Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Hill, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 5:28PM Thursday December 13, 2018 5:28 PM EST (22:28 UTC) Moonrise 11:46AMMoonset 11:07PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 354 Pm Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas building to 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers in the morning, then slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Sunday..West winds 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Monday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 354 Pm Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Synopsis..Winds will increase out of the south-southeast this evening into tonight as a developing weather system takes shape over the central gulf of mexico. Advisory conditions are forecast beginning tonight over the offshore waters. A cold front preceded by a fast moving band of showers and possibly strong lightning storms will approach the area Friday afternoon into late Friday evening, bringing gusty winds and building seas. A reinforcing front will push through the area Saturday night.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Thursday, december 13th. 46 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 33 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 27 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 19 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 12 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Hill, FL
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location: 28.9, -80.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 132027 cca
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
327 pm est Thu dec 13 2018

Strong to severe storms possible Friday afternoon and evening...

Discussion
Tonight... Se low level flow will gradually strengthen overnight
ahead of surface low pressure developing west of the fl panhandle.

Light shower activity from northern brevard county to the volusia
into late afternoon will transition northward this evening and then
remain over the atlantic overnight. The low level southerly flow
will allow for mild temperatures ranging from the lower 60s across
the interior to the mid to upper 60s for the south coastal beaches.

Friday... A deep upper level trough will transition from east tx to
the lower ms valley into early Friday evening with a 125 kt upper
level jet streak rounding the ascendant side of the upper level
trough. Significant upper divergence and deep layer lift across the
eastern gulf will allow a line of strong convection to develop
across the eastern gulf in the morning and move toward the peninsula
by afternoon. A closed low a 500 mbs will also transition eastward
across la ms with strengthening mid level winds from the SW to 45-50
knots in the afternoon. Short range high resolution guidance
indicates the convective line will reach NRN sections by mid to late
afternoon and then progress toward central sections by late
afternoon and early evening. The risk for severe storms will be
generally north of a kenansville to cocoa line in the mid to late
afternoon and evening. Damaging winds may accompany the strongest
storms with bowing segments and there will also be a very low risk
for tornado development where low level helicity will be maximized
across the north from late afternoon into the evening. Locally heavy
rainfall amounts to 1-2 inches will be possible across NRN central
sections. Will range pops from 60-80 north 40-60 central and 20-30
far southern sections where convection may hold off for the far
southern counties until the evening hours. High temperatures will
reach the upper 70s to around 80 northern areas and 81-83 degs
across the southern half of east central fl.

Friday night... Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing late Friday
evening into the overnight hours across east central florida. The
window for severe weather (damaging winds, possible tornadoes) will
linger into the evening hours and possibly through midnight, at the
latest. The strongest storms are expected along and north of the i-4
corridor, which is in line with the SPC slight risk for day 2
(Friday). Also, the 12z href model shows higher values of updraft
helicity (a good indicator of potential severe thunderstorms) along
and north of the i-4 corridor, particularly in lake and volusia
counties where we expect the strongest storms to occur. Once the
severe threat diminishes, models soundings show a moist profile
supportive of localized heavy rainfall, and so some areas could see
a few inches of rain before the cold front moves through by Saturday
morning. Muggy conditions will keep temps in the 60s across the area
Friday night into Saturday morning.

Saturday-Saturday night... Showers will linger into Saturday morning,
then begin to dissipate and push offshore in the afternoon as the
surface cold front finally pushes out of the area. Locally, winds
will become westerly as the strong mid-to-upper level low pressure
system moves east over the tennessee valley. Considerable clouds and
at least a small chance for showers will exist through the first
half of the day, particularly over the treasure coast. Afternoon
temps will remain a few degrees above normal before a secondary
front moves across the area Saturday night.

Extended (sun-thu)... The closed low will advance northeast toward
the mid-atlantic on Sunday before merging with northern stream
energy over new england and the canadian maritimes early next week.

Broad high pressure building into the southeast states will generate
pleasant and dry offshore flow into early next week before winds
veer northeast east mid week. Both the ECMWF and GFS advertise
seasonable temps through wed. On thu, small differences in the 500
mb pattern in the GFS and ECMWF produce very different sfc features.

The ECMWF is more progressive with another cut-off upper low and
develops a sfc low in the gulf of mexico. This would produce much
more cloudiness and a chance for showers compared to the slower and
drier gfs. For the new day 7 (thu), will lean toward the ECMWF and
draw a 30 pop with considerable clouds.

