Thursday, May24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
New Smyrna Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 8:15PM Thursday May 24, 2018 7:27 PM EDT (23:27 UTC) Moonrise 2:45PMMoonset 2:31AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ570 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 20-60 Nm- 405 Pm Edt Thu May 24 2018
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 20 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..South winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 405 Pm Edt Thu May 24 2018
Synopsis..The axis of the atlantic high pressure ridge will sag southward across north florida through Friday night, resulting in a weakening east to southeast breeze across local waters. Boating conditions will then deteriorate over memorial day weekend, with the development and northward movement of a tropical low pressure system over the eastern gulf of mexico. Expect increasing winds and building seas, with increasing chances for squally showers and isolated lightning storms.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 21st. 38 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 28 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 14 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 8 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Smyrna Beach, FL
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location: 29.02, -80.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 241945
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
345 pm edt Thu may 24 2018

Discussion
Locally heavy rainfall expected over the holiday weekend...

tonight... Low level ese will veer to the SE overnight with late
afternoon convection moving across western portions of east central
fl into early evening. Will continue a low shower chance for lake
county past 8 pm. Short range guidance indicates an increase in
deeper moisture over the atlantic and an uptick in SE flow to near
15 knots at the surface. This should allow regeneration of showers
and isolated storms across the atlantic some which will move onshore
along the coast during the late night hours.

Friday... An area of deeper moisture will lift northward with low
level southeast flow. Pwats will range from 1.8-1.9 across the
northern counties and 1.9-2.0 inches across the south. A weak
inverted trough in the low levels and developing slightly stronger
low level SE flow should support scattered to numerous showers and
isolated storms moving northwestward with the highest coverage
expected across the SRN interior. Highs will range from the mid 80s
south to upper 80s across NRN interior sections.

Late week weekend (modified)... Developing low pressure is forecast
to slowly emerge over the southern gulf of mex from the yucatan area
by late Friday and track nwd over the central to eastern gulf
through Sunday. Guidance continues to vary with GFS indicating most
eastward track compared to consensus, though 12z GFS has trended
much closer to recent ECMWF model runs. With NHC giving the
disturbance a 90 percent likelihood of becoming a named system over
the next 5 days adt'l monitoring for severe weather potential other
than expected heavy rains will be necessary should the actual track
become closer to the peninsula this holiday weekend. Rain chances
mainly in the likely range Saturday will become categorical near 80
percent Sunday. Locally heavy rainfall is expected with showers and
storms Saturday, into Sunday and memorial day.

With this most favored wet season forecast regime continuing over
already rain soaked grounds in many places. A flood watch will be
likely for portions of east central fl by late this week.

Extended... From Tuesday through midweek a minimum of sct coverage of
showers and storms will continue with sly flow pattern indicated and
plenty of available moisture to generate diurnally forced pcpn. Rain
soaked grounds will continue to bring a sensitive period well into
next week depending on where the daily rain potential becomes
focused due to boundaries interaction and locations of heavy rain.

Aviation
Shower activity is shaping up like yesterday with lower coverage,
especially across the northern areas. A line of showers did develop
along the sea breeze earlier today in the treasure coast from kvrb-
ksua, but those showers have since moved inland. Coastal terminals
should remain mostly clear this afternoon, although a stray shower
is still possible along the treasure coast. I am keeping vcsh at all
terminals through 24 24z due to isolated showers moving onshore
along the coast or developing over inland areas. Removed vcts from
the interior tafs due to lower probability of storms this afternoon.

Hrrr and local WRF models indicate any shower activity should
dissipate after sunset andVFR conditions will prevail through
Friday morning. With higher rain chances in the forecast we should
see higher coverage of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
Friday afternoon. Gusty conditions are also possible on Friday after
25 14z, mainly from kmlb-ksua.

Marine
Tonight... Southeast winds near 10 knots will increase to 10-15 knots
offshore overnight with scattered showers and isolated storms
redeveloping across the waters through the late night hours. Seas
will range from 2-3 ft nearshore to 3-4 ft offshore.

Friday... Southeast winds at 10-15 knots in the morning will increase
to 15 knots in the afternoon with deeper tropical moisture moving
northward across the into the afternoon. Expect scattered showers
and storms. Seas 2-3 ft near shore to 3-4 ft offshore.

Late week weekend... Winds and seas are forecast to increase fri
night and into Sat with the likelihood of headlines for hazardous
wind and sea states over most if not all of the waters this weekend.

Should the gulf system approach closer to the state then presently
forecast higher winds and seas will be likely.

Extended... Improving conditions from around Tuesday onward next week
are anticipated as gradient winds diminish along with swell.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 72 83 70 83 20 40 20 40
mco 72 87 71 82 10 50 30 60
mlb 74 84 74 81 30 50 30 60
vrb 73 83 72 82 40 50 40 60
lee 73 88 71 82 20 60 30 60
sfb 72 87 70 82 10 50 20 60
orl 73 88 70 82 10 50 30 60
fpr 72 83 73 81 40 50 40 70

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Volkmer ulrich combs rodriguez


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41118 33 mi57 min 79°F2 ft
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 45 mi39 min ESE 6 G 11 80°F 81°F1018.8 hPa
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 47 mi102 min ESE 8.9 82°F 1019 hPa73°F
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 47 mi34 min 80°F2 ft
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 52 mi37 min SE 9.7 G 12 79°F 79°F2 ft1017.7 hPa73°F

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Smyrna Beach Municipal Airport, FL4 mi40 minE 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F71°F70%1017.6 hPa
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL14 mi34 minE 710.00 miA Few Clouds81°F72°F74%1017.1 hPa
Ormond Beach, Ormond Beach Municipal Airport, FL22 mi37 minESE 8 G 147.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F71°F74%1017.3 hPa
Orlando / Sanford Airport, FL24 mi34 minESE 1310.00 miPartly Cloudy85°F70°F61%1016.4 hPa

Wind History from EVB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE10CalmSE3----------------CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE6E8E8E10E10E10--E10
1 day agoCalmCalmCalm----------------CalmCalmSE5SE5SE5E8E10E10E10E10E10SE12SE10
2 days agoSE7SE7Calm----------------SE6SE7SE8SE9S10
G15
CalmS9S9SE7S6S6CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Ponce De Leon Inlet South, Florida (sub)
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Ponce De Leon Inlet South
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:04 AM EDT     2.81 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:32 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:41 PM EDT     2.84 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.81.422.62.82.72.21.60.90.3-0-00.411.62.32.72.82.621.40.70.2

Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach Shores, Sunglow Pier, Florida
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Daytona Beach Shores
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:24 AM EDT     4.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:39 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:05 PM EDT     4.41 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:14 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.22.13.13.84.24.23.72.81.80.80.20.10.61.42.53.44.14.44.23.62.71.70.80.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.