Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Quintana, TX
May 16, 2024 6:14 AM CDT (11:14 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:27 AM Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 1:12 PM Moonset 1:44 AM |
GMZ355 Expires:202405162045;;296108 Fzus54 Khgx 160743 Cwfhgx
coastal waters forecast for texas national weather service houston/galveston tx 243 am cdt Thu may 16 2024
upper texas coastal waters from high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nautical miles including galveston and matagorda bays.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz350-355-162045- coastal waters from freeport to matagorda ship channel tx out 20 nm-coastal waters from high island to freeport tx out 20 nm- 243 am cdt Thu may 16 2024
.small craft should exercise caution - .
Today - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Wave detail: southeast 4 feet at 5 seconds. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms early this morning, then a chance of Thunderstorms late this morning and afternoon.
Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Wave detail: southeast 4 feet at 5 seconds. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms until early morning, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late.
Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, backing to southeast late. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 5 seconds. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon.
Friday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening.
Saturday - Southeast winds around 5 knots. Seas around 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 4 seconds and southeast 3 feet at 7 seconds.
Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 7 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds.
Sunday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 3 feet.
Sunday night and Monday - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas around 3 feet.
Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.
coastal waters forecast for texas national weather service houston/galveston tx 243 am cdt Thu may 16 2024
upper texas coastal waters from high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nautical miles including galveston and matagorda bays.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz350-355-162045- coastal waters from freeport to matagorda ship channel tx out 20 nm-coastal waters from high island to freeport tx out 20 nm- 243 am cdt Thu may 16 2024
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 243 Am Cdt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
an elevated onshore flow will persist through the end of the week. The exception could be in and around any scattered storms that may impact the waters later today and on into Friday. Highest rain chances are anticipated inland later today and near the coast on Friday. The area still look to be rain free over the weekend and into early next week along with lower winds and seas.
an elevated onshore flow will persist through the end of the week. The exception could be in and around any scattered storms that may impact the waters later today and on into Friday. Highest rain chances are anticipated inland later today and near the coast on Friday. The area still look to be rain free over the weekend and into early next week along with lower winds and seas.
Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 160743 AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 243 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
A mid/upper trough in SW CONUS will push into Texas today, enhancing a mid/upper subtropical jet while increasing large scale lift over our region. This lift will be further enhanced by shortwaves embedded in the jet. Closer to the surface, the trough is enhancing LL vorticity (sfc-850mb) in West Texas this morning. This LL vorticity max / sfc low is expected to propagate eastward, roughly along a warm front that is will to stall somewhere over our central / northern counties. LL shear is likely to increase this afternoon as the LL vort max / sfc low approaches SE TX. HRRR ensemble mean 850MB winds show a southerly LL 25-35 knot jet. Fcst soundings even show ~20 knots of 0-1KM shear by afternoon. The 500MB mean winds increase to 50-70 knots within the aforementioned subtropical jet.
Effective bulk shear by late this afternoon and evening is expected to range from 50-60 knots across our southern counties to as high as 70-80 knots in our northern counties. In addition to volatile shear, LL and ML instability will be increasing throughout the day. ML lapse rates are expected to increase to 7.0-7.5 C/km while sfc based CAPE is forecast to reach 2500-4000 J/kg south of the stalled boundary. Though widely scattered shower/thunderstorm activity is possible during the morning hours today, the primary concern is later in the day when all the aforementioned atmospheric parameters are likely to instigate persistent deep convection near the stalled boundary.
The time frame of concern begins around 2-4PM across our northern CWA This is when most of the CAMs are showing heavy thunderstorm developing on, and moving eastward along, the boundary over our northern counties. The HRRR even suggests the potential of a few embedded supercells. This isn't a huge surprise given the veering wind profile and high bulk shear. Uncertainty exists regarding when this boundary will begin to progress southward. Much of this uncertainty hinges on the fact that the forward motion of the boundary will be at least somewhat dependent on mesoscale cold pool processes.
Despite the uncertainty, the boundary will eventually push southward towards the coast by the evening or overnight hours, taking its rain and thunderstorm activity with it.
