Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dulac, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 7:55PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 1:56 AM CDT (06:56 UTC) Moonrise 3:35AMMoonset 4:38PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ550 Coastal Waters From Port Fourchon La To Lower Atchafalaya River La Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From The Southwest Pass Of The Mississippi River To Port Fourchon Louisiana Out 20 Mile- 1002 Pm Cdt Mon May 22 2017
.small craft exercise caution in effect through Tuesday evening...
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Thunderstorms in the morning. Showers through the day. Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 8 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 8 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds.
Thursday..Southwest winds near 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 1002 Pm Cdt Mon May 22 2017
Synopsis..A stalled frontal boundary will meander over the central gulf coast region through Tuesday before moving through the coastal waters Tuesday night into Wednesday. An area of low pressure is expected to move east along the frontal boundary tonight and early Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dulac, LA
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location: 29.06, -90.81     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 230118
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
818 pm cdt Mon may 22 2017

Sounding discussion...

moisture is still up in the sounding this evening with pw above
average at 1.8 inches. Winds are southwest at low levels then
become westerly by 500 mb. Instability is limited so much of the
rainfall overnight will be stratiform, though the possibility for
heavier rainfall remains across the la coast. Some areas of heavy
rain have developed just southwest of lafayette, but the
strongest convection remains over the northern gulf.

Krautmann

Prev discussion /issued 438 pm cdt Mon may 22 2017/
discussion...

large scale pattern will feature a longwave trough deepening from
the upper mississippi valley down to the southern plains and
western gulf coast region tonight through Tuesday night, with the
associated cold front meandering over the forecast area. The
frontal boundary will continue to occasionally act as a focus for
showers and thunderstorms as a series of minor shortwave troughs
and one or more weak surface lows/waves move through the forecast
area. This will also keep some upper level difluence over much of
the area, but generally shifting towards the coast, to the east
and offshore heading into Tuesday. The 12z GFS is fairly
aggressive lowering the precipitable water from the northwest
later tonight, and it may be a bit too aggressive, so have
compromised by blending in the ECMWF which keeps some heavier rain
a bit longer (between 1 and 7 am) tonight/Tuesday morning over
the far northwest. Current radar and pattern trends are indicating
the more concentrated thunderstorms and higher rainfall rates
should move across coastal regions and south of i-10 as we start
the evening with a more general moderate rainfall with embedded
thunderstorms over northern areas.

With this solution and the latest wpc QPF guidance, the flash
flood watch ending time has been pushed back to 4 am tonight
across northwest areas from metro baton rouge to washington parish
and points north. The remainder of the area now will have a noon
Tuesday expiration of the watch. While the dry air will cut back
on the average QPF amounts, there could still be occasional
scattered showers and thunderstorms going into Tuesday night as
the cold air advection reactivates the frontal boundary and pushes
it southeast. This will usher in the cooler and drier air
Wednesday into Wednesday night with highs expected to be mostly
in the 70s to near 80 with lows in the 50s to lower 60s.

Enjoy the pleasant conditions while you can as the airmass will
be quite transient with return flow already back over the region
early Friday morning. In fact the pattern is progressive enough
that it now looks like we could see some rain return next weekend,
but more likely Sunday into Sunday night with more isolated
activity Saturday. 22/td
aviation...

most convection well back to the southwest, between lch and lft at
this time, and threat of tsra in the short term is fairly low.

Ceilings primarily MVFR and anticipate that MVFR ceilings will
become prevailing condition at most terminals by sunset. Will carry
vcts after about 03z at all terminals, but once location of primary
development becomes more apparent, amendments will be necessary to
beef up threat. Local ifr conditions will be likely in
thunderstorms. Thunderstorm threat will continue through 18z
Tuesday before diminishing from northwest to southeast. 35
marine...

a cold front will remain stationary over near coastal areas
through Tuesday. Winds will increase some tonight as a low rides
along the front, and with that in mind have maintained exercise
caution headlines for most of the waters. A fairly strong late
may cold front may also bring some west to northwest winds over 15
knots during the late Wednesday to Wednesday night periods, but
models have been consistent keeping most areas below 20 knots. An
area of high pressure is then expected to move from west to east
across the north gulf Wednesday night and Thursday which will
bring a return of moderate south winds Thursday night into Friday.

22
decision support...

dss code... Yellow.

Deployed... None.

Activation... None.

Activities... Monitoring heavy rain potential/flash flood watch
monitoring mississippi river flooding
decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action
blue = long fused watch/warning/advisory in effect or high
visibility event
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused
watch/warning/advisory issuances; radar support
orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes
red = full engagement for moderate tonight risk svr
and/or direct tropical threats; events of national
significance

Preliminary point temps/pops
Mcb 64 82 60 74 / 90 40 50 10
btr 68 82 62 75 / 90 50 40 10
asd 70 83 63 78 / 90 70 40 20
msy 73 83 66 77 / 90 80 50 20
gpt 73 81 67 78 / 90 80 50 30
pql 68 82 65 80 / 90 80 50 30

Lix watches/warnings/advisories
La... Flash flood watch through Tuesday morning for laz040-056>070.

Flash flood watch until 4 am cdt Tuesday for laz034>037-039-
046>050-071-072.

Gm... None.

Ms... Flash flood watch through Tuesday morning for msz077-080>082.

Flash flood watch until 4 am cdt Tuesday for msz068>071.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SPLL1 - South Timbalier Block 52, LA / CSI06 22 mi117 min SSW 22 G 26
KXPY 33 mi22 min S 12 77°F 72°F
EINL1 37 mi39 min SW 24 G 28 78°F 74°F1008.6 hPa74°F
KSPR 38 mi22 min SSW 31 75°F 70°F
AMRL1 - 8764227 - Amerada Pass, LA 39 mi39 min S 7 G 12 77°F 73°F1008.7 hPa
LOPL1 - Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, LA 43 mi89 min S 24 G 28 77°F 2 ft1010.1 hPa
GRBL1 44 mi117 min SSE 18 G 22 1011.4 hPa (-1.2)
KEIR 46 mi22 min SSW 23 G 28 75°F 72°F
GISL1 - 8761724 - Grand Isle, LA 47 mi39 min S 16 G 23 73°F 80°F1010.8 hPa
TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA 48 mi39 min S 8.9 G 12 75°F 73°F1009.4 hPa

Wind History for LAWMA, Amerada Pass, LA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Fourchon, LA33 mi62 minS 14 G 229.00 miOvercast77°F73°F89%1011.2 hPa

Wind History from XPY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmNE5N10N7NE10E8E11E12E11E9E7E6SE5E5SE8SE11
G16
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S9S12SE10
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SE12
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1 day agoS7S6S5S5SW4SW5SW6SW5SW7S8S10SE13
G18
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SE13S8S145S4SE7NW7SE9S7
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2 days agoSE12
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SE11SE10SE9SE11SE10
G16
SE10SE10SE11SE11SE11SE12SE12S10S11S11S7S9S8S9S7
G13
S10

Tide / Current Tables for Caillou Boca, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Caillou Boca
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:34 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:07 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:56 AM CDT     1.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:38 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:52 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:06 PM CDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.60.70.70.80.911.11.21.21.21.110.90.70.50.40.20.10.1000.10.2

Tide / Current Tables for Raccoon Point, Caillou Bay, Louisiana
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Raccoon Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:35 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:08 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:42 AM CDT     1.62 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:38 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:22 PM CDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:53 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.911.11.21.31.41.51.61.61.61.61.41.310.80.50.30.20.10.10.20.30.50.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.