Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Belleview, FL
May 18, 2024 8:25 AM EDT (12:25 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:33 AM Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 3:02 PM Moonset 2:43 AM |
GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 804 Am Edt Sat May 18 2024
Today - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 3 seconds and southwest 2 feet at 7 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers with isolated Thunderstorms this afternoon.
Tonight - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 4 seconds and southwest 2 feet at 7 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Isolated Thunderstorms. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight.
Sunday - West winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 7 seconds and west 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Numerous showers with isolated Thunderstorms.
Sunday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 7 seconds and west 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Scattered showers with isolated Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 7 seconds and northwest 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night - North winds around 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: north 1 foot at 3 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 7 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Tuesday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Tuesday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Wednesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 804 Am Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis - Winds will remain out of the south and southwest throughout the weekend ahead of a cold front that will push through late on Sunday. A few showers will be possible in our northern waters this afternoon with more widespread shower activity expected Sunday morning and afternoon. Winds will shift more northerly for the start of next week with shower activity staying in the interior part of the state.
Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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FXUS62 KJAX 181038 AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 638 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
New AVIATION
NEAR TERM
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Showers have nearly ended across our area from late night T'storms that moved eastward across the SE GA and the FL/GA state line to the coast and then offshore. Southerly flow, mostly light 5-10 mph with a few higher breezes to 15-20 mph are keeping temperatures warm in the mid 70s with very moist dewpoints around 70 and some low stratus clouds may develop through sunrise over SE GA and inland NE FL.
Today, a compact mid level trough over Ozark Plataea/mid MS valley will progress east through the TN river valley. A cold front will move eastward across the FL panhandle with deep moisture feeding into the area from the Gulf ahead of the front and spur a wave of T'storms that will shift east northeast first across interior SE GA from south GA and the FL panhandle late this morning into midday, with greater uncertainty on T'storm evolution into NE FL later this afternoon, but the The storm prediction center has a Slight risk (category 2 out of 5) for isolated to scattered severe T'storms for SE GA and much of NE FL as many ingredients will be in place including strong deep southwesterly shear values 50-60 knots 0-6km under divergent 250 mb jet streak crossing the deep south. Highs warming into the upper 80s to lower 90s will aid strong instability well ahead of the front and support a threat for gusty winds in excess of 60 mph with more intense cells, hail, and even isolated tornadoes as embedded supercell structures may contain stronger mesocyclones that could promote a tornado or two. With deep moisture, efficient rainfall rates will create localized heavy rainfall amounts that could lead to minor flooding concerns (see hydrology section).
Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies will remain over SE GA with more partly cloudy skies initially over NE FL and thus warmer highs as mentioned. Southwest winds will pin the Atlantic seabreeze to the immediate NE FL coast if not just offshore through much of the afternoon.
Tonight will be moist and muggy with another round of showers and T'storms as the cold front shifts through the area after midnight Lows will be in the low 70s over NE FL and the upper 60s over SE GA with light southwest winds under mostly cloudy skies.
SHORT TERM
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
The aforementioned cool front will slow and stall across NE FL through most of Sunday before a reinforcing frontal boundary slides in from the north Sunday night. Meanwhile aloft, a trough will begin its pivot maneuver across the Florida. Cold air aloft associated with the trough and embedded shortwaves will crank up diurnal instability with higher-end guidance around 1500-2000 j/kg CAPE.
This instability and modest westerly deep shear may result in scattered strong and possibly marginally severe t'storms, with particular focus along the stationary front lying south of I-10 in NE FL. Given the unidirectional flow, the primary concern will be strong outflow winds and small hail - tornadoes are very unlikely.
Showers and storms will fizzle through Sunday night as a cooler, more stable airmass arrives. An additional concern will be training storms along the stalled boundary, which may result in flood concerns particularly at locations south of I-10.
Monday, high pressure will build in from the north, setting up a northeasterly flow regime. Lingering moisture may result in enough daytime instability to initiate isolated to widely scattered showers, maybe an isolated storm, along the I-75 corridor as the Gulf sea breeze attempts an inland push. Again, any daytime activity will fade during the evening Monday.
Combo of showers/storms and cloud cover will limit temps the mid/upper 80s Sunday with a readings trending 3-5 degrees cooler into Monday as the reinforcing front arrives.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
Though there could be a few lingering showers or even an isolated storm across the southern zones Tuesday afternoon, the rest of period should be rain-free as dry airmass tanks PWATs around an inch -- a typical amount for this time of year. Upper ridging will lean in from the west next week, resulting in another increase in temps with highs pushing back into the low 90s. Hot and humid conditions will be the main concern as triple-digit heat index values make another earlier-than-normal appearance.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
12Z TAF period will begin with patchy MVFR ceilings inland with VFR conditions expected after 13Z through late morning. Light southerly flow will turn southwesterly today as a cold front approaches from the Florida panhandle. Thunderstorms will move east northeast from the west and impact SSI primarily 16Z-20Z with some lingering uncertainty in the timing further south into JAX, CRG, GNV, SGJ, and VQQ, but have a primary window from 18Z to 22Z. Have VCTS in effect after 15Z at SSI and after 18/19Z for all other northeast FLorida TAF sites with MVFR restrictions from strong to severe thunderstorms.
