Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Samsula-Spruce Creek, FL
May 18, 2024 6:12 AM EDT (10:12 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:28 AM Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 2:58 PM Moonset 2:39 AM |
AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 330 Am Edt Sat May 18 2024
Today - Southwest winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast this afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Wave detail: east 1 foot at 4 seconds and east 1 foot at 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers late this morning. A chance of showers early this afternoon. A chance of Thunderstorms this afternoon. Showers likely late.
Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 4 seconds and east 1 foot at 9 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday - West winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Wave detail: west 2 feet at 3 seconds and northeast 1 foot at 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: west 1 foot at 3 seconds and east 1 foot at 9 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then a slight chance of showers after midnight.
Monday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon and evening, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: north 3 feet at 6 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers, then a slight chance of showers.
Tuesday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming around 5 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: northeast 3 feet at 8 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 952 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis - The atlantic ridge will continue to influence the state of florida through late week. Poor boating conditions are expected to develop Wednesday night into Thursday with increasing south to southwest winds. A frontal boundary is forecast to ease into central florida and the local atlantic waters Friday night and Saturday then become nearly stationary with scattered showers and lightning storms forecast to develop over the local waters.
Gulf stream hazards - South winds increasing 15 to 20 knots this evening.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 6th.
40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 6th.
40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
FXUS62 KMLB 180857 AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 457 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
New DISCUSSION, MARINE, CLIMATE
DISCUSSION
Issued at 457 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
This Morning...Patchy fog has begun to develop across portions of the Treasure Coast early this morning with surface observations reporting localized visibility as low as a half mile. There continues to remain low confidence in additional fog development across portions of the northwest interior including Lake and western Orange counties. If encountering localized visibility reductions due to fog while driving, slow down, use low-beam headlights, and increase following distance. Any fog which develops is expected to lift shortly after sunrise.
Today...Early morning IR satellite imagery shows a band of ongoing convection stretching across Louisiana into Mississippi ahead of a frontal boundary. 00Z CAM guidance suggests increasing convection as the feature tracks eastward through the morning with a low developing along the boundary as it moves across the Florida panhandle. The band of convection then loses organization on its approach to towards the Florida peninsula. Guidance further suggests a moisture boundary ahead of the main convective boundary with modeled PWATs increasing to around 1.8-1.9" across portions of east central Florida. The moisture boundary is expected to interact with a pinned east coast sea breeze in the afternoon, sparking scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms near the coast.
Elsewhere, scattered showers and storms are still forecast, driven by diurnal heating and outflow boundary collisions. Steep low level lapse rates and CAPE values greater than 2,000 J/kg could support strong updraft growth, particularly in developing convection along the sea breeze. Dry air aloft could be supportive of strong downdrafts with localized wind gust up to 60 mph. Additional hazards include coin-sized hail and cloud-to-ground lightning strikes. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out along boundary collisions. SPC has included a day one Marginal Risk for all coastal counties and western portions of the interior counties for strong to severe storms which could develop this afternoon.
Before convection begins to bubble up, heat will be of concern.
Anomalous ridging aloft will support above seasonal temperatures into the afternoon, generally ranging within two degrees of records at the local climate sites. Conditions become muggy with increasing moisture, and peak heat index values are forecast to widely range 104-110 degrees. As a result, a Heat Advisory has been issued for southern Brevard, Okeechobee, and the Treasure Coast counties today.
If pursuing outdoor activities, take frequent breaks in shaded or air conditioned areas and ensure you stay hydrated.
Sunday...The aforementioned frontal boundary sinks southeastward on Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers and isolated lightning storms are forecast to approach the I-4 corridor ahead of sunrise.
Coverage then becomes numerous into the afternoon with PoPs increasing between 50-70 percent. Strong to marginally severe storms are in play again on Sunday. Areas across the south will have the most favorable environment for strong to severe storms as the line of convection approaches closer to peak day time heating. Here, modeled CAPE values range 2,000-2,500 J/kg while low level lapse rates remain steep with a minimal inversion in place above 850mb. A dry air layer persists aloft, but to a less extent than what was present the day prior. While the most favorable environment lies southward, SPC has included all of east central Florida in a Marginal Risk of severe storms. Greatest hazards with any developing storms ahead of the front include localized damaging wind gusts, cloud-to-ground lightning strikes and coin-sized hail.
Increasing cloud cover will help to regulate afternoon temperatures with a gradient in place from north to south. Earlier cloud cover keeps temperatures along and north of the I-4 corridor in the mid to upper 80s while upper 80s to low 90s build southward.
Monday-Friday...The cold front pushes south of the area into Monday.
