Sunrise 6:12 AM   Sunset 7:41 PM Moonrise 4:27 AM   Moonset 5:11 PM

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GMZ552 Expires:202405052015;;652181 Fzus54 Klix 050757 Cwflix
coastal waters forecast national weather service new orleans la 257 am cdt Sun may 5 2024
pascagoula to atchafalaya river out to 60 nm
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz550-552-052015- coastal waters from port fourchon la to lower atchafalaya river la out 20 nm- coastal waters from the southwest pass of the mississippi river to port fourchon louisiana out 20 nm- 257 am cdt Sun may 5 2024
Today - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 6 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this morning. Tonight - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 6 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Monday - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 7 seconds. Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 7 seconds. Tuesday - South winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 7 seconds. Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 7 seconds. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 6 seconds. Wednesday night - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: southeast 4 feet at 6 seconds. Thursday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 6 seconds. Thursday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 257 Am Cdt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
high pressure centered off to our east-northeast will provide persistent southeast flow of around 10 to 15 knots through next week. A potential frontal passage may impact the waters later in the week and into the weekend.

FXUS64 KLIX 050449 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1149 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 913 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Public forecast was updated to remove mention of evening showers/storms, as they have dissipated. Traffic cams along Interstate 55 would indicate that lowered visibilities reported in the McComb observation are very limited in areal extent. No other changes at this time.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

The CWA remains along the northern edge of an upper level ridge where the flow is fairly zonal. North/northwest of the local area, the upper level pattern is fairly complex with a couple troughs as well as multiple shortwaves spread across this portion of the country. One of those weak shortwaves, seen on water vapor imagery, is moving northeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley. This feature will play some part in convection the rest of this afternoon/evening by providing some lift. The probably bigger portion of initiation and maintenance comes from instability created by abnormally warm surface temps. Mid 80s to 90 degrees aftn temps, while still cool aloft, and ample moisture at the surface is a pretty textbook early summertime pattern with the potential for afternoon thunderstorms. Although not outlooked by SPC, strong to possibly marginally severe storms with hail and gusty winds will be possible. PW around 1.5" or less will be the biggest limiting factor to convective coverage.

Sunday will be nearly a complete repeat of today with yet another shortwave passing SW to NE across the lower MS Valley. Global models suggest that the trajectory of this trough will be slightly closer to the CWA than the one today. That would aide in small but appreciable increase in coverage over the the CWA However, still looking at pretty much the same area of impact...SW MS and areas of SELA northwest of an Gonzales to Bogalusa line. Probably won't see much, if any, convection southeast of that line.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

The upper level flow pattern along the Gulf Coast will be somewhat zonal Monday before the ridge centered south of the local area expands across the northern Gulf Coast and across portions of the southeastern US. This will provide subsidence to stunt convection as well as moderate already above normal temps. Guidance spread is surprisingly minimal mid week when forecast temps are in the lower to mid 90s. Normal highs this time of year are in the lower 80s with records in the low 90s. So pretty likely to see some records broken. Forecast heat indices peak in the mid 90s to 100 degrees Wed/Thu. Although not nearly warm enough for heat advisory criteria, early summer heat often catches people off guard and could see some local heat related impacts.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

The only ongoing flight restrictions are MVFR to IFR visibilities at KMCB, where evening rainfall occurred. Those conditions could deteriorate further toward sunrise, with LIFR or VLIFR conditions at least possible, although probabilities aren't particularly high. At remaining terminals, anticipate MVFR to potentially IFR conditions to redevelop around 10z, with conditions improving somewhat between 14-15z.

The forecast scenario for the daytime hours Sunday is going to look a lot like Saturday. Another shortwave is expected to slide overtop the ridging over the Gulf. That will probably produce scattered SHRA/TSRA again, potentially as early as 15z near KBTR.
Probabilities are high enough to mention again at KBTR/KMCB/KHDC.
While the threat isn't zero at remaining terminals, it is too low to mention in the body of the forecast. Similar to the last couple days, as well, convection should dissipate prior to sunset Sunday.
VFR conditions are anticipated during the evening hours Sunday.

MARINE
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Surface ridge centered east of the region and extending across the Gulf of Mexico will maintain southeasterly winds. Small variations in the pressure gradient from day to day will result in fluctuations in wind speeds and seas but generally expecting around 10 to 15kts through next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 65 84 66 84 / 20 50 10 30 BTR 69 88 70 88 / 10 50 10 30 ASD 69 87 70 87 / 10 20 10 20 MSY 72 86 73 87 / 10 20 10 20 GPT 70 85 71 84 / 10 10 0 10 PQL 67 87 69 86 / 10 10 0 10

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Southwest Pass
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Sun -- 04:27 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:12 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:26 AM CDT     0.90 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:02 PM CDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:10 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:36 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Southwest Pass, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana (2), Tide feet

Joseph Bayou
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Sun -- 04:27 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:11 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:28 AM CDT     0.97 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:58 PM CDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:10 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:35 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Joseph Bayou, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

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