Aviation
Scattered shra mainly offshore from ktix-kdab into late afternoon
will continue northward into late evening. Expect mainlyVFR cigs
with some mid-upper level cloudiness into the overnight hours as low
level flow continues to veer to the south by morning. Convection is
expected to move toward NRN terminals in the late afternoon on
Friday from the west. Some strong to severe storms are possible
mainly along and north of a kism-ktix line from 20z-02z. Have
included a tempo tsra group for mco aft 21z based on consensus of
high resolution short range guidance.

Marine
Tonight... Se winds to 15-20 knots offshore this evening will veer to
the south near 20 knots offshore overnight. Will continue advisory
headlines for the offshore waters beyond 20 nm.

Friday... Southerly winds will continue to 16-20 knots nearshore and
up to 20-23 knots offshore. Late afternoon and early evening
convection will affect near shore boaters with locally heavy rain,
gusty winds over 35 knots, and frequent lightning north of sebastian
inlet. Advisory conditions will continue for the offshore waters
which will be hazardous for small craft venturing offshore.

Friday night... Poor to hazardous marine conditions continue as a
cold front approaches the peninsula from the west. High rain chances
along with the potential for severe weather across east central
florida waters through from Friday afternoon through the evening.

Southerly winds increase to near 20 knots with higher gusts ahead of
the front, with seas quickly building to 4-6 feet near, up to 7 feet
well offshore ahead of the frontal passage.

Saturday-Sunday... Wind speeds diminish Saturday morning and become
offshore at 10-15 knots, and seas subside to 4 to 5 feet, with some
6 feet well offshore. Showers linger through the day Saturday with a
slight chance of thunderstorms in the offshore waters. A secondary
front is forecast to push across the waters on Saturday night, thus
pushing any remaining showers out of the area. Winds will be around
10 knots and seas 3-5 feet on Sunday.

Climate High temperatures may come within a few degrees of record
levels at melbourne and vero beach on Friday.

Record high temps...

dab 14-dec 85 1991
mco 14-dec 86 1972
sfb 14-dec 86 2016
mlb 14-dec 85 2015
vrb 14-dec 85 2015
fpr 14-dec 86 1991

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 64 80 65 73 20 70 80 50
mco 63 80 66 74 10 60 80 40
mlb 66 82 68 77 10 50 70 50
vrb 66 83 68 77 10 30 60 50
lee 62 76 64 72 10 80 90 40
sfb 63 79 65 74 10 60 80 40
orl 63 79 65 74 10 60 80 40
fpr 66 83 69 79 10 30 60 50

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 4 am est
Saturday for flagler beach to volusia-brevard county line
20-60 nm-sebastian inlet to jupiter inlet 20-60 nm-volusia-
brevard county line to sebastian inlet 20-60 nm.

Short term aviation... Volkmer
mid term... .Rodriguez
long term dss... Kelly


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 36 mi46 min ENE 5.1 G 8 67°F 66°F1020.4 hPa
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 39 mi58 min 66°F4 ft
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 45 mi38 min SE 18 G 25 75°F 5 ft1019.6 hPa63°F
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 56 mi103 min NE 2.9 65°F 1021 hPa62°F

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Smyrna Beach Municipal Airport, FL12 mi41 minSE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy68°F60°F78%1020.3 hPa
Orlando / Sanford Airport, FL22 mi35 minE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy69°F61°F76%1019.6 hPa
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL22 mi35 minVar 410.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F62°F81%1019.9 hPa

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Last 24hrE6CalmCalmCalmCalm--------------Calm--CalmNE5E5E5SE6SE6SE6SE6--SE6
1 day agoNW5CalmCalmCalmCalm----------------CalmW5W5W4SW3Calm3E6E6E6E6
2 days agoNW8NW7NW7NW7NW7----------------NW7NW7
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Tide / Current Tables for Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside), Florida (2)
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Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside)
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:10 AM EST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:46 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:16 PM EST     2.35 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:50 PM EST     0.65 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:07 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.221.71.30.90.60.50.60.91.31.82.22.32.32.11.71.30.90.70.70.81.11.51.9

Tide / Current Tables for Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside), Florida
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Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside)
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:11 AM EST     0.63 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:46 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:14 PM EST     2.43 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:53 PM EST     0.75 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:07 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.32.11.81.410.80.60.711.41.92.22.42.42.11.81.410.80.70.91.21.61.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.