Saturday, June24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Quintana, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 8:25PM Saturday June 24, 2017 1:59 AM CDT (06:59 UTC) Moonrise 6:03AMMoonset 8:06PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ355 Coastal Waters From Freeport To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 20 Nm-coastal Waters From High Island To Freeport Out 20 Nm- 1052 Pm Cdt Fri Jun 23 2017
Rest of tonight..South winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday night..East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 1052 Pm Cdt Fri Jun 23 2017
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Moderate southerly winds are expected overnight with seas slowly subsiding. A low but high period swell may continue through the weekend as a front stalls inland. Winds may turn easterly Sunday before becoming southeast again early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Quintana, TX
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location: 28.95, -95.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 240453
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
1153 pm cdt Fri jun 23 2017

Aviation 06z taf
squall line over NE texas should continue to build south with a
strong outflow boundary surging ahead of it. Thunderstorm activity
should be decreasing with outflow surging out ahead of it. Latest
hrrr trends are not handling situation well, but wrf-arw seems to
be continuing its trends from its 12z yesterday to 00z today
model runs. The 12z texas tech WRF was on track but the 18z runs
seems to have convection too far east. New 00z run seems too slow
with the line and none of the models have severe strong convection
over SE texas that is occurring. That said, modified tafs at
kcll kuts kcxo to account for outflow and possible storms timed
around 11-12z. Outflow may become a focus for convection later in
the day so will keep the same timing for afternoon thunderstorm
activity.

Overpeck

Prev discussion issued 920 pm cdt Fri jun 23 2017
discussion...

a cold front was located from near texarkana to just south of
hobbes,nm at 7:00 pm. Storms were developing along and ahead of
the front over southern ar. Water vapor showed an upper low over
the southern gulf of mexico. An elongated moisture axis was
present west and northwest of this low over the central gulf while
a dry area was further west over the upper and middle texas
coastal waters.

The 00z nam12 was pushing the storms over ak southward toward se
texas overnight tonight. However, the model showed a weakening
trend in the storms with very little coverage by the time the
storms reached into the northern portions of the forecast area.

Better chances will occur after mid morning as the front moves in
from the north and the deeper layer moisture over the gulf arrives
from the southeast. The latest models pretty much agree with the
current forecast. Did tweaked the rain chances mainly to take out
the isolated rain chances over the north and add isolated rain
chances over the offshore coastal waters for the rest of this
evening.

40
prev discussion... Issued 629 pm cdt Fri jun 23 2017
aviation... 00z taf
surface analysis has cold front boundary from arkansas along the
red river to west texas. This has allowed for a line of storms to
form in arkansas. Warm sector airmass over much of texas south of
the boundary remains relatively capped except for west texas.

Tonight we need to monitor the evolution of the convection
organizing in arkansas. The 12z wrf-arw and tx tech wrf-arw both
show this line of storms pushing south and even southwest towards
kcll to kuts by 06-09z Saturday. The kcll kuts kcxo tafs may need
to be adjusted for this evolution but will wait and see for now.

Outflow may play a role in tomorrow's convection for the area but
for now these models do not show much redevelopment of storms
until the afternoon like most other models. The tx tech WRF does
start storms around 16-17z along the coast so may need to adjust
the vcts used in the tafs for 18z. Hrrr is less robust with the
outflow and any storms redeveloping but still need to watch its
trends.

Otherwise tafs will be close to the previous 18z update with MVFR
ceilings overnight and mention of showers starting in the morning
hours turning to vcts.

Overpeck
prev discussion... Issued 342 pm cdt Fri jun 23 2017
discussion...

a hot afternoon is well underway for southeast texas with 3 pm cdt
temperatures in the low to mid 90s inland and heat index values
ranging from 98 to 107. Visible satellite imagery shows a
scattered to broken stratocumulus deck developing around 4500 feet
and spreading south within an area of isentropic lift on the 310 k
surface. Rap guidance shows this area of lift gradually
translating east over the next few hours (likely as the remnants
of cindy pull farther away from the region), allowing at least
some of these clouds to translate towards the south and east with
it. For those areas lucky to get some shade from these clouds,
temperatures may quickly drop 2-3 degrees and provide some relief
from the heat. Otherwise, cannot rule out a stray shower along the
coast or across the far extreme eastern counties through the
remainder of the day but this would be the exception and not the
rule.

Not much cooling is expected overnight with lows only falling into
the mid 70s to low 80s, but rain chances will increase across the
region on Saturday and Sunday as southeast texas remains situated
in a relative upper level weakness between two ridges. Speed
convergence along the coast Saturday will result in scattered
morning showers, with the northern counties seeing a thunderstorm
complex along an approaching (weak) cold front also during the
morning hours. Regional radar mosaic already shows storms
beginning to develop along this cold front across portions of the
low rolling plains and along the red river, with additional
upscale growth into a thunderstorm complex expected through the
remainder of the afternoon and evening hours as the front pushes
south towards the region.

