Sunrise 6:42 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 3:25 AM   Moonset 3:36 PM

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GMZ330 Matagorda Bay- 325 Am Cdt Sat May 4 2024
Today - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms this morning. Tonight - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to around 15 knots late. Bay waters choppy, becoming slightly choppy late. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Sunday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Sunday night - Southeast winds around 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight, then diminishing to around 15 knots late. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming choppy after midnight, then becoming slightly choppy late. Monday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Monday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Wednesday - South winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 325 Am Cdt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
moderate to occasionally strong onshore winds and seas generally from 4 to 6 ft, occasionally higher, will prevail through the weekend and into next week. Winds and seas will reach small craft should exercise caution conditions at times. Shower and storm chances continue today. A more organized line of Thunderstorms is expected to approach the coast on Sunday, potentially bringing gusty winds. Drier conditions return next week.

FXUS64 KCRP 040811 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 311 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Not much change in the pattern today with onshore flow persisting, keeping a steady flow of low level moisture in the area. This will keep the possibility for some more of those pesky light showers, but not expecting anything measurable today. Additional Sierra Madre convection will be possible this evening into the overnight, and an isolated storm could drift across the Rio Grande late tonight. As we head into Sunday morning, a fairly potent shortwave pushes across the region, and could tap into a brief increase in deep layer moisture transiting the area. This along with the potential for a decaying MCS out of the north sagging in will add up to a 30-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, especially north
Overall not expecting much rain
largely under a tenth of an inch, but some thunderstorms could produce briefly heavy rainfall rates to result in some higher amounts. Northern victoria county is clipped by both a marginal risk of excessive rainfall and a marginal risk of strong thunderstorms for Sunday.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Key Messages:

- There will be a moderate to major risk of heat impacts from Tuesday through Thursday.

Ensemble guidance for next week features the development of a positively tilted 500 hPa trough extending from the Great Lakes to the southwest CONUS. Southwest flow off the terrain of Mexico will contribute to 850 hPa temperatures increasing to 25-30C Tuesday through Thursday. Meanwhile, onshore flow will continue to advect Gulf moisture into South Texas with both the NAEFS and ENS forecasting 925 hPa specific humidity above the 90th percentile for early May. This will result in hot and humid conditions during the middle of next week.

While above normal low level moisture will be in place across the region, mixing is expected to reduce humidity during the afternoon hours which will put a small damper on the magnitude of the heat, particularly out west. As a result, there is currently a 10-40% chance of maximum heat index values exceeding our Heat Advisory criteria of 110 degrees each afternoon Tuesday through Thursday, with the highest likelihood on Thursday. However, mostly sunny skies will increase heat stress beyond just the temperature and humidity alone. Accounting for this heat stress due to direct sunlight, the forecast WBGT currently indicates a High to Extreme threat of heat stress across South Texas for 4-6 hours each afternoon. Additionally, given that this will be the first prolonged stretch of above normal heat for the year, bodies will not yet be acclimated to the heat which will further increase the risk of heat illness. NWS's new experimental HeatRisk index which takes this acclimation into account has a Moderate to Major Risk of heat impacts during the middle of next week. This means that anyone without effective cooling and/or hydration will be at risk of being affected by the heat in addition to those especially sensitive to heat.

The good news is that there is hope for a respite from the heat before the endless Texas summer settles in with some model guidance brining a front through South Texas next weekend. Currently, CPC has a 60% chance of near-to-below normal temperatures next weekend through 17 May. May the odds be in our favor.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1023 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Currently have MVFR/VFR conditions across all terminals. While we look to largely stay MVFR, some IFR cigs will be possible mainly for eastern sites for a few hours late in the night. CIGS improve during the day on Saturday to at least MVFR, but most sites will return to VFR. Southeasterly winds will gust 20 to 25 knots once again Saturday afternoon. MVFR CIGS will likely start to build back in toward the end of this period.

MARINE
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue this weekend through next week. The persistent onshore flow will result in seas of 3-6 feet continuing.



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 87 75 87 75 / 0 10 30 0 Victoria 86 73 83 73 / 0 30 40 10 Laredo 95 76 91 76 / 10 20 40 0 Alice 90 74 88 74 / 0 20 30 0 Rockport 84 75 84 76 / 0 20 30 10 Cotulla 93 75 90 76 / 10 40 40 0 Kingsville 88 75 87 75 / 0 10 30 0 Navy Corpus 84 76 84 76 / 0 20 30 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Port Lavaca
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Sat -- 01:30 AM CDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:24 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:41 AM CDT     0.77 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:39 PM CDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:34 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:32 PM CDT     0.73 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:03 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Lavaca, Matagorda Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Port O'Connor
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Sat -- 04:23 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:31 AM CDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:08 PM CDT     0.61 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:33 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:02 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:18 PM CDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port O'Connor, Matagorda Bay, Texas, Tide feet

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