Southwest winds today will increase to 10-12 knots and turn more southerly at SGJ from the pinned Atlantic seabreeze with high and mid level cloud cover and low level clouds around 3.5 to 4.0 kft.
Have light rain and VCTS after 22Z to 00Z to follow into tonight for all sites except GNV where a lull is expected until 03Z as a round of showers and storms push back through GNV. By the end of the TAF period, coverage of showers will decrease to VCSH coverage with scattered low clouds 1.5 kft and light west southwest winds 5-8 knots as cold front drags through the coast.
MARINE
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
A slow moving cold front will gradually push across the coastal waters late tonight through Sunday, renewing chances for storms.
Winds will turn northerly as high pressure wedges against a low pressure situated northeast of the waters early next week. High pressure builds directly over the waters during the middle part of next week.
Rip Currents: Low Risk of rip currents at all area beaches today and Sunday.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
While some locally heavy rainfall occurred along the FL/GA state line overnight, much of NE FL recovered very little rain Friday.
With the approach of the cold and expected T'storms later today and again tonight, expecting widespread 1-2 inch totals over SE GA and inland NE FL with locally heavier amounts of 3 inches in isolated locations where more intense storms travel or train over with overall less amounts towards the NE FL coast. Minor flooding is possible in low lying and urban areas and flood prone roads.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 84 68 85 65 / 90 60 60 20 SSI 86 71 85 67 / 60 70 70 30 JAX 92 71 88 67 / 50 70 70 30 SGJ 92 71 88 69 / 40 70 70 40 GNV 90 70 86 66 / 60 60 70 20 OCF 91 72 86 69 / 60 60 70 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 638 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
New AVIATION
NEAR TERM
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Showers have nearly ended across our area from late night T'storms that moved eastward across the SE GA and the FL/GA state line to the coast and then offshore. Southerly flow, mostly light 5-10 mph with a few higher breezes to 15-20 mph are keeping temperatures warm in the mid 70s with very moist dewpoints around 70 and some low stratus clouds may develop through sunrise over SE GA and inland NE FL.
Today, a compact mid level trough over Ozark Plataea/mid MS valley will progress east through the TN river valley. A cold front will move eastward across the FL panhandle with deep moisture feeding into the area from the Gulf ahead of the front and spur a wave of T'storms that will shift east northeast first across interior SE GA from south GA and the FL panhandle late this morning into midday, with greater uncertainty on T'storm evolution into NE FL later this afternoon, but the The storm prediction center has a Slight risk (category 2 out of 5) for isolated to scattered severe T'storms for SE GA and much of NE FL as many ingredients will be in place including strong deep southwesterly shear values 50-60 knots 0-6km under divergent 250 mb jet streak crossing the deep south. Highs warming into the upper 80s to lower 90s will aid strong instability well ahead of the front and support a threat for gusty winds in excess of 60 mph with more intense cells, hail, and even isolated tornadoes as embedded supercell structures may contain stronger mesocyclones that could promote a tornado or two. With deep moisture, efficient rainfall rates will create localized heavy rainfall amounts that could lead to minor flooding concerns (see hydrology section).
Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies will remain over SE GA with more partly cloudy skies initially over NE FL and thus warmer highs as mentioned. Southwest winds will pin the Atlantic seabreeze to the immediate NE FL coast if not just offshore through much of the afternoon.
Tonight will be moist and muggy with another round of showers and T'storms as the cold front shifts through the area after midnight Lows will be in the low 70s over NE FL and the upper 60s over SE GA with light southwest winds under mostly cloudy skies.
SHORT TERM
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
The aforementioned cool front will slow and stall across NE FL through most of Sunday before a reinforcing frontal boundary slides in from the north Sunday night. Meanwhile aloft, a trough will begin its pivot maneuver across the Florida. Cold air aloft associated with the trough and embedded shortwaves will crank up diurnal instability with higher-end guidance around 1500-2000 j/kg CAPE.
This instability and modest westerly deep shear may result in scattered strong and possibly marginally severe t'storms, with particular focus along the stationary front lying south of I-10 in NE FL. Given the unidirectional flow, the primary concern will be strong outflow winds and small hail - tornadoes are very unlikely.