The cold front looks to make a run for the interstate 10 corridor
through the remainder of the morning hours Saturday, stalling
near or north of it as a sea breeze pushes inland during the late
morning and afternoon hours. Daytime heating and the collision of
both of these boundaries is expected to result in the development
of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms on Saturday,
with greatest coverage centering wherever the boundaries collide
(likely near interstate 10). Convection should wane with loss of
heating by Saturday evening. Another round of morning showers are
expected on Sunday, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms again
developing with daytime heating and likely focusing along
wherever the remnant frontal boundary (or outflow boundaries from
Saturday's convection) is. The front won't have much of an effect
on temperatures but increased clouds on Saturday and Sunday will
keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than today with highs in
the mid 80s to low 90s.

Similar to what the previous forecast noted, storm motions will
be very slow both days (around 5 knots Saturday, 10 knots Sunday)
and this, combined with precipitable water values 1.8-2 inches,
will result in the threat for locally heavy rainfall and the
potential for some localized flood issues as thunderstorms have
the potential to remain nearly stationary before collapsing. Sref
plumes show forecast rain totals generally in the 1-2 inch range
during this time, but would not be surprised to see some isolated
2-3 inch totals occur given the aforementioned environmental
conditions. Will also have to keep an eye on a gusty wind threat
as well on Saturday. Relative humidity progs show drier air
evident over the northwest gulf on afternoon water vapor imagery
working its way into the region from the south southwest. This
drier air would help enhance evaporational cooling, accelerating
downdrafts and creating the potential for gusty winds in stronger
convection on Saturday.

The region remains under this relative weakness in the upper flow
through the middle of the upcoming week, with mainly daytime
shower and thunderstorm chances inland through mid-week.

Expect these chances to gradually decrease early to mid next week
as 500 mb heights increase and atmospheric moisture content drops
a bit. These increasing mid-level heights and decreasing rain
chances will also result in gradually warming temperatures with
highs increasing to near or slightly above normal (low to mid 90s)
by the end of the next work week.

Huffman
marine...

winds are slowly diminishing today, and seas should also come
down with them on a bit of a delay. Though winds may not quite be
at the scec threshold, the lag in waves should justify keeping it
in place into tonight. Going into the weekend and early next week,
light to moderate flow is expected, generally onshore. An
approaching front may back winds slightly to more easterly from
Sunday, but will still be generally onshore. Some stronger winds
may be possible mid to late week.

Tides also remain elevated, and astronomical high tide at around
two feet at galveston are not aiding matters. Another chance at
coastal flooding in vulnerable areas around high tide early
tomorrow morning can't be ruled out. Will hold off on another
coastal flood advisory for now to gauge tidal behavior through low
tide and into the upswing towards high tide.

Luchs

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 77 90 73 87 71 20 40 50 60 30
houston (iah) 78 90 75 87 73 20 70 40 70 40
galveston (gls) 81 88 80 87 78 30 40 20 50 50

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... None.

Discussion... 40
aviation marine... 39


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FCGT2 - 8772447 - USCG Freeport, TX 1 mi42 min SE 9.9 G 11 83°F 86°F1014 hPa
LUIT2 13 mi42 min SSE 9.9 G 12 83°F
SGNT2 20 mi42 min SSE 9.9 G 13 84°F 86°F1012.9 hPa
42043 - GA-252 TABS B 22 mi150 min 12 G 14 72°F 83°F1013.2 hPa
GRRT2 33 mi42 min SE 8 G 11 83°F 86°F1014.1 hPa
EMAT2 36 mi42 min SSE 12 G 15 84°F 86°F1012.7 hPa
GTOT2 37 mi42 min 83°F 83°F
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 42 mi42 min S 11 G 13 83°F 84°F1013.9 hPa
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 42 mi42 min SSE 14 G 15
KXIH 45 mi45 min SSW 12 G 17 82°F 79°F
KBQX 47 mi45 min SSE 16 84°F 84°F

Wind History for USCG Freeport, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Angleton / Lake Jackson, Brazoria County Airport, TX14 mi67 minSSE 510.00 miA Few Clouds83°F80°F91%1013.4 hPa

Wind History from LBX (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Freeport Harbor, Texas
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Freeport Harbor
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:50 AM CDT     1.86 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:24 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:03 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:37 AM CDT     1.39 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:48 PM CDT     1.47 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:23 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:05 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:19 PM CDT     -1.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.5-00.61.11.51.81.91.81.61.51.41.41.41.51.51.41.310.5-0-0.5-1-1.1-1.1

Tide / Current Tables for Christmas Bay, Texas
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Christmas Bay
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:00 AM CDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:23 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:02 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:25 AM CDT     0.95 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:25 PM CDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:45 PM CDT     0.77 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:23 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:05 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.10.10.20.40.50.70.80.90.90.90.50.30.30.40.50.60.70.80.70.60.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.