Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dulac, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 6:28PM Thursday October 19, 2017 9:24 AM CDT (14:24 UTC) Moonrise 5:53AMMoonset 5:48PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ550 Coastal Waters From Port Fourchon La To Lower Atchafalaya River La Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From The Southwest Pass Of The Mississippi River To Port Fourchon Louisiana Out 20 Mile- 330 Am Cdt Thu Oct 19 2017
.small craft exercise caution in effect through this evening...
Today..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds.
Friday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday night..South winds near 10 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the late evening. Seas 2 feet building to 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..Northwest winds near 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Northwest winds near 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 330 Am Cdt Thu Oct 19 2017
Synopsis..Ridge of high pressure will remain anchored over the southeast into the weekend. A cold front will approach the coastal waters Sunday night into Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dulac, LA
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location: 29.06, -90.81     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 190839
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
339 am cdt Thu oct 19 2017

Synopsis
At the surface, high pressure off the virginia coast extends
southwestward into east texas. An upper ridge is currently
centered over the great plains states. Only some high cloudiness
moving across the area. Temperatures showing quite a wide range
across the area depending on proximity to very warm water.

Temperatures ranging from 51 at bogalusa to 76 at boothville.

Short term
High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to move
eastward over the next couple of days. This will allow moisture
levels to finally increase as easterly winds gain a southerly
component. Could start to see at least scattered showers south of
lake pontchartrain as early as Friday night, with showers storms
becoming likely across much of the area by Saturday afternoon.

High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s through
Saturday, which is about 5-8 degrees above normal. Overnight lows
will gradually moderate, with all areas in the 60s to lower 70s by
Saturday morning. This is a good 10-15 degrees above normal for
mid october. 35

Long term
Unfortunately, while the short term part of the forecast was
fairly straightforward, the long term portion is not. ECMWF and
gfs operational runs having difficulty resolving their differences
at 500 mb, with the GFS a good 12-24 hours faster at 500 mb by
Monday morning. Similar differences exist at the surface Sunday
afternoon. Previous forecast package was based close to the gfs.

That solution had a local frontal passage late Sunday or Sunday
night, and don't see any major reasons to make a switch. Only
question here is which model busts on Monday, as GFS is pretty
much dry with the ECMWF carrying likely pops for some portions of
the area. In coordination with surrounding offices, will carry
precipitation in the Monday forecast giving at least some credence
to the slower solution.

Once the frontal system clears the area, cooler weather returns
with temperatures near to below normal after Monday. Will go with
a middle of the road solution on temps, as it appears that the mex
numbers might be a little too cool. 35

Aviation
Vfr category conditions are expected at each of the terminals
throughout the TAF forecast period. 11

Marine
Moderate to occasionally strong easterly flow will continue across
the coastal waters through the end of the week. This will result in
exercise caution conditions that may flirt with small craft advisory
criteria at times, at least over the open gulf waters. The winds
will ease and shift to the southeast Sunday in advance of a cold
front that will move through the coastal waters Sunday night into
Monday. Moderate offshore flow will develop in the wake of this
front for the early part of the next work week. 11

Decision support
Dss code: green.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: none.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support.

Orange = high impacts; slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and or direct
tropical threats; events of national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 80 57 83 64 0 0 0 10
btr 82 58 84 67 0 0 10 10
asd 82 59 84 66 0 0 10 10
msy 81 68 83 71 0 0 10 20
gpt 81 62 83 68 0 0 10 10
pql 83 59 84 66 0 0 10 10

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SPLL1 - South Timbalier Block 52, LA / CSI06 22 mi144 min ENE 18 G 20
KXPY 33 mi29 min NE 14 72°F 68°F
EINL1 37 mi54 min E 14 G 16 69°F 74°F1020.2 hPa62°F
KSPR 38 mi29 min ENE 16 G 23 -40°F
AMRL1 - 8764227 - Amerada Pass, LA 39 mi54 min NE 5.1 G 8 67°F 74°F1020.8 hPa
LOPL1 - Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, LA 43 mi75 min ENE 15 G 19 77°F 4 ft1020.1 hPa
KEIR 46 mi29 min ENE 19
GISL1 - 8761724 - Grand Isle, LA 47 mi54 min NE 8.9 G 12 72°F 76°F1020.8 hPa
TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA 48 mi54 min NE 9.9 G 13 68°F 78°F1021.2 hPa

Wind History for LAWMA, Amerada Pass, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Fourchon, LA33 mi49 minNNE 1010.00 miFair72°F68°F88%1021 hPa

Wind History from XPY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE14NE11NE13E11E9
G16
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NE9NE7NE7E8E10NE8NE7NE8NE10NE9N10NE12
1 day agoNE14NE15NE14NE13
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2 days agoN15N15
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Tide / Current Tables for Caillou Boca, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Caillou Boca
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:52 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:07 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:52 AM CDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:12 PM CDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:28 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:47 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:20 PM CDT     1.43 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.11.110.80.80.70.70.60.70.70.80.80.90.9111.11.11.21.31.41.41.4

Tide / Current Tables for Raccoon Point, Caillou Bay, Louisiana
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Raccoon Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:52 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:56 AM CDT     0.99 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:07 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 02:12 PM CDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:29 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:48 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:18 PM CDT     1.88 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.61.61.41.31.21.11111.11.11.21.31.41.41.51.51.61.71.71.81.81.91.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.