Thursday, February21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Surfside Beach, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 6:16PM Thursday February 21, 2019 4:09 PM CST (22:09 UTC) Moonrise 8:47PMMoonset 8:32AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ355 Expires:201902220830;;296286 Fzus54 Khgx 212004 Aaa Cwfhgx Coastal Waters Forecast...updated National Weather Service Houston/galveston Tx 204 Pm Cst Thu Feb 21 2019 Upper Texas Coastal Waters From High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves. Gmz350-355-220830- Coastal Waters From Freeport To Matagorda Ship Channel Tx Out 20 Nm-coastal Waters From High Island To Freeport Tx Out 20 Nm- 204 Pm Cst Thu Feb 21 2019
.dense fog advisory in effect until 9 am cst Friday...
.small craft should exercise caution...
Rest of today..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Patchy dense fog. A chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Patchy fog. A slight chance of showers in the evening. Isolated Thunderstorms. A chance of showers after midnight.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Patchy fog. A chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Patchy fog. A slight chance of showers in the evening. Isolated Thunderstorms. A chance of showers after midnight.
Saturday..South winds around 15 knots becoming west in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Patchy fog. A chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A chance of showers.
Monday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Showers likely and isolated Thunderstorms.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 204 Pm Cst Thu Feb 21 2019
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Warmer onshore winds overriding cooler shelf waters have produced areas of dense sea fog this afternoon. This fog is expected to persist tonight and could linger until Saturday morning. Onshore winds will strengthen Friday night into Saturday as low pressure over the texas panhandle deepens. Another cold front will cross the coastal waters on Saturday afternoon.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Surfside Beach, TX
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location: 29.04, -95.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 212207
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
407 pm cst Thu feb 21 2019

Near term [through tonight]
Coastal trough or broad coastal low pressure is still situated
just east of the 42019 buoy which is clearly in warm sector
airmass with t TD in the low 70s and SE wind. Mesoanalysis shows
llj moving right over top the frontal boundary and main moisture
axis corresponds nicely with axis of shower activity through se
texas. Shower activity has waned this afternoon but still plenty
of drizzle and light rain to keep pops higher than what the radar
would indicate. Fog has developed as well and should continue to
spread inland with lifr ceilings. Overnight it appears these
trends will continue along with increasing sea fog in the bays and
along the coast.

Short term [Friday through Saturday night]
The main concern going for Friday and Saturday will be any severe
weather threat. In short there will be a strong trough that
develops tomorrow over the southern rockies. There may be a lead
vorticity MAX that could trigger a few storms mainly north of
huntsville by afternoon evening. The trick will be capping that
develops and if the vorticity advection is enough to erode capping
for a few storms. EML should be spreading over the area overnight
so question of whether there will be enough parameters in place
to get storms. SPC keeps with a marginal risk on day 2 outlook and
this looks reasonable.

Saturday pacific front pushes through during the middle of the
day. Again here, capping will be an issue although jet dynamics
may be more in phase for storms along the front. That said,
boundary layer flow is a bit more veered with 925 850mb more from
the SW ahead of the front. Better dynamics exist north of the area
towards the ARKLATEX to the miss river valley where SPC day 3 has
slight enhanced risk while leaving a sliver of marginal risk over
se texas. Again there are enough conditions out of phase that
while storms could form, severe thunderstorms may not be a threat.

Front clears through the afternoon with storms pushing east
fairly quickly. There will be some decent rainfall totals with
this activity but not enough for flooding concerns.

Long term [Sunday through Thursday]
Models are trying to come into better agreement Tuesday morning
with another isentropic lift event like we have had today and
earlier this week. Gfs ECMWF are in a little better agreement with
a cold front pushing through late next week but still some
substantial differences. Again like yesterday, ensembles and
blends of models seem to be the best forecast for now until there
is better consistency.