Before we get into Friday, let's take a moment to talk about the severe weather and flood risk today and tonight. SPC has upgraded areas north of I-10 to an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) of severe weather while areas farther south are in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5). Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary concern.
However, LL shear parameters suggest some potential for tornadoes as well. WPC has upgraded the excessive rainfall risk to High (Level 4 of 4) across our northern Piney Woods counties while our central counties (north of Harris County) remain in a Moderate (Level 3 of 4) and areas farther south in a Slight (Level 2 of 3). Though widespread rainfall totals north of I-10 are "only" expected to be in the 2-4 inch range, antecedent soil moisture conditions coupled with the prospect of locally much heavier totals have lead to the moderate to high risk across our northern counties. HRRR ensemble max guidance indicate that 6-10 inches of rainfall could occur in locations of training thunderstorms. In addition, it may not take that much rain to result in flooding issues due to wet soils, especially across our Piney Woods counties. Please have multiple ways to receive warnings today and tonight. If you encounter water covered roads, please turn your car around.
The aforementioned boundary is expected to hang around our coastal counties on Friday. Meanwhile, a shortwave embedded in the jet aloft is expected to introduce lift, allowing for the development of showers and thunderstorms. Models vary regarding how much rainfall will occur on Friday. WPC has placed much of our CWA in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall. Some of the guidance suggests potential for heavier showers and thunderstorms near the coast on Friday. Our ~40-50% PoPs at the coast may need to be revised upward in the next update if current model trends continue.
In case you are curious about temperatures, afternoon highs today and tomorrow are expected to be in the 80s. However, some of our northernmost communities could struggle to reach 80 today. Overnight lows are expected to range from the mid 60s in our northernmost counties to low 70s in Houston and mid 70s at the coast. Friday is expected to be another day in the 80s.
Self
LONG TERM
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
This period still looks quiet/dry but increasingly warm/humid. Upper trough axis partly responsible for the end of the week's rain will continue moving eastward and out of our area on Saturday. The state will then be on the northern fringes of upper level ridging for the rest of the weekend and on into the first half of the week. At the surface, high pressure moving east of the area over the weekend will set up a warm and humid onshore flow. High temperatures will respond to these features by warming up generally into an upper 80s to lower 90s range. Low temperatures will respond too by starting out in an upper 60s to lower 70s range on Sunday and Monday and ending up in a lower 70s to upper 70s range on Tuesday and Wednesday. Heat index values by Tuesday or Wednesday could end up peaking close to a 103 to 105 degree range. Heat safety precautions should be taken.
42
AVIATION
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Scattered showers/storms will be possible north of I-10 over the next several hours. Light winds, high clouds and VFR conditions can be expected early this morning. MVFR CIGS and isolated showers/storms begin to develop mid Thursday morning into the early afternoon. A complex of thunderstorms will push across the region from northwest to southeast during the late afternoon/evening, bringing periods of IFR VIS/CIGS. These storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, hail and strong wind gusts. There will be a lull in rain chances behind this main complex during the late evening, though isolated showers and storms will be possible during the early morning hours of Friday.
03
MARINE
Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
An elevated onshore flow will persist through the end of the week. The exception could be in and around any scattered storms that may impact the waters later today and on into Friday. Highest rain chances are anticipated inland later today and near the coast on Friday. The area still look to be rain free over the weekend and into early next week along with lower winds and seas.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 80 69 84 68 / 90 60 20 10 Houston (IAH) 83 72 86 71 / 80 70 40 20 Galveston (GLS) 81 75 83 74 / 50 50 40 20
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Friday morning for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-211>213-300-313.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Saturday morning for GMZ350-355-370-375.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 243 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
A mid/upper trough in SW CONUS will push into Texas today, enhancing a mid/upper subtropical jet while increasing large scale lift over our region. This lift will be further enhanced by shortwaves embedded in the jet. Closer to the surface, the trough is enhancing LL vorticity (sfc-850mb) in West Texas this morning. This LL vorticity max / sfc low is expected to propagate eastward, roughly along a warm front that is will to stall somewhere over our central / northern counties. LL shear is likely to increase this afternoon as the LL vort max / sfc low approaches SE TX. HRRR ensemble mean 850MB winds show a southerly LL 25-35 knot jet. Fcst soundings even show ~20 knots of 0-1KM shear by afternoon. The 500MB mean winds increase to 50-70 knots within the aforementioned subtropical jet.
