Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Samsula-Spruce Creek, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 6:18PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 10:23 AM EST (15:23 UTC) Moonrise 7:42PMMoonset 7:53AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 1004 Am Est Wed Feb 20 2019
.small craft exercise caution...
This afternoon..Southeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Friday..South winds 5 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Slight chance of showers.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 1004 Am Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Synopsis..A large high pressure over the eastern u.s. And western atlantic will settle north of puerto rico, with its axis extending westward across central florida into the weekend. Offshore flow will develop Sunday ahead of a weak cold front that will push into north florida.
Gulf stream hazards..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with seas 5 to 7 feet. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday february 18th. 40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 28 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 26 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 16 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Samsula-Spruce Creek, FL
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location: 29.1, -81.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 200742
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
240 am est Wed feb 20 2019

Discussion
Temperatures well above normal will continue into this weekend...

current... Warm frontal boundary just to the north of lake volusia
counties is well-denoted by the large area of stratus to its north.

A strong surface ridge centered well to our NE covers the eastern
conus and adjacent western atlantic. Mid-upper level ridge remains
anchored over central-south florida and the bahamas. Local radars
show some light rain showers sprinkles embedded in area of marine
sc across south fl and near the southern treasure coast moving wnw.

Today-tonight... Persistent warm wx pattern featuring se-s flow will
continue today as ecfl remains under the influence of ridging both
surface and aloft. Shallow low level moisture may lead to a few low
topped diurnally forced showers along local sea and lake breeze
boundaries, mainly where more than one interact. Late day collision
should lead to a slightly better chance near NW of i-4 between about
5-10pm per hrrr WRF mesomodel guidance. MAX temps once again in the
l-m80s near the coast and m-u80s inland. Mins in the m-u60s, with
l70s along the immediate space and treasure coast barrier islands.

Thursday-Friday... An anomalous ridge will remain centered just east
of the bahamas into the weekend. The resultant S SE flow will
promote unusually warm temperatures for late february, with both
maxes and mins about 10-15 degrees above climatology. While the
presence of the ridge will keep the environment rather suppressed
aloft, pockets of near-surface moisture rounding its western flank
will lead to isolated showers from time to time. Opted for small
precip chances on Thursday and Friday, mainly in the form of
nocturnal coastal showers and low-topped diurnal showers on land.

Saturday-Tuesday... The mid level ridge will very slowly weaken and
flatten into early next week as a sharp short wave trough and its
attendant low lift rapidly into the ohio valley and great lakes.

Meanwhile, its trailing surface front will get left behind and sag
down the peninsula Sunday night and Monday before lifting back north
on Tuesday. Recent guidance suggests the front could make it into
south florida before stalling, providing perhaps slightly cooler
temperatures and a brief respite from mentionable rain chances on
Monday (at least across the northern half of the area). Otherwise,
we will see a continuation of above normal temps and isolated to
scattered showers, though a weak wave low riding along the lifting
front could bring enhanced shower chances on Tuesday.

Aviation MainlyVFR. Marine sc CIGS bkn030 kvrb-ksua, which
may become diurnally enhanced from mid-late morning (14z-18z),
before sea breeze circ breaks them up and pushes them inland.

Marine Today-tonight... Marginal SCA conditions well offshore today
with 15-20kt se-sse wind, seas 4-5ft near shore and as high as 6-7ft
seas limited to the outer periphery of the 60nm legs. Winds and seas
will start to diminish late this afternoon, and subsequent shift(s)
may be able to expire it prior to 06z depending on how fast they
actually start to wane.

Thursday-Sunday... High pressure centered east of the bahamas and
extending across the state will maintain 10-15 knots of S SE flow
into Saturday. Seas 4-5 feet early Thursday then generally 3-4 feet.

An approaching front will cause winds to veer to S SW and increase
Sunday as an incoming swell builds seas back up to 5 feet offshore.

Climate Record highs and warm mins for the next two days...

feb 20 feb 21
hi-max hi-min hi-max hi-min
dab 85 1988 69 2018 87 1989 69 2018
mco 89 1988 69 1961 88 1989 68 1989
sfb 85 2018 68 1961 87 2003 67 2018
mlb 86 1988 75 2018 88 1989 75 2018
vrb 87 1975 73 2018 87 2014 73 2018
fpr 88 1932 73 2018 89 1989 73 1961

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 81 65 83 65 20 30 20 20
mco 86 66 88 66 20 20 20 20
mlb 84 69 84 68 20 10 20 20
vrb 83 68 84 67 20 20 20 20
lee 85 66 88 66 30 30 20 20
sfb 85 66 87 66 20 30 20 20
orl 85 67 87 67 20 30 20 20
fpr 83 69 84 67 20 20 20 20

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... Small craft advisory until 11 pm est this evening for flagler
beach to volusia-brevard county line 20-60 nm-sebastian
inlet to jupiter inlet 20-60 nm-volusia-brevard county line
to sebastian inlet 20-60 nm.

Short term aviation... Cristaldi
long term impact wx... Ulrich


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 39 mi98 min ESE 2.9 65°F 1022 hPa65°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 53 mi23 min N 8 G 8 60°F 61°F1021.2 hPa (+0.9)
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 55 mi41 min SSE 8 G 9.9 70°F 69°F1022.4 hPa

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL7 mi30 minSSE 9 G 1610.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F71°F82%1020.7 hPa
New Smyrna Beach Municipal Airport, FL10 mi36 minSSE 1410.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F69°F79%1021.3 hPa
Ormond Beach, Ormond Beach Municipal Airport, FL14 mi33 minSE 10 G 175.00 miFog/Mist75°F75°F100%1020.7 hPa
Orlando / Sanford Airport, FL23 mi30 minSSE 10 G 1510.00 miOvercast76°F71°F85%1020.6 hPa

Wind History from DAB (wind in knots)
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E7E10E10E7E54SE643SE4Calm534CalmCalmCalmSE346
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1 day agoSW7SW9SW8S7SW7S8S6SW5N10NE11N14N11N10N8N7N11N12
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2 days agoS7S6S10
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S10SW8SW5CalmCalmS5S4S5S3S3S3S4S4S5SW5S3CalmS3S6S8

Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier), Florida
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Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier)
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:53 AM EST     -0.88 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:51 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:19 AM EST     5.37 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:33 PM EST     -0.70 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:17 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:41 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:42 PM EST     4.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.3-0.6-0.9-0.40.623.54.75.35.24.32.91.40.1-0.6-0.601.12.53.84.64.84.23

Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier), Florida (3)
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Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier)
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:45 AM EST     0.84 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:51 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:17 AM EST     7.02 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:23 PM EST     1.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:17 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:41 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:41 PM EST     6.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.10.91.42.43.85.26.476.85.94.531.81.21.31.934.35.56.36.45.84.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.