Showers and storms will fizzle through Sunday night as a cooler, more stable airmass arrives. An additional concern will be training storms along the stalled boundary, which may result in flood concerns particularly at locations south of I-10.
Monday, high pressure will build in from the north, setting up a northeasterly flow regime. Lingering moisture may result in enough daytime instability to initiate isolated to widely scattered showers, maybe an isolated storm, along the I-75 corridor as the Gulf sea breeze attempts an inland push. Again, any daytime activity will fade during the evening Monday.
Combo of showers/storms and cloud cover will limit temps the mid/upper 80s Sunday with a readings trending 3-5 degrees cooler into Monday as the reinforcing front arrives.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
Though there could be a few lingering showers or even an isolated storm across the southern zones Tuesday afternoon, the rest of period should be rain-free as dry airmass tanks PWATs around an inch -- a typical amount for this time of year. Upper ridging will lean in from the west next week, resulting in another increase in temps with highs pushing back into the low 90s. Hot and humid conditions will be the main concern as triple-digit heat index values make another earlier-than-normal appearance.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
12Z TAF period will begin with patchy MVFR ceilings inland with VFR conditions expected after 13Z through late morning. Light southerly flow will turn southwesterly today as a cold front approaches from the Florida panhandle. Thunderstorms will move east northeast from the west and impact SSI primarily 16Z-20Z with some lingering uncertainty in the timing further south into JAX, CRG, GNV, SGJ, and VQQ, but have a primary window from 18Z to 22Z. Have VCTS in effect after 15Z at SSI and after 18/19Z for all other northeast FLorida TAF sites with MVFR restrictions from strong to severe thunderstorms.
Southwest winds today will increase to 10-12 knots and turn more southerly at SGJ from the pinned Atlantic seabreeze with high and mid level cloud cover and low level clouds around 3.5 to 4.0 kft.
Have light rain and VCTS after 22Z to 00Z to follow into tonight for all sites except GNV where a lull is expected until 03Z as a round of showers and storms push back through GNV. By the end of the TAF period, coverage of showers will decrease to VCSH coverage with scattered low clouds 1.5 kft and light west southwest winds 5-8 knots as cold front drags through the coast.
MARINE
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
A slow moving cold front will gradually push across the coastal waters late tonight through Sunday, renewing chances for storms.
Winds will turn northerly as high pressure wedges against a low pressure situated northeast of the waters early next week. High pressure builds directly over the waters during the middle part of next week.
Rip Currents: Low Risk of rip currents at all area beaches today and Sunday.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
While some locally heavy rainfall occurred along the FL/GA state line overnight, much of NE FL recovered very little rain Friday.
With the approach of the cold and expected T'storms later today and again tonight, expecting widespread 1-2 inch totals over SE GA and inland NE FL with locally heavier amounts of 3 inches in isolated locations where more intense storms travel or train over with overall less amounts towards the NE FL coast. Minor flooding is possible in low lying and urban areas and flood prone roads.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 84 68 85 65 / 90 60 60 20 SSI 86 71 85 67 / 60 70 70 30 JAX 92 71 88 67 / 50 70 70 30 SGJ 92 71 88 69 / 40 70 70 40 GNV 90 70 86 66 / 60 60 70 20 OCF 91 72 86 69 / 60 60 70 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KOCF OCALA INTLJIM TAYLOR FIELD,FL | 16 sm | 34 min | S 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 75°F | 73°F | 94% | 29.94 | |
| KLEE LEESBURG INTL,FL | 17 sm | 32 min | SSW 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 79°F | 73°F | 84% | 29.95 | |
| KINF INVERNESS,FL | 20 sm | 30 min | S 06 | 5 sm | Clear | Mist | 73°F | 73°F | 100% | 29.95 |
Kings Bay
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:02 AM EDT 1.65 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:45 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 06:37 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 08:11 AM EDT 0.66 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:34 PM EDT 1.65 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:04 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 08:16 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 08:38 PM EDT 0.53 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:02 AM EDT 1.65 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:45 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 06:37 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 08:11 AM EDT 0.66 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:34 PM EDT 1.65 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:04 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 08:16 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 08:38 PM EDT 0.53 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Kings Bay, Crystal River, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.6 |
| 1 am |
| 1.6 |
| 2 am |
| 1.6 |
| 3 am |
| 1.5 |
| 4 am |
| 1.3 |
| 5 am |
| 1.2 |
| 6 am |
| 1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.8 |
| 8 am |
| 0.7 |
| 9 am |
| 0.7 |
| 10 am |
| 0.9 |
| 11 am |
| 1.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 1 |
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Crystal River, Kings Bay, Florida, Tide feet
Melbourne, FL,
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