Sunday, December16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ponce Inlet, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 5:29PM Sunday December 16, 2018 9:38 PM EST (02:38 UTC) Moonrise 1:27PMMoonset 12:53AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 401 Pm Est Sun Dec 16 2018
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Monday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 5 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Showers and chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Chance of showers.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 401 Pm Est Sun Dec 16 2018
Synopsis..High pressure over the central us will move east and push offshore the carolina coast Wednesday. Northwest flow will persist through Monday then veer northeast Tuesday as wind speeds decrease. A developing storm system over the southeast states will lead to increasingly hazardous marine conditions along with a renewed chance for offshore moving storms Thursday.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Thursday, december 13th. 46 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 33 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 27 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 19 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 12 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ponce Inlet, FL
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location: 29.1, -80.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 162100
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
400 pm est Sun dec 16 2018

Discussion
Dry weather through Tuesday with an increasing chance for
showers and storms Thursday...

tonight mon... Diurnal CU field will decrease this evening and
cool, dry NW flow will allow temps to fall into the mid and upper
40s across the interior and lower 50s along the coast which is
just slightly below normal. Some drier air will advect in at the
low levels so do not expect to see any fog and we will not see as
much cumulus development on Monday. But there will be an increase
in moisture aloft resulting in more cirrus. MAX temps Monday will
be a few degrees below normal despite more sunshine with mid to
upper 60s orlando CAPE northward and near 70 from okeechobee to
the treasure coast south brevard.

Mon night-tue night... A mid to upper level ridge will extend from
the north central gulf towards the central plains on Mon night and
shift to the east coast on Tuesday. Locally, a relatively weak
pressure gradient over the fl peninsula will keep light winds from
the nnw to N through Tuesday morning, turning from the NE tue
afternoon. Low temperatures on Mon night will be in the mid 40s to
low 50s and highs on Tue will range from the upper 60s to low 70s.

Pwat values will remain below half an inch with stable conditions
and no rain in the forecast. For Tue night, moisture will start to
increase but it will not be sufficient (~0.75 inches) to produce
chances for rain. Lows will range from the mid 40s to near 50 for
north of i-4 and interior areas while for the space and treasure
coast temps will bottom out in the mid to upper 50s.

Wed-Friday... This period will start with a high pressure over the
coastal carolinas and on its way to the atlantic. Rapidly behind it,
a deepening trough digging south towards texas will be the feature
to watch. This trough will slowly make its way towards the southeast
u.S. And trigger the development of a low pressure at the surface
over central mississippi valley by Thursday morning. Ahead of the
trough, caribbean and gulf moisture will be picked up and will be
brought to fl on wed, starting to reach our forecast area from the
south. At the same time, the pressure gradient will increase over
the peninsula as the low moves towards the southeast u.S. And the
high over the western atlantic. Both GFS and euro have been
consistent with their solution for this system, although the gfs
projects it to be stronger and a bit father away from fl.

Regardless, rounds of showers and strong thunderstorms are expected
to affect our area on Thursday through Friday. The current forecast
already reflects this expectation and will probably be adjusted up
as confidence increases. On fri, the trough will move north and
away from fl, decreasing moisture and temperatures (to the 60s).

But winds will remain breezy over land and waters.

Fri night-sun... Fri night could be a transition period, if we go with
the euro which still shows lingering moisture over the area while
the GFS is drier. But from Sat to sun, a ridge over the gulf will
move in as a high pressure, keeping weather conditions in the dry
and cooler side with no rain chances and temperatures dropping to
the low 40s to near 50 on Sat night and on Sun remaining mostly
below 70 as winds finally stay from the NW advecting colder and
drier air.

Aviation
Vfr CIGS of 035-045 agl will break up by 00z. Cirrus is forecast
to increase overnight into Monday but conditions will beVFR with
light northwest winds 10 knots or less.

Marine
Tonight mon... Northwest winds 10-15 knots over the open atlc this
evening will decrease to around 10 knots Monday. This offshore
flow will keep seas near the coast suppressed 2-3 ft but up to 5
ft well offshore. Seas will subside slightly to 4 ft offshore by
Monday as pressure gradient slackens a bit.

Mon night-wed... Light to gentle breezes will veer from north to
southeast, from Mon night to Wed as a high pressure over the mid-
atlantic states reaches the atlantic waters during this period.

Seas 2-3 feet.

Wed night-fri... Starting on Wed night, weather conditions will
start to deteriorate as a strong trough and low pressure dig south
from central u.S. To the southeast u.S. And northern fl. Stormy
weather will reach the waters from Wed night through at least
Friday and winds will really pick up speed. West to southwest
winds will surpass advisory criteria (~20 knots) on Thursday
morning, reaching 25-30 knots over the offshore waters late thu
night into Fri night. Both GFS and euro are currently projecting
this scenario for this period and was included in our forecast.

Seas forecast to reach 7 to 9 feet well offshore, creating
hazardous boating conditions for the end of the work week.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 47 66 48 67 0 0 0 0
mco 49 66 48 71 0 0 0 0
mlb 51 70 51 71 0 0 0 0
vrb 50 70 50 71 0 0 0 0
lee 47 66 46 69 0 0 0 0
sfb 47 66 47 70 0 0 0 0
orl 48 66 49 71 0 0 0 0
fpr 50 70 50 71 10 0 0 0

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Short term... Kelly
long term... .Negron


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 42 mi114 min W 1.9 55°F 1021 hPa55°F
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 51 mi57 min W 6 G 8 63°F 67°F1021.1 hPa
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 55 mi39 min NNW 8.9 G 11 55°F 61°F1020.5 hPa (+1.5)

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Smyrna Beach Municipal Airport, FL3 mi1.9 hrsN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy61°F55°F83%1020 hPa
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL8 mi46 minWSW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy56°F54°F93%1019.7 hPa
Ormond Beach, Ormond Beach Municipal Airport, FL17 mi2.8 hrsN 07.00 miFair55°F55°F100%1019 hPa

Wind History from EVB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm----------------W3N4N4NW4NW4NW6W7W7SW7W9W6CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoE5----------------SW4SW5W7W7W8W8W8W10W8W7W9SW7SW3SW3Calm
2 days agoS8----------------CalmE4CalmS8S10
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CalmCalmNE12NE12
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Tide / Current Tables for Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside), Florida (2)
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Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside)
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:53 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 02:31 AM EST     2.13 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:54 AM EST     0.67 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:26 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:47 PM EST     2.23 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:27 PM EST     0.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.92.12.121.71.310.70.70.81.11.51.92.22.22.11.81.410.70.50.50.7

Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach (Ocean), Florida
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Daytona Beach (Ocean)
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:54 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 02:08 AM EST     3.56 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:13 AM EST     0.95 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:26 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:17 PM EST     3.59 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:36 PM EST     0.50 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.83.33.63.432.41.71.211.11.52.12.83.33.63.53.12.41.610.60.50.91.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.