Friday, January19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
New Smyrna Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 5:53PM Friday January 19, 2018 6:30 AM EST (11:30 UTC) Moonrise 8:57AMMoonset 8:18PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 430 Am Est Fri Jan 19 2018
Today..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 10 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tonight..East winds 5 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 10 seconds. Smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 10 seconds. Smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 5 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Smooth on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Monday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 430 Am Est Fri Jan 19 2018
Synopsis..High pressure over the deep south will elongate and shift eastward into the atlantic through this weekend. A gentle north breeze will veer onshore today and Saturday. Winds freshen slightly early next week as a gentle to moderate easterly breeze Sunday becomes southeast Monday. A weak cool front will approach the local atlantic waters on Tuesday.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Thursday january 18th. 41 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 31 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 27 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 18 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 12 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Smyrna Beach, FL
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location: 29.02, -80.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 190919
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
415 am est Fri jan 19 2018

Discussion
Temperatures will gradually warm up through this weekend... .

Current... Cold surface high covers the deep south early this morning
with the ridge axis extending along the gulf coast from texas to
south ga north fl. Temps have fallen below freezing across sheltered
areas NW of i-4, with some u20s noted over north lake and NW volusia
counties. Temps transition to u30s-l40s farther south and east. Skc
save for some thin high clouds stream overhead. The unusually cold
shelf water temps really eroded late afternoon early evening attempt
at onshore advection of marine clouds, and the western edge remains
well offshore at this time. The timing and placement of the freeze
warning north and frost advisory south through 8 am look fine.

Today-tonight... Surface ridge center will drift ese from the eastern
gulf coast across north florida and into the atlantic over the next
h24. As this occurs an amplified positive tilt short wave trough
will drift eastward from texas to la ms-nw gomex. As surface winds
continue to veer to ne-ene and slacken, the flow aloft will back to
sw with increasing h50-h20 in high level rh values. This should
cause some increase in high clouds, while modest onshore advection
of marine sc occurs, mainly over the treasure coast counties. Maxes
will rise into the 60s areawide save for parts of immediate coastal
volusia county (u50s) as light onshore flow combines with shelf water
temps in the l50s to hold readings down some there.

While onshore flow in the afternoon modifies dew points to where
mins won't be as cold tonight, expect widespread 40s for mins, with
some u30s over rural north lake NW volusia as under light to calm
winds.

Saturday-Sunday... Surface high pressure is forecast to shift over
the peninsula and into the western atlantic, allowing winds, though
light, to gradually veer to the E SE with time. Considerable mid and
upper level clouds are expected on Saturday out ahead of short wave
energy transiting the deep south. Guidance tries to produce some
light precip as the short wave passes overhead, but a glance at
forecast soundings indicates considerable dry air lingering just
above the surface. Will continue to undercut MOS guidance and keep
most areas precip-free this weekend. Steady modification of the
local airmass during the period will lead to a slow climb in
temperatures, but it should be noted that the abnormally cool
atlantic shelf waters will keep highs down along the coast,
especially north of sebastian inlet.

Monday-Thursday... A longwave trough over the central CONUS is
forecast to lift toward new england early next week, largely
abandoning its surface front over the deep south. Warm southerly
flow out ahead of the front will bring above normal temperatures
areawide, with 80 possible Monday afternoon across the interior. The
front will sag down the peninsula Tuesday with little more than an
increase in cloud cover and a shower or two. Temps will trend closer
to normal by mid week as winds shift out of the N NE behind the
boundary. By late in the week, uncertainty builds with the gfs
indicating weak low pressure transiting the gulf and the ecmwf
maintaining drier E NE flow. Sided with the ECMWF and its ensemble
members, significantly undercutting MOS guidance on Thursday.

Aviation Vfr. Could see some brief CIGS bkn030-035 from kvrb-ksua
today, however expect these to scatter out to a large extent given
how cold the ocean temps remain.

Marine
Today-tonight... Nwps seems to be underdoing the rate of decay in
seas once again as 3-4ft seas near shore and 5-6ft offshore prior to
sunrise will subside to 3-5ft today and 2-4ft tonight as the surface
high pressure ridge drifts across north fl. Winds will slacken to
less than 10kt out of the ne-e.

Sat-sun... High pressure shifts over the peninsula and into the
western atlantic this weekend. Winds shift from the NE on Saturday
to the E SE Sunday while remaining 10-15 knots. Seas 2-3 feet over
the shelf waters, 3-4 feet offshore and in the gulf stream.

Mon-tue... Winds veer to the south on Monday ahead of a weakening
cold front which will sag down the waters on Tuesday. Winds expected
to remain at or below 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

Fire weather
This afternoon... Expect min rh values to drop below 20-30 percent
from the i-4 corridor to the ocala forest and 30-35 percent a bit
farther S E from around the saint johns river to lake kissimmee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 59 43 63 52 0 0 10 10
mco 63 45 69 54 0 0 10 10
mlb 63 48 68 57 0 0 10 10
vrb 64 49 69 58 10 10 10 10
lee 62 42 68 51 0 0 10 10
sfb 62 43 67 52 0 0 10 10
orl 63 45 68 53 0 0 10 10
fpr 65 49 69 58 10 10 10 10

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... Freeze warning until 8 am est this morning for coastal volusia
county-inland volusia county-northern lake county-orange-
seminole-southern lake county.

Frost advisory until 8 am est this morning for indian river-
northern brevard county-okeechobee-osceola-southern brevard
county-st. Lucie.

Am... None.

Short term aviation... Cristaldi
long term impact wx... Ulrich


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41118 33 mi60 min 3 ft
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 45 mi42 min NNW 11 G 13 45°F 60°F1027.9 hPa
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 47 mi105 min W 2.9 32°F 1030 hPa28°F
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 47 mi37 min 59°F2 ft
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 52 mi40 min NNW 16 G 19 58°F 70°F5 ft1025.5 hPa50°F

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL14 mi37 minNW 510.00 miFair36°F30°F82%1027.5 hPa
Orlando / Sanford Airport, FL24 mi37 minN 410.00 miFair33°F28°F85%1027.2 hPa

Wind History from EVB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------W7NW7N7--N15
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----CalmCalmCalm
1 day ago----------------CalmCalmCalmCalmW4NW7W10
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2 days ago----------------NW4N6N8N9N10N10N10N12
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N7N7CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Ponce De Leon Inlet South, Florida (sub)
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Ponce De Leon Inlet South
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:38 AM EST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:56 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:53 AM EST     2.67 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:03 PM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:51 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:18 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 10:04 PM EST     2.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.40.80.2-0.2-0.20.10.71.422.52.72.51.91.20.60.200.20.61.21.82.22.52.3

Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach Shores, Sunglow Pier, Florida
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Daytona Beach Shores
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:51 AM EST     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:56 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:18 AM EST     3.92 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:28 PM EST     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:51 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:18 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:30 PM EST     3.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.50.5-0.1-0.30.111.92.83.53.93.83.32.31.20.3-0.2-0.10.51.32.233.43.43

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.