Thursday, June21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Hill, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:24AMSunset 8:26PM Thursday June 21, 2018 10:20 AM EDT (14:20 UTC) Moonrise 1:38PMMoonset 1:10AM Illumination 57% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 429 Am Edt Thu Jun 21 2018
Today..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Friday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 429 Am Edt Thu Jun 21 2018
Synopsis..The axis of the atlantic high pressure ridge will remain south of the local waters through the weekend. This will provide a gentle south to southwest wind flow with continued benign sea conditions. However, increasing moisture will bring a return to offshore moving storms in the afternoon and evening beginning today.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Tuesday june 19th. 40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 29 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 9 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Hill, FL
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location: 28.9, -80.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 210828
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
425 am edt Thu jun 21 2018

Discussion
Currently... Convection developing near gainesville is pushing slowly
southeast and may produce outflow that generates additional isolated
showers and storms into areas northwest of i-4 this morning. Will
mention a slight chance of showers and storms through the predawn
and early morning hours for this activity.

Today-tonight... Area will be between ridge axis to the south and
weak low pressure trough to the north. This will produce a westerly
flow in the low levels across east central florida that will
continue to increase moisture and rain chances across the region
today. Pw values forecast to increase to around 2 inches, which will
be more than sufficient for scattered showers and storms to develop
and push slowly east-southeast across the region, mainly through the
afternoon and early evening. Offshore flow will likely be too strong
for the east coast sea breeze to form north of the cape, and even if
it can develop farther south it likely not make it very far inland.

Where the sea breeze can form, it will provide focus for stronger
thunderstorm development along the coast from boundary collisions
late in the day through sunset. Delayed or lack of sea breeze south
of the CAPE may allow highs to reach the mid 90s, but otherwise max
temps are expected to be in the low 90s over much of the area.

Friday-Monday... H50 low over the oh valley lifts NE toward the lower
great lakes Friday then opens up and gets absorbed into a developing
large trough over eastern canada this weekend. This allows mid level
ridge to rebuild over the SE CONUS and into north fl. Surface ridge
responds by lifting very slowly north from the fl straits on Friday
morning, into south fl Saturday, around lake okeechobee Sunday, and
near CAPE canaveral by Monday.

Position of the low level ridge portends sw-wsw surface flow through
this weekend (weakening some on Sunday), then light s-sse on Monday.

Steering winds aloft will be westerly over most of the area Friday
(a little stronger across the north), weaken to a light north-south
drift Saturday, then shift to easterly Sunday-Monday, with a little
faster inland push Sunday.

Wcsb-dominant flow regime westerly steering will favor the eastern
peninsula for scattered diurnal convection Friday, with slightly
higher rain chances shifting progressively inland by Sunday-Monday.

Max temps a degree or two above normal (especially near the coast)
Friday and Saturday, otherwise near normal readings expected as the
ecsb starts to push inland a little farther faster early next week.

Tuesday-Thursday... Mid level ridge over the SE CONUS will build
northward over the eastern CONUS through the mid-late next week.

This results in NE flow developing aloft, which will push a weak
(sort of "back door") mid level trough or vort lobe southward from
the SE seaboard, possible reaching the florida peninsula by Tuesday
night or Wednesday.

There is some disagreement in the global model guidance with the
evolution of this feature, as the GFS actually forms a pretty decent
cutoff h50 low offshore the carolinas, while the ecm is weaker more
progressive. There does seem to be some indication for increasing
rain chances around the middle of next week, especially if guidance
trends toward a stronger trough. However, given how far out in time
this is, don't want to stray too far above climo, and will cap pops
at 50-60 (a little below the consensus blend) for now.

Aviation MainlyVFR through the morning. However convection
developing near gainesville will have to be watched as it shifts
slowly se. Tempo groups for ifr MVFR conditions may be needed for
klee to kdab should this activity hold together through early this
morning. Otherwise best potential for tempo reductions in cig vis
will be into the afternoon and early evening as scattered showers
and storms form and push E SE across the area and offshore.

Marine... Today-tonight... Ridge axis south of the area will produce a
w SW flow across the area, with winds becoming S SE south of the
cape where east coast sea breeze may be able to form later into the
afternoon. Wind speeds will generally remain below 15 knots, with
seas 1-2 feet. However, a greater potential will exist for storms to
shift slowly offshore this afternoon and early evening, producing
gusty winds and locally higher seas.

Friday-Monday... As mentioned earlier, a slow northward drift of the
atlantic ridge axis is expected through early next week. A gentle-
moderate sw-wsw breeze (8-13kt) Friday-Saturday will weaken slightly
to a gentle offshore breeze (5-10kt) Sunday, becoming near the coast
in the afternoon. Flow will back to a ssw-sse breeze by Monday.

Seas generally 2ft or a little less through Sunday night, perhaps
getting up to near 3ft well offshore by Monday. Offshore moving
storms will be the main marine concern through Saturday, especially
so on Friday. As alluded to yesterday, these chances will be highest
north of CAPE canaveral, given the strongest component to the mean
offshore flow will be over that area.

Hydrology The st johns river above lake harney near geneva is
forecast to remain fairly steady at current levels, staying above
action stage and below flood stage through late this week and into
the weekend.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 92 76 91 76 50 20 50 30
mco 92 76 92 75 50 20 50 20
mlb 93 76 91 76 50 30 50 30
vrb 93 74 92 75 50 30 50 30
lee 91 76 91 75 50 20 40 20
sfb 92 76 92 75 50 20 50 20
orl 92 76 91 75 50 20 50 20
fpr 92 74 91 75 50 40 50 30

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Short term aviation... Weitlich
long term... .Cristaldi


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41118 25 mi51 min 77°F1 ft
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 36 mi51 min WSW 7 G 11 84°F 85°F1015.7 hPa
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 39 mi58 min 81°F1 ft
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 45 mi41 min SW 9.7 G 12 81°F 82°F1014.2 hPa77°F
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 56 mi96 min WSW 4.1 81°F 1015 hPa79°F

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Smyrna Beach Municipal Airport, FL12 mi31 minWSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F77°F75%1014.2 hPa
Orlando / Sanford Airport, FL22 mi28 minWSW 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy86°F78°F77%1013.5 hPa
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL22 mi28 minWSW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F80°F88%1013.4 hPa

Wind History from EVB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW8SW8SW8W5W5E10SE14SE13SE13SE13W14CalmCalm----------------CalmSW6
1 day agoCalmCalmSW3SE5
G15
E11SE10SE11SE11SE11SE11SE11S6CalmCalm----------------CalmCalm
2 days ago--NE5NE7E7E10E8E8E8SE8SE8SE8SE6SE6Calm----------------CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Ponce De Leon Inlet South, Florida (sub)
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Ponce De Leon Inlet South
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:35 AM EDT     2.77 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:10 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:16 PM EDT     2.71 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:38 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
11.72.32.72.72.41.91.20.60.1-0.100.51.11.82.42.72.62.31.71.10.50.20.1

Tide / Current Tables for Ponce Inlet, Halifax River, Florida
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Ponce Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:51 AM EDT     2.79 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:24 AM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:32 PM EDT     2.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:52 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.91.52.22.62.82.62.11.40.70.2-0.1-00.411.72.32.72.72.41.91.20.70.20.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.