Mid level troughing then builds across the western Atlantic stretching across the state of Florida. Troughing is pushed further offshore into mid week as ridging slides eastward across the Gulf, extending into Florida by Wednesday. Showers and storms remain in the forecast Monday (50-60%), and PoPs gradually dwindle each day through mid week. Temperatures generally ranging the mid 80s to lower 90s Monday and Tuesday warm through the remainder of the week. Highs are forecast to range the low to mid 90s by Friday.
MARINE
Issued at 457 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
Today-Tonight...West to southwest winds around 5-10 kts back southward as the east coast sea breeze develops in the afternoon.
The sea breeze will remain pinned to the coast with scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms developing along it.
Isolated severe storms with wind gusts up to 34 kts will be possible. Coverage may linger into the late evening. Seas of 2-3 ft persist.
Sunday-Wednesday...Coverage of showers and storms return across the local waters on Sunday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. A few storms could become strong to marginally severe with localized wind gusts of 34 kts. West to southwest winds around 10 kts on Sunday veer north into Monday as the cold front moves southward across the waters. Light onshore flow then develops from Tuesday onward. Seas of 2-3 ft increase to 4-5 ft across the Gulf Stream Monday night, subsiding Tuesday night.
CLIMATE
Issued at 457 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
Today's High Temperature Records
Site Temp. Last Set DAB 97 1995 LEE 98 1996 SFB 95 2002 MCO 97 1930 MLB 96 1995 VRB 96 1995 FPR 98 1995
AVIATION
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 205 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
VFR expected to continue thru a majority of the TAF with coastal terminals preparing for VCTS/TSRA after 18z-20z. This morning, 08z-12z, VRB may experience MVFR VIS due to BR forming after earlier rains. Winds remain light and at times, variable, becoming SSW after 12z.
The ECSB forms after 17z with winds locally backing to the SSE near coastal sites. Scattered TSRA, some strong and capable of producing IFR conditions, are forecast along the coast. However, lower confidence VCTS is possible as far inland as LEE/MCO/ISM after 18z-20z as well. Activity will dissipate and drift offshore beyond 02z. At MCO, VCSH was included as low-confidence -SHRA ahead of a cold front may approach after 09z Sun.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 93 72 86 69 / 70 30 60 30 MCO 95 75 86 71 / 40 20 60 30 MLB 91 74 89 70 / 60 40 70 50 VRB 94 73 91 69 / 60 30 70 50 LEE 92 74 85 71 / 40 50 60 20 SFB 95 74 87 70 / 50 30 60 30 ORL 95 75 87 72 / 40 20 60 30 FPR 94 72 91 69 / 60 30 70 50
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ058-154-159-164-254-259-264-547-647-747.
AM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 457 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
New DISCUSSION, MARINE, CLIMATE
DISCUSSION
Issued at 457 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
This Morning...Patchy fog has begun to develop across portions of the Treasure Coast early this morning with surface observations reporting localized visibility as low as a half mile. There continues to remain low confidence in additional fog development across portions of the northwest interior including Lake and western Orange counties. If encountering localized visibility reductions due to fog while driving, slow down, use low-beam headlights, and increase following distance. Any fog which develops is expected to lift shortly after sunrise.
Today...Early morning IR satellite imagery shows a band of ongoing convection stretching across Louisiana into Mississippi ahead of a frontal boundary. 00Z CAM guidance suggests increasing convection as the feature tracks eastward through the morning with a low developing along the boundary as it moves across the Florida panhandle. The band of convection then loses organization on its approach to towards the Florida peninsula. Guidance further suggests a moisture boundary ahead of the main convective boundary with modeled PWATs increasing to around 1.8-1.9" across portions of east central Florida. The moisture boundary is expected to interact with a pinned east coast sea breeze in the afternoon, sparking scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms near the coast.
Elsewhere, scattered showers and storms are still forecast, driven by diurnal heating and outflow boundary collisions. Steep low level lapse rates and CAPE values greater than 2,000 J/kg could support strong updraft growth, particularly in developing convection along the sea breeze. Dry air aloft could be supportive of strong downdrafts with localized wind gust up to 60 mph. Additional hazards include coin-sized hail and cloud-to-ground lightning strikes. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out along boundary collisions. SPC has included a day one Marginal Risk for all coastal counties and western portions of the interior counties for strong to severe storms which could develop this afternoon.
Before convection begins to bubble up, heat will be of concern.
Anomalous ridging aloft will support above seasonal temperatures into the afternoon, generally ranging within two degrees of records at the local climate sites. Conditions become muggy with increasing moisture, and peak heat index values are forecast to widely range 104-110 degrees. As a result, a Heat Advisory has been issued for southern Brevard, Okeechobee, and the Treasure Coast counties today.