Effective bulk shear by late this afternoon and evening is expected to range from 50-60 knots across our southern counties to as high as 70-80 knots in our northern counties. In addition to volatile shear, LL and ML instability will be increasing throughout the day. ML lapse rates are expected to increase to 7.0-7.5 C/km while sfc based CAPE is forecast to reach 2500-4000 J/kg south of the stalled boundary. Though widely scattered shower/thunderstorm activity is possible during the morning hours today, the primary concern is later in the day when all the aforementioned atmospheric parameters are likely to instigate persistent deep convection near the stalled boundary.
The time frame of concern begins around 2-4PM across our northern CWA This is when most of the CAMs are showing heavy thunderstorm developing on, and moving eastward along, the boundary over our northern counties. The HRRR even suggests the potential of a few embedded supercells. This isn't a huge surprise given the veering wind profile and high bulk shear. Uncertainty exists regarding when this boundary will begin to progress southward. Much of this uncertainty hinges on the fact that the forward motion of the boundary will be at least somewhat dependent on mesoscale cold pool processes.
Despite the uncertainty, the boundary will eventually push southward towards the coast by the evening or overnight hours, taking its rain and thunderstorm activity with it.
Before we get into Friday, let's take a moment to talk about the severe weather and flood risk today and tonight. SPC has upgraded areas north of I-10 to an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) of severe weather while areas farther south are in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5). Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary concern.
However, LL shear parameters suggest some potential for tornadoes as well. WPC has upgraded the excessive rainfall risk to High (Level 4 of 4) across our northern Piney Woods counties while our central counties (north of Harris County) remain in a Moderate (Level 3 of 4) and areas farther south in a Slight (Level 2 of 3). Though widespread rainfall totals north of I-10 are "only" expected to be in the 2-4 inch range, antecedent soil moisture conditions coupled with the prospect of locally much heavier totals have lead to the moderate to high risk across our northern counties. HRRR ensemble max guidance indicate that 6-10 inches of rainfall could occur in locations of training thunderstorms. In addition, it may not take that much rain to result in flooding issues due to wet soils, especially across our Piney Woods counties. Please have multiple ways to receive warnings today and tonight. If you encounter water covered roads, please turn your car around.
The aforementioned boundary is expected to hang around our coastal counties on Friday. Meanwhile, a shortwave embedded in the jet aloft is expected to introduce lift, allowing for the development of showers and thunderstorms. Models vary regarding how much rainfall will occur on Friday. WPC has placed much of our CWA in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall. Some of the guidance suggests potential for heavier showers and thunderstorms near the coast on Friday. Our ~40-50% PoPs at the coast may need to be revised upward in the next update if current model trends continue.
In case you are curious about temperatures, afternoon highs today and tomorrow are expected to be in the 80s. However, some of our northernmost communities could struggle to reach 80 today. Overnight lows are expected to range from the mid 60s in our northernmost counties to low 70s in Houston and mid 70s at the coast. Friday is expected to be another day in the 80s.
Self
LONG TERM
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
This period still looks quiet/dry but increasingly warm/humid. Upper trough axis partly responsible for the end of the week's rain will continue moving eastward and out of our area on Saturday. The state will then be on the northern fringes of upper level ridging for the rest of the weekend and on into the first half of the week. At the surface, high pressure moving east of the area over the weekend will set up a warm and humid onshore flow. High temperatures will respond to these features by warming up generally into an upper 80s to lower 90s range. Low temperatures will respond too by starting out in an upper 60s to lower 70s range on Sunday and Monday and ending up in a lower 70s to upper 70s range on Tuesday and Wednesday. Heat index values by Tuesday or Wednesday could end up peaking close to a 103 to 105 degree range. Heat safety precautions should be taken.
