Friday, December15, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
New Smyrna Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 5:29PM Friday December 15, 2017 6:47 PM EST (23:47 UTC) Moonrise 4:42AMMoonset 3:58PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ570 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 20-60 Nm- 247 Pm Est Fri Dec 15 2017
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 10 seconds.
Saturday..North winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 10 seconds.
Saturday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 10 seconds.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 5 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Slight chance of showers.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 247 Pm Est Fri Dec 15 2017
Synopsis..A weak cold front will sag through central florida tonight as it heads toward south florida for Saturday. High pressure north of florida this weekend will shift seaward over the western atlantic with a trailing ridge axis extending back across the florida peninsula early next week. Local winds will shift northwest to north behind the front tonight, then northeast for Saturday, becoming east to southeast for Sunday. Winds and seas will be well-below cautionary levels.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Wednesday december 13th. 40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 31 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 28 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 20 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 14 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Smyrna Beach, FL
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location: 29.02, -80.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 151909
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
209 pm est Fri dec 15 2017

Discussion
Tonight sat... Satellite reveals meager multi-deck cloudiness
ahead of an approaching weakening frontal boundary across the
forecast area. The pre-frontal environment has been less than
dramatic and minimally productive, even regarding cloud cover.

Expect the front to transition south through central fl overnight
with pops too low to mention. Winds will turn out of the north
behind the boundary, but without a big post-frontal rush. Min
temps will generally be in the 50s. By sat, strong high pressure
will build over the deep south to futher facilitate a veering of
the surface winds out of the northeast, even as the high pressure
center slides seaward off the carolina coast. Thus, only slightly
cooler with MAX temps in the u60s m70s distributed n-s.

Sat night-sun night... Surface high pressure will push off of the
southeast u.S. Coast and into the western atlc. The associated
east-west oriented ridge axis will drop into north fl by daybreak
mon morning. Initial ene NE flow will veer to E early on sun,
then southeast by late afternoon Sun evening. Wind speeds
generally light as a weak pressure gradient will be in place.

Conditions expected to remain dry. Pwat values will flirt on
either side of one inch with deepest moisture northward as a weak
low pressure system tries to organize across the gulf coast
states. Further aloft the flow remains mainly zonal as mid-level
high pressure ridging remains in control, centered near the
bahamas. All short-wave troughing or decent energy impulses remain
north of the region.

Lows Sun will be in the 50s, except low to mid 60s immediate
treasure coast. Highs Sun will warm into the upper 70s, except mid
70s volusia coast. Lows Sun overnight into Mon morning will be mild
and in the u50s l60s, except m60s immediate space treasure coasts.

Mon-fri... (from previous discussion) 00z gfs ECMWF are in
reasonable agreement early next week showing mid level ridge over
fl straits cuba. This will keep warm dry conditions across the
forecast area through Tue as deeper moisture gets steered around
the ridge to the north of the area. Above normal high temps
expected to reach the lower 80s both days. Then model solutions
diverge mid week when the GFS shows the next front reaching
central fl Wed while the ECMWF keeps the front to our north and
continues the warm dry weather thru thu. The difference is
attributed to how each model ejects an upper low over the desert
sw across the southern us. The GFS is more potent with the short
wave, weakening the ridge aloft which allows the front to make
more of a southward push. Using a model blend produces token 20
pops for wed- thu. Since the model guidance is not in agreement
here, there is considerable uncertainty in the forecast but
confidence should increase in the next couple days.

Aviation Vfr with SW wsw winds around 10 kt gradually becoming
light and more westerly northwesterly late this evening and
eventually northerly overnight tonight. Winds will continue to veer
to the nne NE Saturday morning into the afternoon.

Marine
Tonight-sat... Offshore flow around 10 knots (10-15 knots well-
offshore) will continue through sunset ahead of an approaching
weakening frontal boundary currently over north fl which is slowly
making southward progress. As this boundary transitions southward
over the forecast waters, a brief passing shower may occur. Then
overnight winds will turn out of the north behind the front,
remaining 15 knots or less. Seas will range from 1-3 feet, but an
area of 3 foot seas will expand particularly over the gulf stream.

Local winds will veer to the northeast for sat. Seas will be 15
knots or less and seas 2-3 feet.

Sat night-wed... Surface high pressure will move off of the
southeast u.S. Coast and into the western atlc as northeast winds
veer to the east by early sun, then southeast by late sun
afternoon night, southerly by Mon evening, finally ssw on Tue as
an east-west ridge axis lies across the central peninsula. A cold
front approaches from the north on wed, but there remains
disagreement between medium range models on just when it will move
south from north fl. Wind speeds generally 6-12 kts. Seas 2-3
feet favoring comfortable small craft boating conditions.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 53 65 55 74 0 0 0 0
mco 53 71 54 79 0 0 0 0
mlb 57 71 60 77 0 0 0 0
vrb 57 73 61 78 0 0 0 0
lee 51 69 52 77 0 0 0 0
sfb 52 69 54 77 0 0 0 0
orl 53 70 54 78 0 0 0 0
fpr 57 74 62 78 0 0 0 0

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Short term... Ds
long term... .Ts
aviation... Jc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41118 33 mi48 min 65°F1 ft
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 45 mi48 min SW 4.1 G 4.1 70°F 68°F1020 hPa (+1.1)
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 47 mi63 min SW 1 65°F 1020 hPa58°F
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 47 mi55 min 68°F1 ft
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 52 mi38 min SSW 9.7 G 12 73°F 77°F1018.5 hPa61°F

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Smyrna Beach Municipal Airport, FL4 mi61 minW 510.00 miA Few Clouds68°F50°F53%1018.6 hPa
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL14 mi55 minWSW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F57°F71%1018.4 hPa
Ormond Beach, Ormond Beach Municipal Airport, FL22 mi58 minN 010.00 miClear66°F55°F68%1018.3 hPa
Orlando / Sanford Airport, FL24 mi55 minW 710.00 miFair68°F48°F51%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from EVB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalm----------------CalmCalmSW7SW8SW8SW8SW9SW14
G17
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W5
1 day agoCalmCalmW3Calm----------------CalmSW6SW6SW6W7W9W8W8W8W5W5Calm
2 days agoW13W8W8W8----------------NW5CalmNW7NW10NW7NW5NW5NW5W10NW10W7Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Ponce De Leon Inlet South, Florida (sub)
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Ponce De Leon Inlet South
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:11 AM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:25 AM EST     2.96 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:38 PM EST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:57 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:29 PM EST     2.78 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
00.10.61.31.92.62.92.92.621.30.70.40.30.71.21.82.42.72.72.41.91.20.5

Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach Shores, Sunglow Pier, Florida
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Daytona Beach Shores
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:47 AM EST     4.11 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:02 PM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:57 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:56 PM EST     3.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-00.61.52.53.33.94.13.832.11.10.3-00.20.91.82.73.43.63.32.71.80.90.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.