If pursuing outdoor activities, take frequent breaks in shaded or air conditioned areas and ensure you stay hydrated.
Sunday...The aforementioned frontal boundary sinks southeastward on Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers and isolated lightning storms are forecast to approach the I-4 corridor ahead of sunrise.
Coverage then becomes numerous into the afternoon with PoPs increasing between 50-70 percent. Strong to marginally severe storms are in play again on Sunday. Areas across the south will have the most favorable environment for strong to severe storms as the line of convection approaches closer to peak day time heating. Here, modeled CAPE values range 2,000-2,500 J/kg while low level lapse rates remain steep with a minimal inversion in place above 850mb. A dry air layer persists aloft, but to a less extent than what was present the day prior. While the most favorable environment lies southward, SPC has included all of east central Florida in a Marginal Risk of severe storms. Greatest hazards with any developing storms ahead of the front include localized damaging wind gusts, cloud-to-ground lightning strikes and coin-sized hail.
Increasing cloud cover will help to regulate afternoon temperatures with a gradient in place from north to south. Earlier cloud cover keeps temperatures along and north of the I-4 corridor in the mid to upper 80s while upper 80s to low 90s build southward.
Monday-Friday...The cold front pushes south of the area into Monday.
Mid level troughing then builds across the western Atlantic stretching across the state of Florida. Troughing is pushed further offshore into mid week as ridging slides eastward across the Gulf, extending into Florida by Wednesday. Showers and storms remain in the forecast Monday (50-60%), and PoPs gradually dwindle each day through mid week. Temperatures generally ranging the mid 80s to lower 90s Monday and Tuesday warm through the remainder of the week. Highs are forecast to range the low to mid 90s by Friday.
MARINE
Issued at 457 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
Today-Tonight...West to southwest winds around 5-10 kts back southward as the east coast sea breeze develops in the afternoon.
The sea breeze will remain pinned to the coast with scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms developing along it.
Isolated severe storms with wind gusts up to 34 kts will be possible. Coverage may linger into the late evening. Seas of 2-3 ft persist.
Sunday-Wednesday...Coverage of showers and storms return across the local waters on Sunday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. A few storms could become strong to marginally severe with localized wind gusts of 34 kts. West to southwest winds around 10 kts on Sunday veer north into Monday as the cold front moves southward across the waters. Light onshore flow then develops from Tuesday onward. Seas of 2-3 ft increase to 4-5 ft across the Gulf Stream Monday night, subsiding Tuesday night.
CLIMATE
Issued at 457 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
Today's High Temperature Records
Site Temp. Last Set DAB 97 1995 LEE 98 1996 SFB 95 2002 MCO 97 1930 MLB 96 1995 VRB 96 1995 FPR 98 1995
AVIATION
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 205 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
VFR expected to continue thru a majority of the TAF with coastal terminals preparing for VCTS/TSRA after 18z-20z. This morning, 08z-12z, VRB may experience MVFR VIS due to BR forming after earlier rains. Winds remain light and at times, variable, becoming SSW after 12z.
The ECSB forms after 17z with winds locally backing to the SSE near coastal sites. Scattered TSRA, some strong and capable of producing IFR conditions, are forecast along the coast. However, lower confidence VCTS is possible as far inland as LEE/MCO/ISM after 18z-20z as well. Activity will dissipate and drift offshore beyond 02z. At MCO, VCSH was included as low-confidence -SHRA ahead of a cold front may approach after 09z Sun.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 93 72 86 69 / 70 30 60 30 MCO 95 75 86 71 / 40 20 60 30 MLB 91 74 89 70 / 60 40 70 50 VRB 94 73 91 69 / 60 30 70 50 LEE 92 74 85 71 / 40 50 60 20 SFB 95 74 87 70 / 50 30 60 30 ORL 95 75 87 72 / 40 20 60 30 FPR 94 72 91 69 / 60 30 70 50
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ058-154-159-164-254-259-264-547-647-747.
AM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 41070 | 22 mi | 97 min | 77°F | 2 ft | ||||
| GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL | 39 mi | 87 min | W 1.9 | 73°F | 29.95 | 68°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KDAB DAYTONA BEACH INTL,FL | 7 sm | 19 min | SSW 07 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 73°F | 72°F | 94% | 29.90 | |
| KDED DELAND MUNISIDNEY H TAYLOR FIELD,FL | 8 sm | 17 min | SSW 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 75°F | 72°F | 89% | 29.93 | |
| KSFB ORLANDO SANFORD INTL,FL | 23 sm | 19 min | SSW 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 75°F | 73°F | 94% | 29.92 |
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Daytona Beach Shores, Sunglow Pier, Florida, Tide feet
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Ponce Inlet, Halifax River, Florida, Tide feet
Melbourne, FL,
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