42
AVIATION
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Scattered showers/storms will be possible north of I-10 over the next several hours. Light winds, high clouds and VFR conditions can be expected early this morning. MVFR CIGS and isolated showers/storms begin to develop mid Thursday morning into the early afternoon. A complex of thunderstorms will push across the region from northwest to southeast during the late afternoon/evening, bringing periods of IFR VIS/CIGS. These storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, hail and strong wind gusts. There will be a lull in rain chances behind this main complex during the late evening, though isolated showers and storms will be possible during the early morning hours of Friday.
03
MARINE
Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
An elevated onshore flow will persist through the end of the week. The exception could be in and around any scattered storms that may impact the waters later today and on into Friday. Highest rain chances are anticipated inland later today and near the coast on Friday. The area still look to be rain free over the weekend and into early next week along with lower winds and seas.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 80 69 84 68 / 90 60 20 10 Houston (IAH) 83 72 86 71 / 80 70 40 20 Galveston (GLS) 81 75 83 74 / 50 50 40 20
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Friday morning for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-211>213-300-313.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Saturday morning for GMZ350-355-370-375.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| FPST2 | 1 mi | 57 min | ESE 11G | 78°F | 79°F | 29.73 | ||
| LUIT2 | 13 mi | 57 min | ESE 9.9G | 78°F | 81°F | 29.75 | ||
| GRRT2 | 33 mi | 57 min | ENE 7G | 78°F | 81°F | 29.74 | ||
| EMAT2 | 36 mi | 57 min | ESE 8.9G | 79°F | 81°F | 29.73 | ||
| GTOT2 | 37 mi | 57 min | ESE 8G | 78°F | 81°F | 29.74 | ||
| EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX | 42 mi | 57 min | E 9.9G | 82°F | 82°F | 29.77 | ||
| GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX | 42 mi | 57 min | ESE 9.9G | 78°F | 80°F | 29.75 | ||
| KGVW | 42 mi | 40 min | E 8 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLBX TEXAS GULF COAST RGNL,TX | 14 sm | 21 min | E 03 | 10 sm | Overcast | 72°F | 72°F | 100% | 29.77 |
Freeport Harbor
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:44 AM CDT Moonset
Thu -- 04:55 AM CDT 0.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:28 AM CDT Sunrise
Thu -- 12:30 PM CDT 1.41 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:11 PM CDT Moonrise
Thu -- 07:22 PM CDT 0.89 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:06 PM CDT Sunset
Thu -- 11:48 PM CDT 1.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:44 AM CDT Moonset
Thu -- 04:55 AM CDT 0.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:28 AM CDT Sunrise
Thu -- 12:30 PM CDT 1.41 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:11 PM CDT Moonrise
Thu -- 07:22 PM CDT 0.89 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:06 PM CDT Sunset
Thu -- 11:48 PM CDT 1.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Freeport Harbor, Texas, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1 |
| 1 am |
| 0.8 |
| 2 am |
| 0.6 |
| 3 am |
| 0.5 |
| 4 am |
| 0.4 |
| 5 am |
| 0.3 |
| 6 am |
| 0.4 |
| 7 am |
| 0.5 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 0.8 |
| 10 am |
| 1.1 |
| 11 am |
| 1.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 1 |
| 10 pm |
| 1 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.1 |
Christmas Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:06 AM CDT 0.69 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:43 AM CDT Moonset
Thu -- 06:28 AM CDT Sunrise
Thu -- 08:30 AM CDT 0.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:11 PM CDT Moonrise
Thu -- 03:56 PM CDT 0.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:06 PM CDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:33 PM CDT 0.57 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:06 AM CDT 0.69 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:43 AM CDT Moonset
Thu -- 06:28 AM CDT Sunrise
Thu -- 08:30 AM CDT 0.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:11 PM CDT Moonrise
Thu -- 03:56 PM CDT 0.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:06 PM CDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:33 PM CDT 0.57 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Christmas Point, Christmas Bay, Texas, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.7 |
| 1 am |
| 0.7 |
| 2 am |
| 0.7 |
| 3 am |
| 0.6 |
| 4 am |
| 0.6 |
| 5 am |
| 0.5 |
| 6 am |
| 0.4 |
| 7 am |
| 0.3 |
| 8 am |
| 0.3 |
| 9 am |
| 0.3 |
| 10 am |
| 0.3 |
| 11 am |
| 0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.6 |
Houston/Galveston, TX,
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