaching strong cold front, which will reach the northern waters
Tuesday and push south of jupiter inlet by late Tuesday evening.

Expect increasing coverage of showers and a few storms Monday, with
the front likely preceded by a more organized band of storms. Wind
speeds 13-18kt Monday, dropping off some to 12-15kt Tuesday as they
veer offshore. Seas 4ft near shore 6ft offshore Monday, subsiding a
bit to 3-4ft nearshore 5-6ft offshore by Tuesday.

Hydrology The middle and upper saint johns river basins remain
in flood. While additional light rainfall is in the forecast through
the weekend, amounts look very light. Thus, the nearly steady or
very slight fall we've had in river levels the last few weeks will
continue.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 84 74 84 75 10 10 20 30
mco 85 71 87 73 10 10 20 20
mlb 85 78 86 77 20 20 20 30
vrb 85 77 86 76 20 20 30 30
lee 87 70 87 72 10 0 10 10
sfb 85 71 87 73 10 10 20 20
orl 85 71 87 73 10 10 20 20
fpr 84 77 85 76 30 20 30 30

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Saturday for flagler beach
to volusia-brevard county line 0-20 nm.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt Saturday for volusia-brevard
county line to sebastian inlet 0-20 nm.

Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Sunday for flagler beach to
volusia-brevard county line 20-60 nm-sebastian inlet to
jupiter inlet 0-20 nm-sebastian inlet to jupiter inlet 20-
60 nm-volusia-brevard county line to sebastian inlet 20-60
nm.

Short term aviation... Ulrich
long term impact wx... Cristaldi


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 48 mi50 min NE 8 G 12 77°F 81°F1021.2 hPa
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 57 mi113 min NE 6 77°F 1022 hPa66°F
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 64 mi48 min NE 16 G 19 80°F 81°F7 ft1019.2 hPa68°F

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Orlando / Sanford Airport, FL5 mi46 minNNE 510.00 miFair72°F68°F87%1020.1 hPa
Orlando Executive Airport, FL19 mi46 minN 410.00 miFair73°F69°F89%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from SFB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6NE8NE9NE11NE13NE16E14NE12NE13
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1 day agoNE6E9NE12NE17
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NE9NE6NE4N6N7N5N7N6N6N5N4N4N4N6N5
2 days agoN7N8N12NE14
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G19
N13N15NE12NE10N10N11NE10N8N5NE7E8E5NE4N7N5NE6

Tide / Current Tables for Ponce Inlet, Halifax River, Florida
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Ponce Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:36 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:48 AM EDT     3.76 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:01 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:58 PM EDT     3.55 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.31.50.70.30.30.71.42.333.63.83.52.821.20.70.50.71.32.12.83.33.53.3

Tide / Current Tables for Ponce De Leon Inlet South, Florida (sub)
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Ponce De Leon Inlet South
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:22 AM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:32 AM EDT     3.73 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:47 PM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:42 PM EDT     3.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.11.30.60.20.30.81.62.43.23.73.73.32.61.810.60.50.81.52.22.93.43.53.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.