Overpeck

Aviation [18z TAF issuance]
Did not make a lot of changes from previous TAF set as we continue
with this wet messy pattern. Lifr and ifr CIGS vis to persist thru
the afternoon (and overnight) across our central southern sites as
the warm front slowly moves inland. Sea fog will remain an ongoing
issue at gls until the next cold front (sat afternoon). Otherwise,
with short-term models verifying well of late, another round of ts
tomorrow morning along the i-45 corridor near iah hou. 41

Marine
Sea fog looks to have returned across the bays nearshore waters this
afternoon and should persist through the overnight hours. The marine
dense fog advisory issued earlier this afternoon is currently on tap
through 9 am tomorrow morning but could be extended. These very fav-
orable conditions for sea fog will remain in place until the passage
of the next cold front (sat afternoon).

Otherwise, the light to moderate NE E winds tonight will be shifting
to the SE tomorrow with the passage of the coastal low and an assoc-
iated warm front. Deepening moisture and embedded disturbances aloft
will keep the weather here foggy drizzly with scattered showers fri
fri night.

The next cold front is still on track to move into the marine waters
late Saturday afternoon. This should end the fog threat as a strong
moderate offshore flow develops. A brief scec may be required across
the offshore waters in the wake of the front on sun. Winds will veer
to the e-ne on Sun night through early tues as high pressure settles
over the plains. This pattern should give us a fairly persistent and
deep easterly flow early next week... And could help to increase tide
levels at that time. Stay tuned. 41

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 51 65 59 70 41 30 50 60 60 0
houston (iah) 55 72 67 74 47 40 60 50 80 0
galveston (gls) 60 70 65 72 52 60 50 30 60 0

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... Dense fog advisory until 9 am cst Friday for the following
zones: coastal waters from freeport to matagorda ship
channel tx out 20 nm... Coastal waters from high island to
freeport tx out 20 nm... Galveston bay... Matagorda bay.

Small craft should exercise caution through Friday morning for
the following zones: coastal waters from freeport to
matagorda ship channel tx out 20 nm... Coastal waters from
high island to freeport tx out 20 nm.

Small craft should exercise caution until 4 pm cst this
afternoon for the following zones: waters from freeport to
matagorda ship channel tx from 20 to 60 nm... Waters from
high island to freeport tx from 20 to 60 nm.

Discussion... Overpeck
near term... Overpeck
short term... Overpeck
long term... Overpeck
aviation... 41
marine... 41
fire weather... 41


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LUIT2 4 mi52 min NNE 12 G 14 55°F 58°F1010.9 hPa
FCGT2 - 8772447 - USCG Freeport, TX 9 mi52 min NNE 9.9 G 13 56°F 57°F1011.2 hPa
FPST2 9 mi52 min N 11 G 14 55°F 57°F1010.4 hPa
42043 - GA-252 TABS B 15 mi130 min NE 18 G 21 60°F1010.8 hPa
GRRT2 24 mi58 min N 13 G 15 54°F 56°F1011.3 hPa
GTOT2 28 mi58 min NNE 8 G 9.9 56°F 57°F1010.9 hPa
SGNT2 30 mi64 min N 11 G 14 56°F 57°F1010.2 hPa
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 33 mi58 min NE 14 G 15 56°F 58°F1010.5 hPa
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 34 mi58 min NNE 8 G 12 54°F 57°F1011.8 hPa
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 43 mi40 min NE 16 G 18 59°F 62°F1011.5 hPa
EMAT2 45 mi52 min N 9.9 G 12 56°F 60°F1010.2 hPa
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 46 mi58 min N 8.9 G 11 53°F 58°F1011.6 hPa
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 48 mi58 min NNE 4.1 G 8 53°F 64°F1011.2 hPa
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 48 mi58 min NE 11 G 12 58°F 57°F1011.3 hPa

Wind History for USCG Freeport, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Angleton / Lake Jackson, Brazoria County Airport, TX16 mi77 minNNE 83.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist55°F54°F96%1011.3 hPa
Galveston, Scholes Field, TX23 mi78 minNNE 130.25 miFog56°F55°F97%1011 hPa

Wind History from LBX (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Christmas Point, Christmas Bay, Texas
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Christmas Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:27 AM CST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:54 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:06 AM CST     0.67 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:32 AM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:57 PM CST     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:14 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:47 PM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:51 PM CST     0.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Alligator Point, West Bay, Texas
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Alligator Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:29 AM CST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:54 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:13 AM CST     0.67 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:32 AM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:59 PM CST     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:14 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:47 PM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:58 PM CST     0.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.